It was another volatile AFL tips in AFL Round 3 with upsets again as we go into our review of our AFL tips bettingfor round 3 and we move toward Round 4 of what looks and appears to be another excellent betting season adopting our HBM Human Behaviour Model of analysis of peak performance and bounce teams in the AFL to select our Expert AFL tips.
We have two teams on the top of the table 3-0 Geelong and Brisbane, three down the bottom on 0-3 and a bottle neck in the middle with 13 teams either 2-1 or 1-2. This is music to our ears and creates excellent AFL tips bettingpossibilities with our Expert AFL tips.
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Crows Wobbly, Cats are the Real Deal
AFL tips betting Thursday night was at Adelaide Oval and despite being only three rounds into the season the Geelong Cats have announced themselves as an AFL tips betting force to be reckoned with now covering the line handicap three times in a triple peak performance to open the season.
They have beaten Collingwood at the MCG, smashing Melbourne at home then on a five day back up they headed to Adelaide and disposed of the Crows.
Adelaide on the other hand are under pressure, they have lost both games at home now and their players look confused, jumpy and opposition teams have totally shut down their ball movement from half back and they are stumped on what to do. We made comment in our game preview last week about that their scoring had dried up and the Crows tall and small forwards look lazy not working up the ground to give their mids options and at the same time anytime there might be a good option the midfield regularly turn the ball over.
It is possible Adelaide have “overcorrected” again, for the second year running. After losing the AFL Grand Final in 2017 the coaching staff went overboard with a “fire and brimstone” approach and it failed terribly. They totally lost the trust of the playing group and the treatment and criticism at times were very personal, the hurt ran deep. In an attempt to have a “happy” feeling around the club the coaching staff in this off season have gone to far the opposite direction they wanted to make training “fun” again and a nice place to be, we understand that players had to bring jokes to training it all sounded really manufactured stuff.
Adelaide are missing the point, the coaching staff need to be authentic and just be who they are, no doubt this is what they did in 2017 and it nearly got them to the holy grail, its possibly they are too far gone as trust is lost and that can only mean one thing…a coaching change. Adelaide just need to do “normal” again and their fortunes may turn.
As for Geelong, with a great mix of youth and experience they are up and about and all at the Cattery will be feeling good about the AFL world as they sit 3-0 top of table on a triple peak performance run headed to a big game versus GWS.
Essendon apply the Blowtorch in the “Blowtorch Battle”
The fire brigade may be needed to Melbourne’s training ground “Gosch’s Paddock” this week as the blowtorch launches into overdrive against the Demons. A season that promised so much on the back of them marching into AFL Finals 2018 is almost torn up in tatters after only three rounds with a 0-3 start and history is most certainly against them making this years AFL finals.
In the Past 11 years there have been 36 sides start 0-3 only one has gone on to make the finals, this was the Swans in 2017, so the heat is about to be turned up big time on Goodwin. In AFL bets tipping that makes Melbourne $1.03 to miss the AFL Finals 2019 and you can currently get $1.35 making this a nice play in the AFL tips betting Futures markets.
We call it “Rip, Shit and Bust” Football
There was something extremely evident out of this game, defence is a dirty word around these two teams on Friday night it was free flowing end to end combat with a colossal 52 shots at goal between the two teams and a total combined score of 242 points. We call it AFL “Rip, Shit and Bust” Football, all very exciting but can it take you into an AFL Grand Final.
We doubt it as most reputable AFL experts will tell you that premierships are built on a solid defense that can defend, but not these two! A key stat here is in 2013 the year before Paul Roos took over Melbourne, their points against was a whopping 122 points average per game. Under Roos they were able to get that well down with a defense first approach to only find Melbourne under Goodwin in 2019 rank 1 for points against at a massive 116 points per game. This team is going backwards at a rate of knots.
Essendon certainly made a big step forward, they looked more like a team than the opening two weeks where it seemed they were a bunch of individuals, a big tick for Worsfold, and they can look to build on that from here.
Melbourne on the other hand still look underdone physically too many times Essendon Players stepped thru contests unchallenged and they are certainly lacking leg speed on the outside something Essendon displayed in spades. Melbourne face Sydney in another big game Friday night, whilst the season is not completely gone the final nail in the coffin awaits.
0-3 for Carlton as Swans…Just…take the points
For the sixth time is seven years the Carlton Footy Club has started the season 0-3. They had many opportunities to do something about it yesterday but inaccuracy in front of goal and silly decisions were costly.
It was however a AFL tips betting win for us as we took Sydney at the win and the
-13.5 line handicap in a AFL betting win for us.
Carlton had 15 to 4 inside 50s in the final term which is quite a remarkable stat but still failed to convert into success. Sydney are not the Sydney of old they entered the game 0-2 after loses to the Bulldogs and then beaten by Adelaide at home, they were far from inspiring against the Blues but they left their season with a pulse after the win.
Giants Grow as the Tigers look Toothless
Well there it is the Tigers will be without their big 4 for a week at least. Rance a knee in Round 1 Riewoldt a wrist and Knee in Round 2 and stupidity and hamstring by Martin and for Cotchin in round 3.
Dusty is a frustrated footballer and his coach is pleading “let the good players play” referring to the great job Matt De Beor did in quieting the star midfielder. Dusty is not coping with the close attention something that was exposed by Greenwood in the AFL Prelim 2018 and something that he has had to deal with every week this season, he lashed out with an off the ball elbow something that will see him miss one week minimum.
The year the Tigers won the flag (2017) they were the team to use the “fewest” players, their medical rooms were empty and competition for spots was on, now is a different time for the Tigers and they need to find a way.
The Giants on the other hand have a real hard edge about them, and despite being outplayed by the defending premier in the west the Giants are making a statement that games in the Giants lair will be tough and uncompromising and with big Mummy back and throwing his weight around they are a fearsome footy side.
Jeremy Cameron is really hitting his straps in the forward 50 and had a cracking game with 30 possessions and 7 goals 5 points in a masterful display. The Giants are looking like being a serious challenger and so they should with a seriously strong list and a AFL finals spot looms.
Port fall Short but the F word is in the air for the Roaring Lions
Since the introduction of the top 8, 65 sides have started the season 3-0 and only 12 of those have gone on to miss the 8, I guess the question is what bracket do the Lions fit into.
In AFL tips betting, these odds work out to $1.18 Brisbane to make the AFL Final 8 and they are $1.65 as we speak making this a nice AFL betting proposition for those investing into the AFL Futures market.
Brisbane is now on an AFL tips betting three game peak performance run. There is no question they will have a flat spot at some time this year but they are a young connected group who believe in each other and have bonded over the down times and they look to be on a mission together to give their best an its going to take them a long way in season 2019. Brisbane front up to the Bombers off the big Melbourne win.
Power should have had the game well in their control at half time however with senior players Gray, Westhoff (2) and Ebert all missed simple shots on goal. Most key stats will show Port should have won.
After taking a 10 point buffer in the final term, Port then looked tired, they stopped their attack went defensive and the Lions went in for the kill storming home with the final 4 goals to have the Gabba rocking only as it did in the “Gabbatoir” games of the fabulous three peat Lions of the 2000’s.
You can read our pre season assessment of Brisbane Lions below.
https://itipsports.com.au/afl-2019-preview-brisbane-lions/
The Eagles have the Wood on Colling-Wood
The Eagles were sitting 10-1 in the AFL tips betting premiership market and were still only the 4thfavourite for the AFL flag as they continued to sail under the radar. The story continues in 2019, underprepared they were ambushed by Brisbane in Brisbane (who look ok) then they comprehensively beat the GWS and they started a big outsider in AFL betting at the MCG in the AFL Grand Final rematch on Saturday.
They have now proceeded to beat up on Collingwood the last four games and are a $5.50 equal favourite in the AFL betting 2019 AFL Premiership market.
Everything Collingwood tried West Coast had an answer for and the return of Andrew Gaff after his 8 match ban was a very smooth return. Collingwood lost some admirers from the game and need to bounce off this loss quickly and lick their wounds until next time they meet up.
1 point off a 3-0 start for the Gold Coast Suns
It is only seconds in the opening round match versus the Saints where the Gold Coast Suns erred at a critical time that proved costly to them in that game otherwise the Suns would be sitting unbeaten on 3-0 who would’ve thought this!
All credit goes to Stuart Dew and his sidekick Josh Francou, this group is looking to build a strong culture something that has been missing almost since they “bought” Gary Ablett when the franchise began. Leadership has always been an issue at this club but from what we saw with Josh Francou at Adelaide and him speaking his mind when he believed things were not above board on camp shows strong morals and this will serve the Suns well.
The Bulldogs came out of the blocks half asleep, and the game really was gone at quarter time, they showed a lot of guts to rally and really be a chance to win in the final seconds.
However they do have a problem it’s the second week in a row they have dominated inside 50’s (19-4 Q2) to only add 2.4, the forward connection needs to be ironed out.
This is really a game the Bulldogs should be winning and they didn’t.
“Bristly Brad” under Pressure at the Hawks hang on
Do yourself a favour and head to the AFL website and watch Brad Scott’s press conference you will see a man who is feeling the pressure. Brad Scott was being praised last year for the job he did with a side that many had predicted pre season would finish last, they were pretty solid all year, however the wheels have totally fallen of in 2019 and it seems Brad is not sure how to stop the bleeding.
Chad Wingard was back playing at AFL level and whilst it wasn’t his most prolific match he took a big mark to kick a big goal and that started to turn the tables. Nth Melbourne began well with a 4 goal opening term but then kicked only 6 for the rest of the game (2 of those in junk time late) it was all to little to late.
Clarkson’s men are stop start at the moment but he will get them rollig soon, North Melbourne on the other hand are un der the pump and their coach carrying on like a spoilt brat in press conferences is not going to help.
Freo Fall in against Spirited St Kilda
The AFL Sunday twilight match was a good old fashioned scrap and we collected the win in AFL tips betting with our investment into Fremantle win but we failed on the line handicap bet as the Dockers could not hold their early 5 goal lead on our -18.5 line.
Fremantle returned home smarting after an “embarrassing” loss at the hands of the Gold Coast suns at home, but there is every chance that that trip this year may be harder than expected.
Fremantle needed to bounce back with a win prior to this weeks “Derby in the West” where they will come in as an AFL tips betting underdog given West Coast come in on a two game peak performance line handicap cover run.
Fremantle would be keen to get their confidence back up and rolling but they have been embarrassed in recent Derby’s and this one with the return of Gaff versus Brayshaw and with Fyfe out injured from his head clash and the Eagles versus Dockers game has some real X factor attached to it.
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AFL tips and betting 2019
Every round, every game
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