Chiefs and Eagles
So we end up at the holy grail of American sport the Super Bowl 2025 to be held in New Orleans. The Kansas City Chiefs looking for a record 3 peat Super Bowl up against the Philadelphia Eagles. This looks on paper a classic match up. Further, we have the Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looking to challenge Tom Brady as the NFL GOAT. More spice to the game is the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce looking to be the tight end GOAT. He of course is the boyfriend of Taylor Swift.
Human Behaviour Model
On our HBM Human Behaviour Model which is our method on establishing sports betting opportunities we use the peak/trough performance methodology. For the Super Bowl 2025 on our data we have a 5 game PEAK Eagles up against a 2 game PEAK Chiefs. That is the Eagles have beaten market expectations the last 5 games in an extended peak run. The Chiefs have only beaten market expectations the last 2 games.
The above gives us a peak differential of 3 games in favour of the Chiefs. Of course the caveat here is the one trough game of recent times for the Chiefs to break this peak run was the last game of the season. The Chiefs lost 0-38 to the Broncos BUT played about half their starting line up to rest players for the play offs. So this somewhat confuses the position.
The other factor is despite winning in the first half of the year. The Chiefs had a series of trough wins, that is they WON BUT did not beat market expectations. However that has well and truly corrected itself in recent times.
Kansas City three peat
We land here on the Chiefs, on our modelling. The peak differential cannot be excluded despite all of the above. The total game score market is 48.5 and we have the total score of 46 so little margin protection from a betting perspective. CHIEFS WIN $1.90
