AFL ROUND 14 MID SEASON REVIEW PART 3
As we head into AFL Betting Tips round 14, we feature the last 6 sides with a bye. We have already reviewed 12 sides and you can read about these sides at the below links. Next week we will provide some advise on the Expert AFL Betting Tips Futures markets and possible investments.
Read our AFL Betting Tips Week 1 Mid Season Review at https://itipsports.com.au/afl-betting-tips-mid-season-review-part-1/
Read Week 2 of AFL Mid Season Review https://itipsports.com.au/afl-betting-tips-mid-season-review-part-2/
AFL Betting Tips Report Card Week 3
ADELAIDE CROWS A-
NORTH MELBOURNE C-
GOLD COAST C
GWS GIANTS A+
GOLD COAST C
CARLTON D-
ADELAIDE CROWS
SEASON PREDICTION 6th (12-14 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 4th (8 WINS)
REPORT CARD A-
Adelaide Crows were the disaster team of 2018 on the back of losing the AFL Grand Final in 2017. Adelaide overcorrected badly and it had massive repercussions.
The pre season camp precipitated a massive fallout and loss of trust from playing group to coaching group and the question was whether the trust could be rebuilt.
It seems the bridges have been built and trust restored if Adelaide’s on field efforts are any indication. After a wobbly start (1-3) the Crows have put together a nice two months of AFL and find themselves at 8-5 into the break.
Adelaide’s ability to adjust and grind out wins has been a big reason for their turn around in form. The players regained confidence and belief and were competing as a team. They have now won their last three and have yet again adapted to a new game style by turning up the heat offensively averaging 91 points over that period. It is not the same shoot out down hill skiing style of 2017 but it is still highly effective.
Adelaide is perfectly placed to make an assault on the top 4 in the second half of the year. Their first two games back from the break (Geelong in Geelong and Port Adelaide) will be big insights into where they sit within the AFL.
SUMMARY: Adelaide after a slow start have really bounced back nicely to find themselves in top 4 contention. There has been nothing spectacular about what they are doing but they are getting the job done, If they keep their last 6 weeks of footy rolling post bye then they are a challenger to place in the AFL Grand Final 2019.
NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS
SEASON PREDICTION 14th (6-10 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 13th (5 WINS)
REPORT CARD C-
AFL Betting Tips 2018 was the season of promise for the Kangaroos as they shed the “old” and it was in with the youth.
They outperformed expectation bordering on the top 8 and things looked all rosy with natural improvement they should move into the AFL Finals. “Let the footy world underestimate us again as they always do” bellowed Brad Scott pre season. Little was he to know it was he who was overestimating what he could deliver to fans. The door opened for Brad and it was goodbye Scotty prior the mid season bye!
The Kangaroos were terrible to start the year and the writing was on the wall an 82 point defeat at the hands of the Dockers in the season opener. They lost 3 in a row before a win but it was the way they got dominated on their marquee day Good Friday that set the sharks circling.
They would go on to lose 3 of their next 4 after that and Scott was gone. Scott’s job was handed to his assistant Rhyce Shaw who is relatively inexperienced but has had a nice freedom about him in the roll. Despite being a “defence first” coach its been the freedom and attacking flair the Kangaroos have played with that has been most interesting. The players have responded in a manner that indicates they felt stifled under Scott. However the question will be how long Shaw can ride the “honeymoon period” post the bye.
SUMMARY:
The best thing to come of the season so far for the Roos is the removal of their coach Brad Scott. He had been there for a decade and achieved pretty much nothing. You could argue he produced two good finals series that saw his sides reach Prelim Finals but a gauge is the home and away record. In his 9 full seasons
Scott took them to the following positions:
9th (2010) 9th (2011) 8th (2012) 10th (2013) 6th (2014) 8th (2015) 8th (2016) 15th (2017) 9th (2018). Not inspiring to think he is the man to take you to the promised land. A new Coach and approach will allow the Kangaroos a chance to re climb the AFL ladder. Ex Kangas players Sydney Coach John Longmire and Hawthorns Alistair Clarkson (unlikely) will be at the top of the list.
GOLD COAST SUNS
SEASON PREDICTION 18th (0-3 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 17th (3 WINS)
REPORT CARD C
It looked another season of depression ahead for the Gold Coast Suns. Their two co captains (and best players) had walked out on them in the off season and coach Dew with a group of youngsters again would be wondering “where to now”.
With some off season trading of his own bringing in Assistant Josh Francou, Dew went about rebuilding some competitiveness into his young group. He has enjoyed some success in this area.
The Suns began the season like a bomb, winning 3 of their first 4 and their only loss was by 1 point. Those three wins however were always hard to gauge as they were all by under a kick. They then suffered two big losses to Adelaide and Brisbane but since then they have played at least three quarters of good footy each game. One quarter per game is killing them, typical of a young side. That said 8 losses in a row is not a great look as winning is everything in the AFL.
Dew has created some nice change. The challenge will be converting those competitive efforts into wins that the next transition for this side.
SUMMARY:
All in all its been an improved effort by the Suns this year, at least you can see the style of footy Dew wants and the players are bringing effort and energy the majority of the time. They are capable of pulling a couple of upset wins in the back half of the year and will be hard to beat at home.
GWS GIANTS
SEASON PREDICTION 7th (12-14 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 2nd (9 WINS)
VERDICT A+
The GWS Giants have had a very solid start to the year there with moments of lapses to keep them honest and on track.
They are the only side to beat Geelong this year and did this at Geelong’s home ground which is no mean feat. The impressive aspect with the GWS is the ability of other players to stand up in leadership roles in the absence of Co-captains Ward and at times Davis (both injured) and really drag their side over the line.
Coniglio and Cameron have been two masters at that this year. The kryptonite for the GWS does still seem to be the MCG. They have only won 3 of 15 there but their flogging by the Hawks at the home of footy is a concern. That said they were able to recalibrate and beat the Demons at their next go there but they conceded 6 of the last 7 goals.
However sitting 2nd on the AFL ladder and getting their game going is a good sign. They are in general a hard running higher scoring side. Adelaide were able to slow their run a couple of weeks ago and the better teams will use this as a blueprint to halt them going forward. With Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond and Collingwood in their month of footy post break this will go a long way to deciding their top 2 fate.
SUMMARY:
The Giants are well placed for an assault on the AFL Grand Final. They have power all over the ground and when up and going they are a fearsome sight. The MCG still holds issues but they are set up for a strong back half of the year.
RICHMOND TIGERS
SEASON PREDICTION 1st (17-19 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 8th (7 WINS)
REPORT CARD B
The Tigers must have run over a black cat as this season has all been about injuries. It started in the opening match losing their All Australian defender Alex Rance to a season ending knee. Then Captain Trent Cotchin, spearhead Jack Riewoldt, Dusty missed a game and you wondered how the Tigers could keep going with this list in the medical rooms!
They have been unbelievable whilst undermanned. From round 4 they went on a 6-1 winning run including massive away wins against Port Adelaide and Fremantle. However they have been brought back to earth their last three dropping them all including being destroyed by the Cats at the MCG.
Coach Hardwick will relish the break it will give his side a great chance to nurse through any injuries and if he can get the majority of his A team back. The most notable aspect of their winning run was the pressure of the small forwards. There is a query on how sustainable this level of pressure is but its effective.
SUMMARY:
The Tigers sit borderline AFL top 8 but they have managed well to win whilst heavily depleted. Despite losing their last three they are still in September contention. If they can get their players right they can build some real momentum in the back half of the year.
CARLTON BLUES
SEASON PREDICTION 17th (0-3 WINS)
CURRENT POSITION 18th (2 WINS)
REPORT CARD D-
There didn’t look to be much hope for Carlton leading into 2019 and it didn’t take long for their grim reality to become apparent.
They lost their first four matches for the year, won a game, then they proceeded to lose their next six matches. This would be the end for Brendon Bolton. Yet another coach not having success at Carlton and this was on the back of club legend Brett Ratten and two premiership coaches (Pagan and Malthouse).
This means the coach is not essentially the main problem and there is a systemic issue emanating from the top down at Carlton. It is very hard to put the finger on what the problem is exactly, but there is no doubt that Carlton’s old ways of “throwing money at the problem” to fix things is failing to reproduce their previous results.
Not the least of which was the penalties they received for these very practises.
The question is can Carlton be capable of building a functional successful footy club in the modern world of “equalisation” under the AFL rules. Carlton needs to figure out and understand the correct pillars that need to be in place and function in today’s footy world. Not easy but needs to be done.
SUMMARY:
Carlton has again failed in 2019. Another Coach bites the dust and the basket case continues. This is a club in crisis and they have some heavy lifting ahead.
You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
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