AFL Betting Tips – mid season review Part 1
AFL Betting Tips heads to the mid season review for rounds 12, 13 and 14. Six teams will have a bye each week over the next three weeks. This gives clubs a chance to reset whether they are sitting near the bottom or top of table. An opportunity opens up for players to rest injuries or niggles and a mental reset.
This is all consistent with our Human Behaviour Model of assessing and forecasting our Expert AFL Betting Tips. You can read about our Human Behaviour Model and how it applies the principles to our AFL Betting Tips You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
Report Card AFL Mid Season Review – Part 1
Port Adelaide B-
St Kilda B+
Port Adelaide Football Club
Season Prediction 8th 12-14 wins
Current Position 7th 6 wins
REPORT CARD: B-
Port Adelaide had a terrible finish to season 2018 and went about a real off season recruiting drive. It was indicative of sacrificing the now for the future and has had varying results so far.
The introduction of youth has had a positive effect on the group with top draft picks Connor Rozze, Xavier Duursma and Zac Butters all showing promise along with Willem Drew getting regular game time.
The movement of Travis Boak into the midfield has been brilliant with the former skipper being in Brownlow challenging form. In Ports defense injuries have not helped and that is a fair argument to mount.
The same concerns still apply for Port Adelaide in that:
* They are sloppy in converting going forward
* They have an unhealthy relationship with expectation
The forward line problem might be stated that Charlie Dixon is not there. However when he is there they have the same problem. They also simply are too in and out of games they are expected to win. Games like Melbourne (round 1) and West Coast (Easter) where they are outsiders they often bring their best. Then there are games where simply they should win but don’t (Richmond home, Hawthorn away). Maybe we expect too much of them but the same issues happen year in year out.
VERDICT- Port Adelaide are on track to finish in the 8, if they can generate some more efficiency going forward and perform consistently when they are expected to win they should play finals.
St Kilda Football Club
Season Prediction 15th 4-6 wins
Current Position 12th 5 wins
REPORT CARD: B+
It was a searching off season with a full review of the St Kilda football department and it had positive results early on in the season.
Brett Ratten, Brendon Lade and NRL great Billy Slater were bought in to lend some assistance and the Saints had a stunning start to the year. After squeaking home in Round 1 with a 1 point win over the Suns they won 3 of the next 4. Then they suffered some injuries and dropped their bundle and have struggled since,
They are battling to regain the team cohesion that appeared to be there in the opening month. It’s a very tight year and they are still in touch of the 8 but their next month of footy will be the tell the tale. With games against the Suns, Lions, Tigers and Kangaroos really sees them needing to win 2-3 of those for to keep their slim hopes alive. This looks a very difficult task.
VERDICT – After a stunning start the Saints have really fallen away having lost key personnel and their cohesion and intent is nowhere near where it needs to be. They look to fall a touch further before season end.
Western Bulldogs Football Club
Season prediction 16th 5-8 wins
Current Position 13th 4 wins
REPORT CARD: B-
Its been an up and down start to the 2019 for the Bulldogs. They have looked like world beaters at times and mediocre at best at others. There have been some moments where they have been “in the zone” and playing some of that 2016 Bulldogs footy.
Starting with two wins they looked to be on the improve but they then went to lose four in a row. The smashing of the Tigers in Round 7 would have excited their faithful but then went on to win only one of their next four games.
Seeing Luke Beveridge in tears talking about the retirement of Tom Boyd due to mental health struggles was a real insight to the strength and connection Beveridge has with this group. He needs to use this better in order to get them with a level of consistency. It is not their effort that is waning but execution of the plan.
They play Carlton next week, but then they face Collingwood, Port Adelaide (Adel) and Geelong so it looks a hard run to build any confidence!!
VERDICT – The Bulldogs need to capitalise on effort, there have not been too many matches this year where they have turned it up. That’s a promising sign but kicking winning scores is a consistent worry. They are about where they will be.
Essendon Football Club
Season Prediction 2nd 15-17 wins
Current Position 10th 5 wins
REPORT CARD: D
Essendon along with Melbourne have been the most disspointing side in 2019.
The Bombers went on a tear in the second half of 2018 winning 10 of their last 14 games just out of the AFL Final 8. With the off season recruiting and a better start to 2019 they looked genuine contenders. How very wrong that appears to be.
The players must have been reading the papers and believing the hype themselves thinking it would just happen. They copped a reality check of the biggest kind in round 1 with a 72 point smashing at the hands of the GWS Giants. Round 3 was a win against the winless Demons and it put them on a month of good footy. Three wins and a solid Anzac Day game against Collingwood looked like the tide had turned.
However the Bombers were unable to hold the form and the high octane up tempo rip, shit and bust game really fell apart. They have been on a 1-4 run since then and look to have some real problems.
Worsfold has come under pressure and this will only build if they cannot bounce in the second half of the year. We suspect Worsfold will be moved on regardless. With the Hawks, West Coast, GWS Giants and then Sydney Swans its not the sort of month that would have them jumping for joy.
VERDICT – It is been a big fall from grace for the side most thought would be contending. They still are yet to find the balance between attack and defence. Coach is under pressure never good and they are a slim hope to scrape into the AFL Final 8.
Fremantle Football Club
Season Prediction 9th 10-13 wins
Current Position 9th 6 wins
REPORT CARD: B+
Some heavy off season recruiting of key positional type players looked to give the Dockers a bit of a hope of improving. This coupled with the young players having a full season or two under the belt has improved Fremantle.
They began in the most stunning way smashing the Kangaroos at home but were back to Earth with a thud losing to Gold Coast Suns. They then went on a 3-1 run which included their best performance of the year against the GWS in Canberra.
The most pleasing thing for Dockers fans would be their ability to be able to score and defend. Ross Lyon formerly known for “boring footy” has released the shackles and they are scoring well in comparison to the rest of the AFL in a very low scoring year.
With Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Carlton in the next 3 weeks they can go into the local Derby in July full of confidence. Coach Lyon looks as relaxed as we have seen him and always a good sign. The fate rests in their hands and they are a good chance to play in September AFL Finals. They appear to be building.
VERDICT – It has been some nice improvement by the Dockers this year and there still looks some real upside. They will be hard to beat at home and if they can reproduce a couple of the away wins we have seen so far September action beckons.
Hawthorn Football Club
Season Prediction 12th 9-12 wins
Current Season 11th 5 wins
REPORT CARD RATING: C+
Hawthorn is sitting right about where we thought they would be, middle to slightly worse with an ageing list.
The surprise has been the commitment of Clarkson not to play Roughead who is an absolute legend of the club. That is why Clarkson has had success, he is what is best for the club first and everything else including himself is second.
They started the year with a stunning away from home win against Adelaide and made the Crows look second rate. little did we know at that stage it would be just about the peak effort the Hawks would supply to this point of the year. They have really lacked consistency with an up and down week to week game. The side that is the past was so predictable is now very much the other way.
Losing Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell pre season was a bitter pill to swallow, but it was the start of some average injury luck for the Hawks this year. After the Adelaide win they had a run of 3 of 4 games (lost) where they lost 1-2 personnel in game.
They bounced back with a come from behind win against the Blues but since then have gone win/loss/win/loss. This pattern needs to change if they are going to be in the race for September. Currently a game outside they need to be doing more.
VERDICT- Clarkson looks like he’s on a search to unveil the next bunch of players that will take him to an AFL Premiership. He is finding out who has it and who doesn’t so he can shape the run at the flag over the next few years. The win-loss-win-loss scenario is likely to continue to 2019.
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