AFL Betting Tips - mid season review part 2ROUND 13 MID SEASON REVIEW – SECOND EDITION

AFL Betting Tips heads to the mid season review for rounds 12, 13 and 14. Six teams will have a bye each week over the next three weeks. This gives clubs a chance to reset whether they are sitting near the bottom or top of table. An opportunity opens up for players to rest injuries or niggles and a mental reset.

You can read our AFL Betting Tips Part 1 at https://itipsports.com.au/afl-betting-tips-mid-season-review-part-1/

We feature 6 teams for the second week of the AFL Betting Tips mid season review. Our mid season report this week includes 3 teams in the top 4 who are all on track for AFL Finals top 4 and will likely play strong roles in the AFL Grand Final.

This is all consistent with our Human Behaviour Model of assessing and forecasting our Expert AFL Betting Tips. You can read about our Human Behaviour Model and how it applies the principles to our AFL Betting Tips You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/

Report Card AFL Mid Season Review

West Coast B+
Sydney C+
Brisbane A
Collingwood A
Geelong A+
Melbourne D-

WEST COAST EAGLES

SEASON PREDICTION – 4th with 14-16 Wins
CURRENT POSITION 4th – 8 WINS
REPORT CARD B+

The defending premiers have had a real stop start year. They have not got their game together however they have banked some much valued wins.

The Eagles attack is potent and it’s the single reason they sit 8-4 for the year. The conversion inside 50 is very good, and in recent weeks they have shown signs of really getting their game going (hiccup in the Swans loss). There is no doubt the Eagles who were last year the leading kick/mark team in the competition have had some real problems generating the ball movement they would like. They are now in a more contested game as opposed to last year a lot of their marks were uncontested. There will be some soul searching in the mid season break to see if they can start to get some genuine constant flow in their game.

Verdict-The Eagles are sitting in the top 4 and have been scrambling wins-if they can get their mojo gong consistently they should hold top 4 in the second part of the year, and with a bit of luck challenge for a top 2 spot.

SYDNEY SWANS

SEASON PREDICTION 13th with 8-11 wins
CURRENT POSITION 14th 4 WINS
REPORT CARD C+

We felt this could be the year of the slide for the Swans who have never missed a finals campaign under coach Longmire.

Granted Buddy has had some injury issues but the real issue early in the year was getting hard drive out of the midfield. They were way down on contested ball and looking a shadow of their former self. The rot set in for the Swans with a loss to Melbourne and went on a four game losing streak. Longmire swung the axe, he started with youth and went about rebuilding this battered side with enthusiasm.

They went on a run of form that saw them win back to back games and push Collingwood to 5 points. They also went with Geelong at GMHBA for all but 15 minutes and beat last years premiers West Coast comfortably. The query will be is this a “false” peak that youth enthusiasm brings or is this sustainable and a quick rebuild possible for the Swans.

Verdict – Sydney currently sit about where we thought they might. With the younger players in the side they are likely to have up and down performances in the second part of the year but if they bring more of the last month of footy than the previous month then they may slide up a couple of spots.

BRISBANE LIONS

SEASON PREDICTION 11th with 10-12 wins
CURRENT POSITION 6th
REPORT CARD A

In our AFL Betting Tips pre season preview into the 2019 AFL season Brisbane always looked like they could improve.

In 2018 they lost 5 games by under a kick. It has been a big turnaround from the boys up north with 7 wins already and winning all but one game at home. They are on the edge of the AFL top 4 however they will be disappointed with their away loss to Carlton after having a six goal lead.

Chris Fagan will continue his “personal improvement” mantra with his young group imploring them to be better. Lachie Neale has been a massive bonus for the club with a stunning season to date that has him $4.50 fav for the AFL Betting Tips Brownlow Medal. Brisbane also have a very impressive “spine” a real positive for them this season.

Verdict
Brisbane only need to replicate the opening half of the season. They will continue to be hard to beat at home but need to improve away from home. We are likely to see them playing finals in 2019.

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES

SEASON PREDICTION 5th with 12-14 wins
CURRENT POSITION 2nd
REPORT CARD A

It was always going to be fascinating to see the path Buckley took after getting so close in Last years Grand Final. It was a massive leap in performance year on 2017 to 2018.

Instead of taking the Adelaide philosophy a year earlier where the players were broken down and attempted to be rebuilt Buckley instead opted for minor tweaks. After all he was only 1.5 minutes away from an AFL flag.

It has paid dividends in big ways as Collingwood sit in a strong battle for an AFL top  two spot. On multiple occasions they have won games of footy with a 20 minute burst of play. That will be Buckley’s concern going forward and he would like to see a more complete game. A complete four quarter game is certainly what will be needed to win the big one this year.

The Queens Birthday win over Melbourne is exactly what the Pies needed to get their mojo rolling again. They can take that momentum into the break along with being one game clear in second spot.

Verdict – Collingwood have come back well, they have a real hunger to get back to that last Saturday in September and you feel if they can get there they can get the job done-they will need to iron out the patches of games where they have let sides kick goals against them but they are looking the goods

GEELONG CATS

SEASON PREDICTION 10th with 11-13 wins
CURRENT POSITION 1st
REPORT CARD A+

In our AFL Betting Tips pre season intro we felt the Cats were borderline top 8 on paper. They looked an identical outfit to 2018 and with the older brigade running through the middle it was hard to see where a spike could come from. Well, what a spike it has been in a remarkable start to the AFL 2019 season at 11-1.

We underestimated the master plan of Chris Scott. He hatched a plan for flexibility within this group and he wanted depth in all parts of the ground. Scott got buy in from senior players to help grow the youngsters. He threw the kids around the ball and had Dangerfield and Selwood play off a wing or forward. He has played Gazza Ablett predominantly forward with brilliant results. Tim Kelly in the midfield has become a star and the Cats will be throwing everything to keep this kid.

Geelong don’t rate overly high in stoppages and contested ball.  They do have three crucial areas where they are clearly the best team in the AFL which are kicking efficiency, inside 50 efficiency and goal accuracy.

Geelong has lost only the one game (GWS at home) and truth be told they still have improvement left. To see them destroy Richmond like they did last week was just another sign to the AFL competition that Geelong is a big time team. It would be very hard for them to replicate there near perfect season in the run home. That said right now they look a genuine powerhouse deserved of their AFL Betting Tips flag favourite status.

Verdict A+
All things being equal its hard to not see the Cats finishing top in the home and away season. Sometimes clubs are only “an injury away” from decreased performance but Scott has so much flexibility and depth this doesn’t look a problem. They look the obvious AFL Betting Tips flag favourite at the moment.

MELBOURNE DEMONS

SEASON PREDICTION 3rd 16-18 wins
CURRENT POSITION 16th
REPORT CARD D-

Melbourne has been clearly the worst performed side versus expectation for 2019.

They were bundled out of the AFL finals in embarrassing style in the 2018 Preliminary Final and it seems they left their souls there. They were off to a terrible start being flogged by Port Adelaide on their home deck, and it didn’t get much better dropping their next two to the Cats and winless Bombers.

The starting point to Melbourne’s problems is not necessarily all their fault. Off season injuries and players underprepared was clearly the case and this has hindered process. Also, a young side making the finals for the first time and getting into a Prelim smells of getting ahead of themselves. These two things are a potent force for a team sliding down the ladder. But we figured their talent would move them forward but alas!

Their main game style issue is connection going forward from their midfield where they are horribly inefficient. They simply cannot score and to add salt to the wound at other stages their defence had holes like swiss cheese. And if the midfield had a day off then it was disaster everywhere.

Goodwin has remained surprisingly publicly balanced. Sure they have had their fair share of injuries but the sheer gap between their best and worst is a real issue. The mid season break will enable for players to return, but season 2019 is done for the Dees. This is one of the biggest drops in recent years and surprisingly there has been relatively minor backlash. Maybe that’s what happens at mediocre clubs without a recent history of success.

Verdict
Don’t expect much from Melbourne for rest of the 2019 season. It will be interesting to see whether Goodwin can align his troops with purpose to play at their best for the rest of the year and get some momentum into 2020. The other option is they continue to fall right through the floor for the rest of the year. Whatever the result it’s a big fail in 2019.

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