AFL BETTING TIPS – ROUND 12 REVIEW
It was a small win for the AFL Betting Tips round 12 weekend. The winning results included the Carlton win as an underdog at win $2.60 and +15.5 in a nice result for subscribers over Brisbane. The other AFL Betting Tips win was Adelaide +5.5 and win $2.15 in a strong over top four side GWS. Our Expert AFL Betting Tips continues our winning season using our proprietary HBM Human Behaviour Model. The HBM analysis and forecasting of AFL Betting results is generating excellent returns for subscribers.
Here is our review of AFL Betting Tips Round 12 which is the first week of the three weeks of bye rounds.
CATS 11-1 WIN/LOSS AND SMASH TIGERS
Our AFL Betting Tips Friday night game shaped as a toughly fought contest on paper. The league leaders Geelong looked set to be challenged by a Tigers outfit looking to rebound off a poor effort against the Kangaroos. Richmond were looking to recapture the form that saw them win 6 of their previous seven games but it wasn’t to be.
This was the Cats flexing their muscles at the MCG and putting a possible contender to the sword in a new peak performance for the Cats this season. It was an emphatic statement by the Cats, generating over 100 points themselves whilst holding Richmond to their lowest ever score versus Geelong at the MCG (37 points.
11 unanswered goals for Geelong
It is hard to believe Richmond led this game at Q1 points but the Cats responded in the biggest possible way kicking 11 goals unanswered that’s the result right there. To be 11-1 at their bye week is an extraordinary effort. It is back to the drawing board for Hardwick and his troops as they were smashed in every facet of the game. On the back of two straight losses they head to Adelaide for a big Thursday night clash with the Crows.
CARLTON RISE FROM BOLTON’S ASHES
Sack the coach one week win the next! It is a recurring theme throughout the AFL Betting Tips footy history and it played perfectly into our Human Behaviour Model.
Carlton win $3.20 and +17.5 for subscribers
It netted us the outright win $3.20 and the line bet. We identified Brisbane were off a double peak performance and with the lift expected from Carlton after the tumultuous week it looked a nice play.
It wasn’t looking great early as Brisbane had 6 goals on the board before Carlton got their first. The Blues steadied, got some composure and set about clawing their way back into it. Fill in coach David Teague gave us an insight into the issues that had been occurring at Carlton. He said he would coach with “more Art than Science” and an indication that the “structures and rules” had taken their toll on the group, they were confused and played like it. Teague’s only guiding tip was for his players to be the best version of themselves. Patrick Cripps playing one of the greatest games you will see.
Brisbane struggling on the road
Brisbane who have had a great start to the year will be disappointed with how this one ended up. They got “too cute” when they had a nice lead and this will serve as yet another learning step in their journey toward the promised land. The Lions are a good young side who we rate highly but on the road is proving a challenge. We think this is typical of a young side who win at home but struggle away.
It will be interesting to see what Carlton bring to the table next week against the Bulldogs.
NORTH MELBOURNE WIN 3 STRAIGHT
The AFL Betting Tips Saturday twilight game was over at Q1 time. A rampaging 7 goal to 1 first quarter by the Kangaroos set up their third straight win.
It was uncharacteristic of the Suns who had started well in all 11 games this year, especially at home. But on the back of a smashing by the Giants last week they looked a shadow of their former selves and were shell shocked by North.
One very noticeable aspect of North Melbourne under their new coach is his emphasis on defence. Post game he declared himself “a defensive coach” but its on that defense that they have been able to push 100 points in each of their past games. North on a big peak run take on GWS this week who are on the bounce.
ADELAIDE CROWS IN BIG WIN OVER GWS GIANTS
It was a grinding effort along with late moments of brilliance that saw Adelaide take the points in the AFL Betting Tips Saturday night clash. We found the outright winner $2.15 and the +5.5 line bet result in our Human Behaviour Model. We had the Giants “coming back to the field” after a three game peak performance streak.
Both sides had important late withdrawals the Giants losing Toby Greene and Adelaide losing Tom Lynch. Adelaide got the game on their terms early, they stifled the trademark run and carry of the Giants. Adelaide really did well by not allowing transition ball for the Giants and their danger forwards Cameron and Finlayson never got an opportunity to influence the contest. After half time it was a seesawing affair and heavily contested game, Adelaide grabbed the upper hand in that stat (+20) and that contributed to them denying the Giants.
Leaders get the job done for Crows
It was to be special moments though including their leaders that would see Adelaide home. Trailing by 4 points their much maligned skipper Tex Walker crashed a pack and took a great mark, then iced the goal. Hugh Greenwood would be next (he was the late inclusion) and took a screamer and converted under pressure. Then Sloane stepped up to the plate sending Adelaide out of touch. There was cream on the cake with an Eddie Betts special to finish the game.
Adelaide moved to fifth with a massive clash with Richmond on Thursday night whilst GWS look for the bounce versus North.
EAGLES HOODOO CONTINUES AS SWANS DESTROY THEM
It was “one of the best wins I can remember” according to Swans coach John Longmire. Sydney who was three men down on the bench before half time yet they were able to dig deep and find a big win.
The Eagles who had been patchy to this part pf the year but were flattered by the 8-3 win/loss totally capitulated in defence. West Coast allowed 26 scoring shots from the Swans 46 inside 50 entries and this is a terrible stat for the West Coast.
The Swans attack was irresistible with Papley and Buddy 10 goals between them in a brilliant tall/small combo for Sydney. Simpson has some big reflection to undergo in the week off but sitting 8-4 in the top 4 will give him some confidence. Sydney has a bright horizon as they continue to improve on the back of a strong month of AFL.
COLLINGWOOD IN A QUEENS BIRTHDAY SLAUGHTER
Collingwood has responded in the best possible way destroying Melbourne in the Queens Birthday Monday clash at the MCG. Collingwood had been patchy in the last month of footy, scrambling home against the Blues, Saints and Swans before being rolled by the Dockers. Collingwood were really able to turn up the heat chalking up their highest “pressure” rating this year. Melbourne simply crumbled under the heat.
Melbourne were totally inefficient all over the ground (again) and are the most inefficient side in the AFL. Their most basic skill execution was sub AFL standard and you don’t win games like that. Its time for Goodwin to draw a line in the sand he’s been to accepting for to long of this rubbish and yet again in his post game presser there was not enough raw emotion.
These two sides go into very different positions heading into the break. It is season over for Melbourne and a top 4 AFL finals berth on the line for Collingwood.
AFL Betting Tips – Mid Season Review Part 2 out Tomorrow
Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney head for the bye for round 13 AFL Betting Tips. Tomorrow we will release our AFL Betting Tips Mid Season review Part 2 featuring the above teams. You can read our AFL Betting Tips Mid Season Review Part 1 here https://itipsports.com.au/afl-betting-tips-mid-season-review-part-1/
You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
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