AFL Tips 2019
The AFL tips season for 2019 is underway as we wrap up AFL betting for Round 2 with our HBM Human Behaviour Model analysis tool of bounce performance and peak performance as it works through the ebbs and flows of performance in team sports to give is the edge in our AFL tips betting investments for season AFL 2019.
We had 3 AFL tips in our AFL betting for AFL Round with West Coast getting home -14.5 and $1.41 win, North succumbed to Brisbane after being 24 points up midway through the third quarter and Melbourne were poor against Geelong.
Collingwood hit the “Mark”
It was a near AFL record that helped the Pies dispose of the Tigers and saw them charge into $4.75 favs for the flag. Collingwood employed a “keepings off” game style recording 174 Marks (AFL record 181) and totally pulling apart the Tiger game plan.
Buckley had the blue print from last years AFL Prelim Final and it was more of the same. Greenwood came in to run with Dusty and Collingwood ensured Richmond couldn’t “swarm in numbers” as they made them accountable to an opponent by honouring the short lead up player.
De Goey showed why he is paid the big bucks with 5 goals and a mark of the year contender-the midfield was humming and with a relatively healthy list despite a loss in a strong intensity game last week Collingwood really do look to have picked up where they left off 2018.
Richmond power forward Jack Riewoldt broke a bone in his wrist/forearm and will be out for 4-6 weeks. The Tigers will now look decidedly different with no Rance and Riewoldt-it is time for a little test of depth.
Blue collar Crows win ugly against a teetering Sydney.
Both sides were AFL round 1 losers and this was a really big game because at the end of it one of them was going to be 0-2 and the pressure would be turned up again.
Adelaide needed to really get some forward connection going after being stifled by the Hawks in round 1 and the smaller SCG seemed to help nearly forcing Walker and co to get up the ground a bit higher to create a contest.
The Swans look like they are going through somewhat of a rebuild phase and at some stage Longmire is going to have to bite the bullet and give midfield responsibility to the likes of Heeney and Mills. Sydney’s AFL season is teetering already there must be an eye on the future.
The jury is out on Adelaide but they got the job done in a contested fashion, however the Cats Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval will be more of an indicator to where they sit for the AFL betting season.
Warning signs at Bomberland as the Saints go marching in
There was no team under greater pressure in the off season than St Kilda and at the same time there was no team considered on the rise perhaps more than Essendon. This reflected in the AFL tips betting markets that had the Bombers hot favs to make the AFL betting finals and the Saints in the bottom 4. What a difference two weeks in footy makes.
The Saints are unbeaten and the Bombers haven’t won but it’s more than that. The Bombers look totally lost and lacking intent, which is hard to believe that could happen on the back of their Round 1 debacle. We are only 2 rounds in but there are serious warning signs at Essendon. There seems a real disconnect between the coaching and playing group and when you have two players run past the ball to get to the bench you know the players minds are not in the game.
Essendon have a lot of work to do and their battle on Friday night with Melbourne looms as a pivotal moment in their season. If they dish this up again then AFL 2019 doesn’t look good, they need to change their trajectory and quickly.
Carlton’s “greenshoots” show signs but Port take the points
Carlton was brave and when the wet weather came they were clearly the side to adjust best but Port had too much firepower in the end. This was a dangerous game for Port, they have been vulnerable in these type of “expectation” games before and have a history of losing games they are supposed to win. It was heading that way until they adapted to conditions and put together a strong final term winning by 16pts
Port Adelaide sit 2-0 and head to the Gabba next week to take on an inform and undefeated Brisbane.
Demons cant score OR defend whilst Cats sizzle to Top of the Pops
“Lacking continuity and connection” that is the problem according to Simon Goodwin coach of the Melbourne Demons and he may be right but its only one problem of many! The other two are defending and scoring!!
Melbourne are simply underprepared for the rigour of AFL footy in 2019 their players are underdone due to surgeries and they have two malfunctioning ends of the ground. Their forwards cant kick goals and their defence cant stop them. Can you think if two bigger problems to have?
Melbourne’s midfield are pulling their weight they had a whopping 72 inside 50’s to Geelong’s 48 and managed only 6 goals from those entries whilst conceding 20 goals against. Melbourne take on Essendon in AFL Friday night football who also sit at 0-2 and the burner will be turned up to overdrive on the side that loses that clash.
Geelong are certainly a side to watch to this point however are perhaps overplaying their ability and there is sure to be a correction. Their match with Adelaide off a five day break will be a big test that’s for sure.
Eagles unfurl the Premiership
The mascot with a back flip bungy jump off the top of Optus Stadium unfurled the Premiers flag and then the defending AFL 2018 Premiers West Coast went about dismantling one of the potential challengers the GWS Giants in the most clinical way.
Optus Stadium has the potential to be a real fortress again for the Eagles and it’s a Coliseum where the crowd envelope the players like no other ground. Their supporters are known to be the most vocal prompting Alan Richardson labelling their crowd as the most influential on the AFL umpires fraternity with their “noise of affirmation”. The travel factor and time difference are also key aspects to the grounds advantage.
The Giants did have Toby Greene and Josh Kelly missing and it was too much left to too few and it was a massive drop from their domination of Essendon in round 1 but they do head home this week.
The Grand Final rematch is next week against Collingwood and this is exactly the steadying win West Coast needed before that AFL clash.
The Lions rise continues as North Melbourne wilt
Brisbanes off season recruit Lachie Neal nearly singlehandedly lifted his team over the line in a stirring come from behind win for the Lions. On the back of their win against the reigning premiers the Brisbane Lions very quickly ticked another box early in the season, a win on the road.
North Melbourne led by 22 points midway through the third term but the Lions pounced and created a seven goal turnaround to run out winners by 20 points.
We expected a performance “bounce” from the Kangaroos and they showed an improved effort on the back of their limp performance in the West but boy the jury is still well and truly out on them as they just could not sustain the effort in a game they really should have won.
It’s a big game for Brisbane next week they face off with Port Adelaide with one of them coming away from that game with a 3-0 start to 2019.
Back and Barking at the Kennel are the Dogs
The Bulldogs overcame a 7 goal Hawthorn third quarter with a 9 goal last quarter of their own to run out winners at the MCG and sit 2-0 inside the top 4 after two rounds of 2019.
The Bulldogs have really got some penetration from their midfield going early this season but they nearly blew it in this match. They had a patch of the game where they had 23 inside 50s to 4 without scoring at all, they were lucky to dodge a bullet there.
Hawthorn probably feel a little bit hard done by as they lost Liam Shiels and Shaun Burgoyne in the second half with hamstring injuries leaving them short on rotations
This was a good battle at the home of footy and there is no doubt the Bulldogs have themselves up and running and hosting the Suns next week 3-0 is not out of the question however its fair to say we need another 5-6 games in the bank before we get a true measure.
The Suns rise in the East as Freo lose and head home to the West
The Dockers go home with their tail between their legs after being stunningly put to the sword by a plucky Gold Coast Suns outfit who continued the AFL tips upsets that seem to be the early part of season AFL 2019.
Gold Coast were tough around the footy early and it was poor goalkicking that allowed the Dockers to stay in touch as Fremantle made the most of their opportunities. This game was a real effort based match there was nothing free flowing about this match and it looked an energy sapping affair-its possible these two sides may be a bit jaded by their efforts here-it was a touch contest.
The next month of footy we expect will show the “true colours” of these sides, the Dockers to improve and the Suns to pinch the odd game here and there.
AFL tips betting Round 3
We head to AFL tips round 3 with a short week and Thursday night kick us off but before that our AFL betting modelling has stumbled over some really useful information on 0-2 and 2-0 starts for teams in Wednesdays blog piece.
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