AFL tips betting Final 8 odds:
2-0 OR 0-2 either way lies a strong indication of the AFL 2019 tips betting season ahead
Just 2 rounds into the AFL tips 2019 season and yet there are some teams that have an insight into what the AFL tips betting season 2019 possibly holds for them if history is anything to go by and it might give us an insight into some value AFL betting plays as well.
As it stands there are five teams who are 2-0 and five teams that are 0-2. Lets take a look at these two separate groups and what these starts could mean to their chances of September AFL Finals action in AFL 2019
Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda are the 5 sides to have a 2 win 0 loss record to this point of the AFL tips 2019 season. History suggests they have a very strong chance of making the AFL Finals 2019.
Since 1994, the introduction of the top 8 system there have been 107 sides start the year 2-0 with only 24 of those sides not going on to play finals (nearly 4 in 5 make it to September AFL FInals) or if you like 80% of sides.
In the last two years there have been 11 sides start the year 2-0 and only 3 of those sides have not gone on to play AFL Finals (Melbourne missed by a goal in 2017 along with the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide the only sides of the three last year to start 2-0 and miss finals)
AFL tips betting Final 8 odds:
So lets have a look at what that means from a AFL tips betting perspective here are the current odds for sides to make the AFL Final 8:
$1.06 Geelong
$1.10 Collingwood
$1.20 West Coast
$1.33 Richmond
$1.36 Adelaide
$1.53 GWS
$1.70 Brisbane, Port, Hawthorn
$2.25 Bulldogs, Melbourne
$3.00 Sydney
$7.00 St Kilda
$10.00+ all other sides
From purely a statistical standpoint the “true odds” of a side to start 2-0 and make the AFL Final 8 are: (ie: 83 of 107 have made it making the “general odds $1.29)
So you could justify AFL betting investments on
Brisbane ($1.70)
Port Adelaide ($1.75)
Western Bulldogs ($2.25)
St Kilda($7)
These teams are AFL betting extreme value against the historical $1.29 chances.
Lets flip it now and see what it means in relation to the sides that have gone 0-2 to make the AFL Finals. The teams this year who sit 0-2 are Sydney, Carlton, Essendon Melbourne and North Melbourne.
Since the introduction of the top 8 there has been 112 teams start the season 0-2 and only 19 of these teams have gone on to make the finals. The most recent was Collingwood last year, who went within a kick last year of winning the AFL Grand Final but generally speaking a 0-2 start has spelt disaster for 93 of 112 sides.
AFL tips betting To Miss Final 8 odds:
$1.01 Carlton
$1.07 North Melbourne, St Kilda
$1.16 Essendon
$1.25 Fremantle
$1.33 Sydney
$1.60 Bulldogs, Melbourne
$1.90 Hawthorn
$2.00+ all other teams
If we are to look from a purely statistical perspective the mathematical odds based on pure historical numbers is saying that sides are $1.20 to Miss the AFL Final 8
(ie 93 of 112) that would indicate that:
Melbourne $1.60 are the only side to represent value.
So whilst we may only be two games in its possible over half of the 8 is already settled if history repeats.
In conclusion we would entertain the following AFL tips bets on the Futures markets but we highly recommend you have a betting bank for your AFL betting investment into the Futures market and the investment amount is a level of money you are comfortable investing knowing that you can lose your investment.
Make the AFL Final Top 8:
Brisbane ($1.70), Port Adelaide ($1.75), Bulldogs ($2.25), St Kilda($7)
Miss the AFL Final Top 8: Melbourne $1.60
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