A Weekend of Upsets was AFL tips and betting Round 1
Well what a week of upsets it was in AFL tips betting Round 1, not totally unexpected as Round 1 is always a big unknown. It is one of the main reason we don’t apply our AFL tips Human Behaviour Model in the opening round. General analysis after AFL betting Round 1 is some teams under the microscope like no other, the sides that had good wins are praised and feted at times as contenders for the AFL flag whilst the losers have the heat turned up on them with every man and his dog wanting to unearth why they lost after six months of preparation.
What all of this analysis can lead to is an “overweighting” and “underweighting” in the public consciousness of the 1st round performances. In essence people believe what they saw, when really you should be looking for what you didn’t see and attempt to decipher if it can turn up in AFL tips betting Round 2.
And this, along with analysing the AFL betting line handicap markets, is what our Human Behaviour Model adopts in its analysis of AFL tipsin creating investment opportunities in AFL betting.
JOIN NOW – EARLY BIRD OFFER FINAL DAYS
AFL tips and betting 2019
You can JOIN NOW AFL Season 2019 only $149
Every round, every game
JOIN NOW at http://itipsports.com.au/join/
Prelim Final 2018 rematch
It is another big round of footy and kicks off with the AFL Prelim final rematch 2018 of Richmond against the Pies. Both of these sides were creditable performances in the opening round, however one won one lost. Richmond were a long way off their best but were still able to manufacture a win against Carlton. It was an uninspiring match and the AFL really need to flick Carlton from the opening game of the year. To us a Grand Final rematch would be a great way to open the season.
On our analysis on the Geelong Collingwood had it the highest rating game from an “intensity” perspective so whilst Collingwood were not successful we believe their performance was as good if not better than Richmond’s. There is also the chance that “the market” could over react to the Alex Rance injury maybe adjusting the line margin to far but more to come on that if you have our AFL tips bettingservice.
Blowtorch on Adelaide Crows and Sydney
The Friday night game is a crucial match for both clubs Sydney and Adelaide were both terribly disappointing in round 1 and believe me the heat will be turned up big time on the team that goes 0-2. Adelaide has been hammered from pillar to post in the local media and they would have spent a lot of time soul searching through the week. They will be looking for a big response like they produced last year in Sydney when the club first became embroiled in the infamous pre-season camp. We would expect them to be breathing fire in this game.
In our season previews we suspected the Swans could be the big faller of 2019, nothing we saw on the weekend changed that perspective. Sydney will be very nervy heading into this game on the back of their horrendous home form last year, this is a big game for both teams.
Essendon need a bounce performance
Essendon were one of the big disappointments in round 1 after winning 10 of their last 14 in 2018 everything was looking good another full pre season and a gun midfield recruit in Dylan Shiel and the AFL finals awaits!
No they were taught a footy lesson by a hungry GWS and it looked like boys v men. The Bombers played bruise free footy, no one wanted to get their hands dirty and they were easily the most maligned side of AFL round 1. There should be a much improved effort this weekend their coach John Worsfold was one of the toughest to play the game he wont stand for that.
The Saints will be happy they got the points but boy they were ordinary in a low standard game against the Suns. There is nothing to particularly excite us about the Saints who have yet again been bluffed by paying $800k a year for 5 years for Dan Hannebery who has to have his body “rebuilt” and having been put in the leadership group is now out of it.
“My Best win at the Club…Ken Hinkley
The AFL betting Saturday twilight game is Port Adelaide against the Blues. Carlton were workmanlike at best against Richmond who played pretty ordinary footy. The Blues still look a long way off the mark to us, Port Adelaide are one of the more interesting sides out of round 1, they caused a big upset against Melbourne at the MCG prompting Ken Hinkley to say “that’s the best win he’s ever been involved in at this club”.
Obviously Ken wanting to send a message to his young side as to how proud he was of them and how much he trusts them going forward but it does have the potential to allow the players to be a bit happy with themselves.
Melbourne also needs a Bounce Performance
Geelong were terrific in the highest class game of the weekend against Collingwood in AFL round 1 and this will be a really big game for them at home. They take on Melbourne who were very soft in the opening round and looked underdone clearly being outrun on the warm day and out toughed at the contests as well.
Pride will be a big motivating factor for the Demons this weekend, they would have been walking around Melbourne with their tail between their legs all week listening to everyone talk about them getting ahead of themselves or playing soft footy, they will desperately want to right the ship and we expect a real bounce in performance in line with our Human Behaviour Model.
West Coast and the old 3 Card Trick
The reigning premiers fell for the old 3 card trick-away trip in round 1 against a team you are expected to beat and they got ambushed by the Brisbane Lions. The AFL premiership “hangover” is a real thing once you have reached the top of the mountain and see the view sometimes you can stay there too long and forget you have to do all the work again to get back there. West Coast enjoyed the premiership and so they should but if they spend to many more weeks living in last year then this year could escape very quickly.
We can forgive an opening round loss like that if its used as a reality check, we feel that this will be the wake up the Eagles need to get their heads into the game again. They will need too because they take on the GWS Giants who were impressive.
Brisbane is an improver but consistency?
We thought Brisbane might be a big improver in 2019 and their AFL Round 1 effort was full of merit and gives them a good platform to launch into the year however with a young side off a strong effort like that sometimes it can bring about a bit of complacency the following game as they have been reviewing how good they were thru the week and subconciously the foot can come off the pedal a bit.
When you couple this with their opponent this weekend North Melbourne coming of a sub par performance the Kangaroos may be the play here.
The AFL Sunday game against the Hawks and the Western Bulldogs shapes to be a good contest, both of these sides performed against expectation in their opening round clashes and seeing them go head to head will give us a better idea of where things stand.
The Final game of the round is the Gold Coast Suns taking on Fremantle. There is no doubt the Suns showed some good signs against the Saints and they seemed to move the ball quite well at times, but it was against a very ordinary Saints outfit. Fremantle are a side we think are going places this year and they certainly showed in Round 1 that they have all the elements to do it.
