AFL Rule Changes
We were particularly excited for our AFL tips betting season 2019 on the back of the announced rule changes by the AFL. Our view was from an AFL betting perspective, changes to the rules make it more uncertain how bookmakers would frame markets for our AFL tips.
And this is exactly what we are seeing and our HBM Human Behaviour Model of analysis that we apply to profile team performance in sports betting benefits from uncertainty in AFL tips betting. We are benefitting from this as exampled in our AFL tips Round 4 results where we went at 64% win rate and 52% return on investment.
AFL Coaches always ahead of the AFL curve
The AFL coaches will always apply a different methodology to what the AFL want the game to look like. That’s because the AFL coaches have one vested interest…win! The AFL governing body has its own vested interest…commercial! In their eyes changes to make the game more open, less contested, more goals etc makes the game more attractive to watch and by association more commercially viable.
Make no bones about it, the AFL coaches can control what the game looks like by instruction to players of how they move the ball. And they do this with one self interest, which incidentally when you cut to the chase is what supporters want. That is to win!
So the clash between the AFL governing body and the AFL creates excellent AFL tips betting opportunities for us.
So what are the AFL trying to achieve?
Without doubt the overarching principle behind the rule changes was to open the game up, preventing ground congestion and to increase the ability of clubs to score. Its fair to say the rules have been a bit hit and miss in achieving their objectives. So lets break it down.
AFL rule 6x6x6
This rule was designed to open up space on the ground and allow space for the midfielders to get quick clearances to one on one inside 50. The idea being this would be converted into goals and thus higher scores.
As far as this particular rule is concerned the 6x6x6 rule has been a success, centre clearance goals have escalated from 2018 to 2019. So without question the rule in of itself is a success, however the overarching theme of higher scores has not materialised in fact scoring is lower (nearly three goals a game see end result below for numbers).
AFL game is lower scoring, the exact opposite to what the AFL wanted
So it begs the question why is scoring lower when one of the passages to goal is considerably up (centre clearance goals). The answer lies in the way teams move the ball to score goals that is the transition of the football.
What has happened now with the 6x6x6 rule is that it doesn’t allow teams to position the “7th” or spare defender who never used to play on anyone. He was more the “distributor” of the football from half back creating turnover goals, he was the “release” player.
Now that teams need to be accountable in a one on one down back there has not been the ability of the teams to move the ball cleanly through the spare “release” player in defence into scoring positions.
When you combine this with teams holding better “shape” or ground coverage up the ground it has become incredibly hard to score from turnover or backline transition comparitive to previous years. So far there have only been 14 sides of 72 in the opening four rounds who have scored 100 or above compared with 26 sides at the same time last year. That’s a 50% drop which is massive!!!!
AFL Kick in rule
This has possibly been the most maligned rule of the new additions, giving the kick in defender an extra 5 metres space and allowing them to play on out of the goal square was seen to create end to end goals.
It hasn’t worked, there hasn’t been a lot of change in how the defender executes the kick in and opposition sides have merely pushed theirs zones back 5-10 metres meaning a lot more play is concentrated between the two 50m arcs. The slick transition from end to end has simply not happened in any meaningful way
AFL Runner Rule restricted access
This rule really defies logic and is simply so mind-blowingly stupid in application you really need ot question the AFL Admin.
If the Coaches are there to coach and the runner is the mechanism to allow them to coach “live” in game, then how does restricting this help anybody?
Think of it as a work place issue. You manage a business but are restricted in the managing” or “coaching” in the work place, how do employees improve or know what you are thinking? The answer is they don’t!
So how do players improve if the coach cannot apply live feedback and how does the coach control any effective outcomes without it?
This rule saw runners only allowed to enter the arena once a goal had been kicked meaning there were not runners in the ground during general play.
It was feared that this would be detrimental to the younger sides lacking leadership, yet the results in the first month would perhaps tell us the opposite is true with Gold Coast, St Kilda and Brisbane who all seemed vulnerable sitting 3-1 on the premiership ladder with 2 of the 3 wins in close games.
It makes you wonder whether coaches were interfering with the “natural state of a player” too much and the old adage of “just go out and play” perhaps is most effective in these close games.
Early days what we expected would be “blowouts” against the younger sides has not eventuated. Or perhaps these younger players have lapped up the extra instruction of the pre season and are making really good decisions.
There is no doubt though the coaches feel helpless, and it was great to hear Chris Scott say he felt “naked and impotent” in round one against the Pies due to not having perceived control over the game.
AFL Ruck Rule
This rule involved the ruckmen being able to grab the ball out of the ruck contest and not be deemed prior opportunity. Once again the idea of this was to clear a stoppage and not simply have the ball drop in close for a secondary stoppage. It seems a rule the rucks are adjusting to as we haven’t seen a lot of it but in the moments the ruckman has decided to grab the ball the contest has been cleared.
So what do the AFL rule changes all mean?
Clearly the most notable change is the 6x6x6 rule in relation to centre bounce clearance goals. This has been at its most effect in the close games and without the ability to “throw a spare” behind the ball sides still give themselves a good opportunity if they are a goal or two down with a few minutes to play.
As a viewing spectacle in the most part it does seem to have opened the game up substantially, there are still times during the game when the “maul” type scenario with players around the ball but they are a lot more infrequent.
However scoring has been the big loser by far away and this is at absolute odds to the desire by the AFL to achieve a higher octane higher scoring game.
It simply has not eventuated in fact the evidence points to the opposite being true in 2018 the average total score for all matches was q total score of 167 points (both sides combined ) and this sat at total score of 175.8 points at the end of round 4 in 2018 fast forward 12 months to Round 4 2019 and the average total score sits at just 160.2 nearly 3 goals a game less than the same time last year.
AFL tips betting what does it mean
In the first four rounds it has been clearly an under’s game in the 36 games to date only 11 have gone over, which is 32%.
This means of course that 25 have gone over or a total of 68% a massive advantage so far. However we feel a correction could be on its way, we expect bookies to drop the total points line due to the massive skew that way in the opening month of footy, at the same time teams have had a month to adjust and figure out their ball movement and we expect scores to begin heading north. This may create an AFL tips betting opportunity in the total game score market, points per side and goals per side AFL betting markets.
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