AFL tips betting 64% win rate.
It was an excellent weekend of AFL tips betting for AFL tips round 4 with excellent results incorporating our Human Behaviour Model analysis which profiles the ebbs and flows of team sport.
Our AFL tips Round 4 results provided outstanding AFL bets results of 64% winning strike rate and a 52% return on investment and a 6.2 unit return on an outlay of 12 units. If you had a staking plan of 1 unit = $100 from your betting bank, you would have outlayed $1,200 for a dollar return of $1,822 and a profit of $622.
Winning AFL tips results were as follows:
- Melbourne 1unit +6.5 – WIN and Melbourne .5 unit win $2.20 -WIN
- GWS 1.5 unit +15.5 – WIN and GWS .5 unit win $3.00 – WIN
- Essendon 2 unit win $1.81 – WIN
- Fremantle 1.5 unit +38.5 – WIN
- Carlton 2 units +8.5 – WIN
We were only 2 points off a Carlton at $2.40 who led until the dying seconds of the game and 14 points off the Fremantle win at $6.00
This is an outstanding AFL betting weekend and we were particularly pleased with our modelling and profiling of ‘bounce teams” Melbourne, Carlton who were 20 seconds from winning and Fremantle who we had bouncing against the two game peak run of West Coast.
Our AFL tips selections of GWS and Essendon were pleasing given that our Human Behaviour Model profiled these two teams as strong bets given the three game peak performance run of Geelong and Brisbane and the GWS $3.00 win was a beauty.
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Demons a gritty win over Swans
At half time in our AFL betting tips Thursday night match it seemed as though the final nail was about to be hammered into the Demons coffin for AFL season 2019 with a 0-4 start.
Enter Captain Nathan Jones, he singlehandedly stepped in with 2 brilliant goals in the 3rdquarter. The other leaders followed and away they went on to record a seven goal to three second half and keep the flicker of hope alive in AFL 2019.
Sydney on the other hand have some big problems, they are being beaten at the goal face and Buddy is trying to kick every goal from 70m out.
Melbourne now comes up for its AFL tips betting Round 5 game against the Saints next whilst the Swans on the other hand have to go back to the drawing board.
Collingwood home over Bulldogs
Collingwood looked like going 1-3 during AFL tips betting Friday night game coming from behind to get over the Bulldogs. It was the hardest draw for all AFL teams as ranked by champion data and the Magpies have been able to get to a 2-2 on the back of some really strong high intensity footy. That being said they still have a pretty challenging month of footy ahead with resurgent Brisbane (Gabba) and Essendon (Anzac Day) in the next two weeks.
The Bulldogs have got back to their “handball happy” 2016 game style with their one touch ball movement a real pleasure to watch, they have to keep to this level and if so the Bulldogs may just be a surprise of AFL 2019.
Geelong lost a rare home game as Giants continue to muscle up
Going into the 2019 AFL tips betting season the Cats had lost only three games at home in three years. All of them were at the hands of the Sydney Swans. So fair to say it is a very difficult venue for visiting sides to get the job done. The GWS Giants managed to do it chalking up their first ever win at GMHBA stadium with an outstanding come from behind win full of courage.
The win has come at a heavy cost with their co-skipper Callan Ward missing most of the game with an ACL and likely missing the rest of the AFL betting tips season 2019.
Geelong were all over the game early having eight of the first nine inside 50s but the GWS Giants were able to hang tough. They were still down by 22 points in the 3rdterm but were steely in their resolve and kept coming hard taking almost all of the last term to hit the front but able to hold off a late rally by the Cats to win.
Geelong and GWS Giants 3-1 and in good shape
Both of these sides sit 3-1 and have set themselves up for a real crack at the first half of the season and the more we see of the GWS Giants ability to stand up under trying circumstances the more we feel they may just be made of the right stuff to go all the way. However the injury to their co-captain is an issue but this side has shown over the years they do find a way to cover missing talent. For Geelong well on the back of a three game peak run, they are now back to earth and if any good you get a immediate bounce.
Brisbane intimidated by high octane “rip, shit and bust” Essendon
Saturday AFL betting tips footy went to the MCG with the under fire Essendon bringing some if its trademark “rip, shit and bust” style AFL football to the table to inflict the first loss of the year on the young Brisbane Lions.
This was an excellent AFL tips betting result for us with Essendon a 2 unit bet win.
This is atypical of the Essendon high octane uptempo “rip, shit and bust” style.
MCG The “Victorian” Home of AFL
Quite often we underestimate what the “home of football” means to players and the effect it can have on players who don’t get to play there often or who have never played there before.
Brisbane coach Chris Fagan reminded us after his sides loss . “Our players were intimidated” when he spoke about how his players handled the occasion. Brisbane will be disappointed with their effort but they still shape as a troublesome opponent at home and we can anticipate a hard performance bounce this week.
Bombers will need to tighten up some of their defensive actions but if teams give them time and space and allow them to transition at high speed they will destroy you, Tipungwutti was outstanding with 7 goals and Essendon are on the rise.
Wounded Richmond bounce hard against erratic Port Power
Saturday twilight AFL tips betting game looked a severe task for the Tigers with no Rance, Dusty Martin, Captain Cotchin and key forward Riewoldt. it turned out to be no problems! There were many people looking at the players missing from Richmond and wondering how they could win.
Well they failed to understand it was the players that were playing for Richmond that would decide the outcome not the ones missing. It was perhaps the best illustration this year of teams playing to a structure and that being almost as important as the players that are actually playing because the incoming players (there were 6 playing their first game for the year) knew exactly what they had to do.
Hardwick is the “new” Alistair Clarkson
It showed the level of understanding of game plan ingrained into them a sign of exceptional clarity from the coaching department. It was Hardwick at his brilliant best painting it as a scene of “great opportunity “ for his revamped side to galvanise without expectation and they ate up every crumb Hardwick was feeding them. Hardwick’s approach smells of learning from Alistair Clarkson.
All too familiar loss for Port Power
Port on the other hand, it was a familiar story that has recurred over many years and we spoke about it again in our AFL tips season preview of Port Adelaide. They have a mental issue in the way they prepare, they are an inconsistent side and to be honest their trademark has been win the ones they are not expected to and lose the ones everyone thinks they should win.
Port fail time after time to deliver on expectation, and it is their leaders who are most culpable. They have to dig deep on what it is they are doing poorly in preparing these guys for games they are expected to win. If Port are to be any sort of contender they need to fix this recurring problem.
Crows cannot score as Kangaroos chalk up first season win
In our AFL betting tips season preview we said the first four games would show if there had been trust rebuilt at Adelaide after the debacle of last year with the camp that went terribly wrong. This led to a relationship breakdown and loss of trust from playing group to the coaches and perhaps even the club.
Crows players confused
Well at 1-3 it is safe to say there are still many issues to be addressed and the attempt of “lightening” the mood in a pre season of “fun” has done nothing but undermine the very thing Pyke needs to achieve. You can’t build trust by not being authentic. The “fun” pre season was manufactured, and while there were perhaps some smiles around the place it left the players we feel questioning who is the real Don Pyke? Is it the balanced one of 2016 and 2017 or the one that crucified us at the Gold Coast camp in 2018 or the one who wants us to be comedians in 2019.
Crows ball movement is atrocious and scoring a joke
Adelaide are lost and confused and are a long way from any footy of substance. Check out these statistics:
- They had 36 inside 50’s and allowed 57 inside 50’s against to a side who hasn’t won a game.
- When Adelaide was at their brilliant best in 2017 they averaged 109 points a game to now sitting 1-3 and averaging 69 points.
- A massive 40 point/game differential, even allowing for the lower scoring this season it’s a dramatic departure from their best footy.
The Kangaroos were solid, they cost themselves by poor goalkicking but they really managed to address the centre square clearance issue that had plagued them with many goals against in the opening three rounds.
But the story out of this game is Adelaide, and if what we think is the problem (trust) then they are not turning this around at a sustainable level anytime soon!
Eagles win 8th Derby in a row but Dockers comeback impresses
In the AFL betting tips Saturday night game coach Adam Simpson was probably the only happy with one part from the whole game, the scoreboard.
Accuracy was the friend of the Eagles and the enemy of the Dockers with Fremantle kicking 1.9 to half time to West Coast 6.3 and that was the game right there. The effort of the Dockers could not be questioned and Ross Lyon was really able to allow us to see what he has been banging on about for the last 6 months. He sees this is the group to take them on the journey to the promised land.
The Dockers were a nice +38.5 line handicap win bet for us in AFL tips betting and a $6.00 win bet went begging with their poor kicking.
Carlton winless as Suns go 3-1
The first of only two Sunday games on our AFL tips betting tips and for the fourth week in a row the Suns play in a game decided by less than a kick. More importantly for the third time in a row they win it.
For Carlton they bullocked and worked hard to lead for a lot of the day but they faultered in the last 10 seconds to lose it.
This was not what you would call a high class AFL contest, in fact it was more like watching a VFL game such is the depth of talent and skills challenged in some respects in the modern game.
Carlton are the only team in the AFL not to win a game. They have been competitive in most of their games but they have forgotten how to win. Brendon Bolton cannot continue in this caper dishing up a coaching record of 20 wins from 75 games (26%).
Something has to give soon and winning needs to become part of their conversation, not “I have the squad we now want and its now time to build this group“. Carlton need their big money players to perform, Cripps is a lone hand. With the Dogs, Hawks, Roos and Pies the next month of AFL is not looking great for a Carlton win!
We did get a nice result in a +4.5 line handicap win on Carlton. But…watch this space for some moves behind the scenes if there is not change very very soon on the scoreboard.
St Kilda move to 3-1
The final game of the AFL tips betting tips round saw St Kilda take care of the Hawks in another tight clash at Marvel Stadium. The Saints are now three from three at their home deck. Without doubt the coach coming into the season under the biggest amount of pressure was St Kilda Coach Alan Richardson and on the back of a searching off season review the board in its wisdom felt he was still the main man for the job.
At this early stage of the season, that decision has been vindicated with his team looking like they are playing for him. Sitting 3-1 (with two of the three wins totalling six points) they are setting themselves up well for a tilt at tough month ahead with Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, and West Coast in their next four games.
Hawthorn admittedly are injury riddled again and although some were contact injuries the continued soft tissue problems they are having show how important Andrew Russel (fitness coach) was to them.
The Hawks have been the measuring stick of the competition for a long time and one wonders are they getting wobbly. They have a Easter Monday game next week against the Cats and the result of which may tell us a little more about the possible unfolding story of the Hawthorn era nearing an end.
