AFL Tips Round 3 – Preview
We are two rounds into the AFL tips 2019 season and there have been many upsets creating interesting AFL betting propositions and the varied results plays nicely on our HBM Human Behaviour Model that is based on the ebbs and flows of human performance in team sport and with the AFL ladder taking on a very different shape early in season 2019 it opens up a myriad of interesting AFL tips betting scenarios and at the same time makes it more difficult for bookmakers to frame accurate markets.
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AFL tips Round 3 kicks off Thursday night
To get AFL tips betting Round 3 underway the Adelaide Crows have another “stand alone” game under the Thursday night lights at Adelaide Oval on the back of a grind out win in Sydney last Friday night against the Swans. It may just be the type of blue collar work rate type game they needed to find some competitiveness and confidence after being comprehensively outplayed at home by the Hawks in AFL round 1.
Geelong slaughtered the Demons but there were some holes in the win most particularly being thrashed in the centre clearances 72-48 and Chris Scott will be concerned with this out of kilter number through the midfield and he will be acutely aware if Adelaide’s forwards get a look at this many opportunities they could have a real feast. It will be a high intensity game that will give us a lot more of a guide on where these two sides possibly sit for AFL 2019.
The “Blowtorch Battle”
We are claiming this AFL tips betting game as the “Blowtorch Battle” although we probably fall short on trademark! There will be no bigger blowtorch than the one applied to AFL Friday nights loser. Essendon play Melbourne both with a 0-2 start to the AFL season and both looking a shadow of the sides that took the park in 2018.
There look big problems at Essendon the playing group look confused, they are bereft of confidence, there is a real lack of on field leadership and they are playing like there is a real disconnect between the playing and coaching group.
Melbourne have been given a bit more leeway but it is marginal. This is a team that got smashed in the AFL Prelim Final 2018, were beaten by a $4 outsider at home (Port Adelaide) AFL Round 1 and then they were beaten by 80 points at Geelong. Their slow season has been attributed to late pre season start plus 12 post season operations, this for me is no excuse, it might be a reason they think is plausible.
If you read our post 0-2 or 2-0 that season that is, you will see it is likely good night for the loser of this game!
Carlton get a chance here but not for us!
The Carlton v Sydney match kicks off Saturdays AFL games and looks an interesting AFL tips betting game on face value as these two sides look to be at very different stages. Carlton look as though there is some daylight at the end of the tunnel and the “rebuild” has its foundation and now to build on it whilst Sydney on the other hand are entering their “rebuild phase” ever so slowly. Can Buddy get hold of them as it looks the perfect game for a “Buddy Bag”.
Tigers in Trouble
Richmond head up to Giants Stadium to take on the GWS and these two were involved in one of the games of the year last AFL season and this shapes to be a fascinating contest. The Giants were completely outplayed after quarter time last week against the defending premier and no shame in that given the AFL Premiership unfurling for West Coast. However they return to their home base where they inflicted the most impressive win of Round 1 smashing Essendon. From an energy perspective you do need to take some of the travel into consideration, the trip to and from the West is the hardest in the AFL and it wouldn’t surprise us this season that betting against those sides travelling home the week after playing in Perth. That being said Richmond are only spluttering along at the moment and have lost Rance and Riewoldt and were no match for Collingwood.
The 2-0 Lions and Power match up
Port Adelaide and Brisbane are looking for the perfect 3-0 start to the AFL season 2019 when the battle it out on Saturday. The young Lions are choc full of confidence and had a brilliant come from behind win and were strong to the wire against the Kangaroos whilst Port Adelaide were off a peak performance against the Demons in round 1 they did all that was needed in round 2 in a reasonable tussle with Carlton in Adelaide and they will be looking to elevate that performance to challenge Brisbane. Charting Brisbane’s efforts so far this season would be a sharp trajectory in an upward fashion, there is no doubt that that line would be looking to go through a “correction” in the very near future however this young side has double peaked against what appears an improved Port Adelaide.
2018 AFL Grand Final Replay
What a game the AFL Grand Final rematch promises to be on prime time Saturday night footy and AFL betting the Magpies go in warm favourites. Collingwood and West Coast really hit their straps last week with stunning performances over Richmond and GWS respectively. Collingwood were only 1.5 minutes away from the ultimate glory last year and no doubt that has been churning in their guts in the off season and although you can never exact “revenge” on the team that beat you in the AFL Grand Final, history says the track record of the runner up beating the premier at their first clash the next year is a rate of 60% in the last decade which places Collingwood at $1.67 and Eagles $2.50 so not much value here.
AFL tips for Sunday
Sunday AFL footy kicks off with two sides who have been playing “above themselves” early in 2019. Gold Coast were 2 points away from being 2-0 to start their season and their come from behind win at home to knock off Fremantle showed courage and was full of merit, The Western Bulldogs look to have some mojo back they were easy winners against the Swans in round one and then put together a nine goal final turn to run over the top of the Hawks, there will be a level of correction for both of these sides at some point but this promises to be an enthralling clash with the winner able to claim vast improvement from 2018.
Hawthorn and North Melbourne front up for the Sunday afternoon game and both sure to have sour tastes in their mouths after being in winnable positions and giving it up.
To round out the weeks AFL tips betting games Fremantle host the Saints in the West. Saint Kilda are unbeaten in two games and one would think they would be closing in on a below par performance soon, perhaps even this weekend. Fremantle will be a hard task on the back of their shock defeat at the hands of the Suns, perhaps the most disappointing thing for Ross Lyon was the lack of his senior players standing up to take control when the game was in the balance with the exception of Fyfe the others were conspicuous by their absence. There was no other side under more pressure than St Kilda when the season began and there is that chance that after getting the public off their back with a 2-0 start they may just subconsciously get a bit comfortable and walk into an ambush from the purple haze it may just have a 50 point touch up written all over it!
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AFL tips and betting 2019
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