The Best AFL 2017 Tip – Right Here With Itipsorts!
Round 10 a winning weekend
81% strike rate last 5 weeks
Round 10 –
4-1 line bets line bets at 80%
1-2 win bets ave win $4.10
Last 5 weeks –
21-5 line bets at 81% strike rate
6-7 win bets at ave win of $3.95
Season to date –
31-16 line bets at 65% win rate
8-12 win bets at ave win $3.70
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Our AFL 2017 Tip Service delivers 5 straight winning weeks…
AFL tips and bets 5 weeks of winning bets in a row
Another winning weekend with iTipsports AFL continuing our winning streak to five weeks in a row and a continuation of the 81% win rate in our line bets. Hawthorn +31.5 and $4.10 win, Richmond -1.5, Adelaide -31.5, Brisbane +46.5 were our winning bets and we missed Carlton. We were 1 point of a 100% round with Carlton losing by 17 points in a 16.5 point line.
The big bonus was the win of Hawthorn over Sydney. As a 3 unit Best Bet, that is a x3 increase of your base stake. The $4.10 win bet adds further return and it was a really nice result. Even better, and we understand some subscribers did this, increased their stake on the back of the Friday afternoon update we sent advising the line had got out to +36.5 and $5 win and then the real bonus the pre game price of +40.5 and $6 win.
The rationale to increase your stake is really an individual call. We responsibly advise that you bet to a strategy of utilising your bank and staking plan and if you have invested that then really you should sit tight. However there is no doubt that as the price increases the relative value does as well so in some cases a small stake increase in the higher price can be justified. But it is you intuitive call.
The same goes for the Carlton line, which got out to +20.5 on the Friday afternoon and we advised this to subscribers in an email. Had have you sat on the +16.5 bet you missed the result however if you got on Friday afternoon you receive the benefit of the +20.5 Carlton and it’s a winning result.
Having studied the line movements carefully, we still think Thursday is the optimum day to be putting your bets on and that over the course of games we have recommended as bets, its basically 50/50 on movements of the line in and against our favour.
We have split rounds over the next few weeks and will provide periodic overviews of where teams sit as we look at the Premier/GF/Top 4/Top 8 Futures market to derive some value bets.
AFL 2017 tip – This is the tightest season in living memory…
This must be the tightest AFL tipping and betting season in living memory. One short look at the table tells the tale. There is two games between top and seventh with Adelaide and GWS equal top at 8-2 and Bulldogs, Richmond, West Coast and Freo at 6-4, with Geelong splitting them on 7-2.
There is two games splitting fourth and fourteenth with the above mentioned four on 6-4, Port on 5-5 and six teams on 4-6, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, Collingwood, North and Hawthorn.
Sydney sit 15th on 3-7. Sydney in the last three weeks on the back of three in a row wins in the Premiership market has gone $41, $31, $17 and now back to $31. You think the bookies have a clue!!
We have split rounds over the next few weeks and will provide periodic overviews of where teams sit as we look at the Premier/GF/Top 4/Top 8 Futures market to derive some value bets.
81% strike rate in line bets the last five weeks – the best afl 2017 tip strike rate ever!
The ebbs and flows of this erratic season is working well in our favour with a 21-5 win strike rate in line bets in AFL tipping and betting over the last 5 weeks. Our Human Behaviour modelling and its contrarian positioning around results and bookmakers lines and odds has it working to its optimum. This erratic performance places coaches and players under more pressure and this supports or position that under pressure sides will struggle for consistency. That is exactly what is happening and we see the season playing out in the same manner.
AFL 2017 Tip – Round 10 winners
GWS were the big winner for Round 10 and this win, with a serious injury list, places them as a AFL Grand Final premiership favourite. This team is full of talent, well coached and the Eagles are tough to beat at home. This win was full of merit. Adelaide smashed Freo at home by 100 points and in doing so reinforces our view that Adelaide will smash plenty of teams at home but a question mark still remains against top end quality. We might find out more v Geelong this week. Geelong won a cracking game Thursday night v Port. Do yourself a favour and if you want to see why Port wont be top four, look at the last stoppage goal involving Dangerfield and Selwood. The last two players in the comp you would want to let go in the dying seconds of a one goal game and that’s what happened. Geelong can win the GF with Dangerfield and Selwood on their game but if held, it may be a different story.
Richmond ended a single digit three game losing streak with a nice, but tight win over Essendon. If Richmond had won two of the three tight losses they are sitting equal top but instead are equal fourth. We will look at the Tigers closely over the next week. The Bulldogs got their mojo back with a strong win over St Kilda. At some point we are looking for the Dogs to put a streak of wins together to confirm a back to back proposition and we are watching closely.
The Hawks won one that few thought they would and a good one for subscribers who ended up on a $6 win and a +40.5 line the Hawks. Hawthorn at 4-6 hang in their and if O’Meara can get fit, might be a fighting chance to make the eight. Other winners included Melbourne, Collingwood and North, all fighting for an eight spot.
And the Losers…
Put West Coast at the top of the list. After a soft loss last week in Melbourne, where they cannot win, they just had to win at home to lift credentials, but got rolled. They are the new enigma of the AFL 2017 tip season. St Kilda got bounced by the Dogs and kicked a measly 50 points for the game in the process, a bad loss. Sydney were a wipeout against Hawthorn. Talked up after three wins in a row after going 0-6, it was a thud back to earth but a good one for our subscribers who were on the Hawks.
Port were pretty good v Geelong in a high quality game. Maintaining that level of effort would see Port in the eight, but we are not holding our breath. Freo got smashed by 100 points v Crows in a wet, wintry night in Adelaide. They looked a dispirited lot and it could be a tough game to bounce back from but after a strong six week period we will give the Dockers the benefit of the doubt.
Other expected losers were Carlton, Gold Coast, Brisbane and Essendon.
So onto Round 11 for the closest AFL 2017 betting season in living memory and many opportunities in our winning season.
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