AFL Tipping 2017 – The Wash Up AFL Round 9
Our AFL Tipping delivers a 81% strike rate last 4 weeks!
Round 8 –
4-3 line bets line bets
1-1 win bets ave win $2.60
Last 4 weeks –
17-4 line bets at 81% strike rate
5-5 win bets at ave win of $3.80
Season to date –
27-15 line bets at 64% win rate
7-10 win bets at ave win $3.80
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AFL tipping 2017 – 4 weeks of winning bets in a row
Another winning weekend with iTipsports AFL tipping service, continuing our winning streak to four weeks in a row and a fantastic 81% win rate in our line bets. Fremantle -19.5, Adelaide -47.5, North +13.5 and $2.60 and Geelong +2.5 were or winning bets for the round. We missed on Hawthorn, St Kilda and West Coast.
So who is the real AFL premiership favourite
This is the most even AFL season in living memory and is consistent with our prior season start thoughts and plays right into our AFL betting and tipping strategy. It works favourably with our Human Behaviour modelling if assessing team performance and the peaks and troughs of same.
Last week we highlighted what we considered flaws in the AFL premiership and Grand Finalist markets. To give you some idea, Sydney was $34 last week to win and are now $17. Geelong was $16 and are now $11. Hawthorn is out to $101. Richmond, having lost its last three by a goal goes from $41 to $67. Saint Kilda from $21 to $31. GWS who should have lost its last three but hung on to win to boy under goal after trailing most of the day in both of them remain a $3.90 favourite. Go figure all that!
Now we are not saying GWS won’t win, they may. But, based on all the above they are no value at $3.90 and some of the above teams, who may not win give you a “bang for your buck” at these prices. We will continue to monitor the Futures Markets looking for value. We think the bookies frankly have little clue and are pricing accordingly. Bet small but see if we can find some value.
AFL tipping 2017 – Round 9 winners!
Geelong and Sydney were the big winners of Round 9 and this reflects in their premiership quotes. It’s hard to believe Sydney was bottom three weeks ago on 0-6 and now are high in top 8 and top 4 quotes. They should make the 8 from here however we did note they have to win 11 of last 14 to get their so there is no room for error! Geelong comes off losing three in a row and won a high quality game v Bulldogs at home. Dangerfield and Selwood were brilliant and that’s Geelong in a nutshell. Stop those two and you win. Harry Taylor 5 goal cameo was crucial.
Fremantle were 0-2 and now sit 6-3 in a brilliant return to form and now face Adelaide in Adelaide. Speaking of the Crows they did what they had to do in a 80 point win over Brisbane. They will smash bottom ranked teams with the forward line they have. Remember, the two weeks prior they went two periods near on one quarter in length in having 10 then 9 unanswered goals respectively v North and Melbourne. And this is the $4 second AFL flag favourite. Jury is still out with them. GWS fell in v Richmond at home and they really should have lost the last three games. Good sides win close games? We are not sure that this strictly applies here. Plenty of talent yes but jury still out on them as a $3.90 favourite.
Collingwood looked done like a dinner v Hawks. It was quite eerie watching this game unfold as the Hawks went 43 points up in the second term and a quick look at Eddie and the silence of the Pies crowd told us blood was about to be spilt. If you needed any reminder that the Hawthorn dynasty was over then this was it as a Collingwood handball led second half revival sunk them. Buckley keeps his job for a week and the Hawks looked old and tired. Watch this space on Clarkson as the clock is ticking on a range of fronts.
Nice wins to the Bombers and North to finish off the Round 9.
And the Losers (including Hawthorn)!
Richmond, Bulldogs and St Kilda all got rolled. The Saints were due after winning four of last five, Richmond has now last its last three by under a goal and the Dogs were in the game but ultimately outclassed by Geelong. Watching all three of these teams closely but we cant have the Dogs at 8-1 the flag based on current form.
West Coast was bitterly disappointing re Essendon in Melbourne and retain their poor form away from home. And they are $10 to win the flag! Don’t you have to win the GF at the MCG or have they shifted it to the West? West Coast is no value until they can finally win in Melbourne.
Don’t forget this Thursday night’s game Port v Geelong in Geelong where we see Port come back from the China Experiment. Geelong has a remarkable record v Port so good luck here Port! Tips for this week are out Wednesday given the Thursday night game.
You can join our iTipsports AFL Tipping 2017 service for only $9 per week at https://itipsports.com.au/#