AFL tips betting Anzac Day – Thursday
It’s a big AFL tips betting game on ANZAC Day as Collingwood take on the Bombers. Both sides are bringing strong winning form into the match with Collingwood winning their last two and the Bombers are looking to make it three wins in a row. It is a -10.5 line Collingwood in AFL betting and there is much conjecture in the AFL tips market as to which way this one will go in a traditional 50/50 blockbuster.
More so than ever this will be a battle of who can get the game on their terms. Both sides are very capable of moving the ball at speed but Collingwood have two gears in their game, they can defend strongly as well. Essendon have one gear only…”rip, shit and bust” flat out attack Bomber Ball!
This game style has served Essendon well in the last three weeks of AFL but in this corresponding game last year the Bombers were exposed badly for their lack of two way running. The Magpies had them on toast by quarter time. The question to be answered by this game is can the Bombers adapt and bring some lockdown into their game?
If not Collingwood are in good shape for this one as they are probably the best go fast/go slow side in the AFL and they are masters of playing the MCG. Essendon are a very peak/trough style of team and given they have been on the upward curve strongly for three weeks in a row the likelihood of that graph being corrected is strong here.
Port v North Melbourne
The Friday night AFL tips betting ANZAC round clash heads to Adelaide Oval on Friday night where Port Adelaide take on the North Melbourne Kangaroos.
This game is so much more about Port Adelaide than it is about the Kangaroos. Port Adelaide must make this a “line in the sand” moment for their rollercoaster form and more so to begin shedding their reputation of performing inversely to their tag of roughie or favourite. Port Adelaide must handle the pressure of expectation to win when you should win as opposed to losing games they should win comfortably but then beating hot favourites when an underdog as they did last week v West Coast.
The Kangaroos were pathetic in their Good Friday game, and they are really having a terrible year. When you consider Brad Scott next year will become the longest serving coach at the Kangaroos surpassing Denis Pagan you have to ask how!! All this said however as we have eluded to before you can’t believe all that you see because the real truth is the Kangaroos are not as bad as they look. At the same time Port are not as good as they look. Quite often these “departure from the mean” performances allow for some betting opportunities. There may be a bounce in order here for the Kangaroos.
Gold Coast v Brisbane – the Q Derby
The Saturday AFL betting tips matches kick off with the “Q” clash the Suns hosting the Lions. These two sides have had stunning starts to the year both sitting 3-2 but they have been exposed in recent times. Both will be looking to reassert themselves in the local Derby and a performance bounce.
Brisbane were of to a flyer winning the first three of the year but have been brought backed to earth with a massive thud. They were taught a footy lesson in big time footy by Essendon and Collingwood in successive weeks.
The Suns have been very hard to get a line on. They had played four matches all decided by less than a kick and they were on the right side of the ledger three in a row. But they too hit earth with a big thud being destroyed by the Crows to the tune of 73 points.
These local battles have turned out to be real 50/50 games, quite often with the roughie prevailing. On face value you would think it’s the perfect opportunity for Brisbane to bounce back. That being said, with the exception of last weekend the Suns have really made themselves hard to play against and they are back on their own home deck. Shapes to be an intriguing encounter.
St Kilda v Adelaide – are Saints the real deal?
The Saturday twilight AFL tip betting game has become somewhat of a mini blockbuster at Marvel Stadium. There are two simple questions to this game. Are St Kilda the real deal and are the Crows back?
St Kilda are unbeaten at the ground this year and if not for a late miss in Perth they could be unbeaten for the year. They are shaping as a serious footy side but at this stage the footy world is not ready to accept that the Saints are back. A win against the Crows in this match would be another step in the right direction.
Their opposition here Adelaide Crows are another that no one really knows where they sit. They were able to get their game going in the last 3 quarters against the Suns on the Crows home deck. But they return here to the scene of possibly their worst performance of the year when they were beaten by the Kangaroos only two weeks ago.
At some point the Saints will come in for a “correction” as they are on a big peak performance run and only time will tell if this is the week. It has been a while since the Crows have strung together a patch of good footy. Their ball movement was better last week and finally struck 100 points in a game. The Saints will have to carry the badge of favourites it is been awhile since they have had this (round 1 beating Suns by a point) expectation and this can tests teams out.
Sydney v GWS – “Battle of the Bridge”
“The Battle of the Bridge” is one of our two AFL tips betting Saturday night games with the Giants the red hot favs. GWS got a reality check in a big way going down as the short priced favourite against the Dockers last outing and they need to right the ship quickly.
Sydney on the other hand have not got their game going at any stage this season. Even in their only win of the year (Carlton) it was only a quarter of footy that allowed them success. The Swans look a long way off at the moment and the Giants present a big task. The Giants have the edge on the Swans particularly in the big games absolutely decimating the Swans in their two finals appearances including last year.
Fremantle v Bulldogs
The Dockers really get the opportunity to announce they have turned the corner when they host the Bulldogs in the AFL tips betting Saturday night clash. There is no doubt Fremantle have a more attacking edge to their game and it seems Ross Lyon has listened to his playing group when they expressed the desire to play more attacking AFL. They have now kicked 100 points in two games this year in what has been a low scoring season. This is a big departure from their normal scoring profile.
The Dogs are at the cross roads. They have lost their last three in a row and blown what looked a promising start to the year. They are playing patchy footy evidenced by losses to the Suns and Carlton. However they pushed Collingwood all the way in one of the most toughly contested games of the year.
Ross Lyon is targeting a flag in the next three years and he knows there is a lot of growth in still to come in his group. He will be looking for them to tick another box and win a game they are expected to win on the back of a spiked performance. This is a big query because in truth they are off a two game peak performance (even though they lost the Derby).
Hawthorn v Carlton – AFL tips Sunday
The first of our two AFL tips betting Sunday games sees Hawthorn really needing to get their season back on track and they take on Carlton. The Blues outfit will be full of confidence after their first win of the season and they managed to kick 100 points in the process. This is the first time Carlton has done this in over 60 games.
The Hawks were gallant but simply outclassed in their traditional Easter Monday clash. There is another aspect that needs to be considered here as well. Of the four sides to have played Geelong in the first four rounds of footy only one has gone on to cover the line handicap the next week (Collingwood). Many times the reason teams don’t cover the week after playing a Geelong type team is the intensity is so high in that game they can physically flatline the next week. So keep an eye out for this possible trend in the weeks ahead.
Carlton had been promising to win for a couple of weeks before breaking through. And that will release the pressure valve that has been building at Carlton for a while. This will either free them up to play a little more the way they want to or it may lead to some sort of relaxed attitude given they finally have a week where there has not been the external media.
Hawthorn rarely lose three in a row and Clarkson will be revving his troops up to swing the momentum. The Cats stat aside all things point to a bounce here for the Hawks.
Geelong v West Coast
The final game of the AFL tips betting for ANZAC round is arguably the match of the round as the top of the table Cats take on the reigning premiers the West Coast Eagles at the Cattery.
Geelong has clearly been the form side of the competition with their only loss at home two weeks ago against the GWS. West Coast has been a bit in and out and it hasn’t been easy to read them. They were comprehensively outplayed on Good Friday by a fired up Port Adelaide and I’m sure that didn’t sit well with the defending premiers. However Port Adelaide may have unveiled the way to beat the Eagles, keep the ball on the ground more than in the air to stall their kick/mark game.
Geelong have been up for a long time even though they will be smarting after a home loss (only 3 in last 3 years). They will need to bring their A1 game to get over the line. The Eagles are certain to bring an energized effort to tackle the heir apparent in what is one of the toughest trips in football. A spike is on the cards here for West Coast as we look for a bounce off a poor loss on the back of the Geelong peak last week.
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