AFL 2019 Round 1 Review
The AFL tips and betting season 2019 has completed round 1 and we now assess and dissect the round in our expert AFL tips as we look toward Round 2 and the implementation of our HBM Human Behaviour Model in assessing team performance in AFL tips to create investment opportunities in sports betting.
New AFL Rule brings in Defense First Focus
IN AFL tips and betting Round 1 we got the unexpected in what could happen when the rule changes the AFL Runner time on ground and the 6/6/6 Centre Square to open up the game and create a flow of scoring, it was the opposite the games dried up into a defense-fest that saw every match go under in the total points score markets. When you compare to last years’ AFL tips and betting 2018 had seven of nine matches top 170 points total points score. This year we had zero even reach 170 points let alone cover the total points score for Round 1.
AFL Coaches ahead of the Curve
Round 1 goes to the AFL Coaches! The reason for this we believe was the coaches were very heavily concerned about the flood gates opening up with the new 6x6x6 rule as well as not having the ability to get a Runner on the ground to give instruction during play. So whilst they didn’t reveal their hand this way in the JLT pre season games there is no question that the Coaches revolted against the “open game” policy that the AFL wanted to see and went about ensuring the scoring frequency was counteracted so defense first was the plan. It was evident in every game across the round, a pattern that needs to be watched in the weeks ahead and impacts on AFL betting.
You see, the AFL Coaches have always been and always will be ahead of the curve whatever the AFL Administration rules put in. That is what they do, analyse the game all day every day 24/7, so Gill, Hocking and Co. can do what they want. If they don’t get Coaches buy in to rule changes, they will simply go deeper and deeper in finding the solution that they want, not what the AFL want.
It also seemed that teams ball movement or more so lack of it contributed to the low scoring, partly this is attributed to the defense of the opposition team but it seemed that lack of understanding of game plan along with skill execution were also key contributors to the outcome. These are possibly two areas that will improve to create more scoring opportunities in the weeks ahead but something we need to monitor from an AFL tips and betting perspective.
Beware Big Heads and March Champions
History will show that Round 1 is to be treated with nothing more than a cursory glance when it comes to assessing teams chances for the year which is why our AFL tips and betting modelling using the HBM Human Behaviour Model does not apply. But without question there were some elements that need to be dissected a little further as to what they mean going forward.
It was a round for AFL betting roughie with many of the favoured teams beaten and seemingly that floated through round 1. Melbourne was a classic case in point as they turned up expecting to carry on from their second half of the year last season and were ambushed at home by a young side ready for the challenge.
Our scouting information suggests that a number of Melbourne players had post season operations and that “contact” at training was banned until recent weeks. It showed as Melbourne played like they had not earnt a hard ball in a long while and as a result Goodwin will now be tested.
Adelaide Crows a poor loss!
Adelaide Crows were another example of turning up, thinking they would just take the points after burying the terrible season of 2018. Don Pyke went about “making footy fun” to try and bond the group together. Big mistake for two reasons, one it wasn’t genuine it was a manufactured environment that was falsely jovial and the focus went to fun and they forgot about footy. They were inept against a well coached Hawks by the Master Coach Clarkson and he and his players came to town with a purpose.
Every man and their dog in Adelaide wanted to tell you why 2018 was only a blip on the radar and that the Crows would march back into the AFL Grand Final in 2019. Based on Round 1, it seems some of the players believed it, they lacked fight and hunger and now have Sydney away and Geelong the next two games.
2018 Premiers get rolled as well
West Coast Eagles, the defending Premiers were another side that seemed to have basked in the glory a little long. The Eagles were taken to town by a young exciting Brisbane Lions side who showed all the grit and hunger you need to win at the top level. Yes its true that the Eagles were lacking their key forward timber but that’s no excuse for the touch up they got in the midfiled. Brisbane is a side on the rise and one to watch.
And the Bombers badly rolled by GWS Giants
Essendon is yet another example of a side that looked like they would just turn up in 2019 and play AFL finals. They were the form side of the AFL in the second half of the year in 2019 and once again they looked like another team that had recruited well floated through the off season waiting for the season to start so they could play AFL finals. Well they copped a reality check and they really need to go about rectifying this quickly because last year it took them to sack a Senior Assistant Coach before they decided they wanted to play.
Of the weekend you could not but be impressed with the wins of Port Adelaide Brisbane, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs but beware the March Champions and this is where our HBM Human Behaviour Model kicks in to analyse the “bounce” and “over performance” of teams in elite sport. Richmond, Hawthorn and Geelong were other sides who won Round 1 and showed they are ready and also have a track record of showing they are ready with strong exhibitions of game style execution.
In conclusion for AFL tips and betting Round 1, “Big Heads and March Champions” is the theme of Round 1. Looking forward to a massive AFL tips and betting Round 2 as our analysis model starts to kick in.