AFL tips betting Round 5 – Fremantle home $5.40 and +35.5
The AFL tips betting Round 5 results continue the topsy turvy season that is AFL betting 2019. When the Kiss of Death tipster is leading the Herald Sun tipping (it picks the underdogs) you know it is a season of uncertainty.
Our Human Behavior Model has become a great analysis tool as it predicts the ebbs and flows of performance in team sports and given the continued closeness of AFL teams is serving us well in creating winning results in our AFL betting and tips. Our AFL tips had a nice result with Fremantle home as a big outsider at $5.40 but disappointing results with North, Melbourne and Sydney.
Lion Cubs tamed by real-deal Collingwood
Big AFL tips betting Thursday night game and for the second week in a row the Brisbane Lions failed to measure up in a much hyped game and were again intimidated by a big Melbourne club.
It was a stark reminder that despite how good the Lions have been early there are still some learnings to be had. It was a sellout for the first time in nine years at the Gabba and listening to former Lions captain Jonathan Brown he mentioned this game used to be built up as their Grand Final when he was there as it was centre stage.
Well after being touched up in a hyped game at the MCG last week v Essendon, the Lions were left lamenting this time at home. It was all Collingwood from the get go, really fast start fantastic footy transition keeping in line with their uncontested mark game.
It was high octane stuff and a really good effort considering the month of footy they have had and the ANZAC Day game up next versus Essendon. Buckley has his Pies humming and they are serious players in 2019!
Good Friday a bad one for Kangaroos
When a club works for over a decade to secure a marquee game and make a day their own you would hope their players respect the day enough to bring a contest. North Melbourne failed miserably at achieving this in a one sided AFL tips betting Good Friday match.
Essendon were much maligned in the opening two rounds and questions being raised on coach Whoosha’s position. Both have changed as they have gone on a three game tearaway scoring feast of 368 points winning three in a row.
We call it Essendon “rip, shit or bust” aka good old all out attack AFL football!
There is no question that the relaxing of the instruction from coaching staff at Essendon and allowing the players to play what they see in front of them has allowed the Bombers to play on “instinct” more often than not this means players are “in the zone” where they are free from thinking and have the freedon to play-its working well for Essendon at the moment.
It was a Good Friday Night AFL for Port
Talk about much maligned! The Good Friday AFL tips betting night game was the West Coast and Port .
“We needed to ensure there was a lot of “dirty” ball tonight”. “That was our best hope to win”. These were the comments of Port Adelaide co-captain Ollie Wines after Ports ambush of the Eagles in Perth.
What Wines was referring to was ensuring there was no real clean ball for the Eagle forwards. This was a big game for Port Adelaide after a poor game the week before against Richmond, however it did nothing to dispel the theory of Port versus Expectation.
It was yet another example of Port bringing their best when the best isn’t expected of them. That said however it was a brilliant win.
Dockers in a big $5.40 win bet for our AFL tips betting
The Dockers get it done in the AFL tips betting tips game Easter Saturday and a big $5.40 win and +35.5 line play for us.
It had been a big month of footy for GWS with good wins against Essendon, Richmond and Geelong. They also had a trip to Perth against the defending Premiers where they weren’t disgraced so a let down was on the cards at some point.
It was a potent forward line that went to action for the Dockers with Hogan, Walters , Taberner and Matera (4) all kicking 3 plus goals and it really made for an entertaining style of play not necessarily something associated with a Ross Lyon coached team.
As far as the GWS are concerned the loss is perhaps not the worrying sign here it was the way they were smashed at centre clearance and also the way they dropped right away in the final quarter. next week to make sure that last weeks effort was a one off.
Heaven for the Saints and Hell for the Demons
St Kilda continued their remarkable start to the AFL tips betting season in their best win yet making it 4 out of 5 wins beating the Demons at the MCG.
The Saints are a committed group who are working for each other. They have ruthless intensity and their running power along with ability to apply a physical presence is very strong.
For a side that was ruthless and went on a rampage last year to charge into the Preliminary Final there is a lot of things missing for Melbourne. Coach Simon Goodwin puts it a “very easy side to play against” and that about as big a sledge to your players as you can get.
We have heard about their slow start to the year with off season injuries but its now 5 weeks in if not now then when? They are simply not running or working hard enough you only have to watch Saturdays game and there is example after example of Saints players running straight past their opponents to get the Sherrin.
A block of Swiss Cheese has less holes than the Demons defense at the moment. it gets no easier for them next week with their big Anzac Eve blockbuster against the Tigers at the MCG.
The Saints on the other hand look to be well and truly on the right track, come up against the Crows.
Richmond back on track defeat Swans
The AFL tips betting Saturday night as the Tigers chalked up back to back wins in a double peak performance and really bought the heat that took them all the way in 2017. Hardwick has done a fantastic job after loses to the Pies and the GWS and missing a host of star players. He has rallied the troops for a strong win against the Power and then turned it up a notch to dispose of the Swans.
Sydney have been the pin up club over the last 15 years never really bottoming out and always bringing the pressure and effort needed for success. This has dropped away they look in trouble.
Richmond front up for the big ANZAC Eve clash against Melbourne whilst Sydney have the GWS for the Sydney Derby.
Carlton get’s the chocolates on Easter Sunday
This moment felt like a mile away when Carlton gave up the lead in the last 10 seconds against the Suns last week. Many were left thinking when would their first win come little were we to know it would only be a week later against the Dogs at Marvel.
The Blues had been working toward this win. They had reduced their losing margin to an average of only 17 points this year down from 50 odd of last season. Carlton appear much improved and the decrease is average losing margin is significant.
The Bulldogs are an interesting side at the moment. They have issues forward with accuracy in goal kicking rearing its head again. It’s a big game for the Dogs next week in the West against a Dockers as they look for a bounce with the Dockers off the big peak performance.
Bubble bursts for Suns, Crows find mojo and Eddie kicks six
Adelaide for the first time in the AFL tips betting tips season finally started to resemble a side that had some semblance of the 2017 team. They moved the ball with intent and speed and the forwards were leading up at the ball and really effective. Not something we have seen in a while. After a very scrappy opening term (only 1 goal kicked in Q1) Eddie Betts put on a master class celebrating his 300thAFL game with 6 goals.
The left foot checkside that will win goal of the year was vintage Betts and it was the very thing that has seen him play 300 from the toughest spot on the ground.
The Suns had been up for a month of footy and winning three games in a row by under a kick there was always the question on when a “dip” may come due to the intensity they have had to hold to win these close games.
It totally fell apart for the Suns and the tape will give Dew some sleepless nights as his young group totally lost the plot. On the flipside it may give coach Pyke a little but more sleep than he has been enjoying lately as his blueprint began to resurface in the last three quarters of football.
The big test for the Crows is can they do it this week in their big clash with the Saints in Melbourne with St Kilda on a big peak run.
Geelong Cats purr back to the top of the AFL table
Geelong don’t take kindly to losing and their coach Chris Scott went where he hasn’t had to go so far this season. Selwood into the middle and it was a stunning move he single handedly bullocked his way into the third quarter to get the Cats on top of a high scoring AFL game against arch rival Hawthorn.
Coach Alistair Clarkson tried the “to be harder for longer” line but when you strip it all back the Hawks really lost he game in red time. They conceded 9 goals to 3 in this period covering the losing margin. They are having a go which is the dilemma for Clarkson and Hawthorn. It is a real balance between getting them to deliver what he wants and reinforcing that they are also doing a lot well.
Geelong go back to the top of the table and it’s a big game for the Cats against the Eagles next week!
Big Anzac Day Eve and Anzac Day games
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