AFL Tips finals week 1 wrap
Our AFL tips and betting had a winning weekend week 1 of the AFL finals and very nearly a 100% strike rate as we head on the path of the AFL Grand Final.
Richmond got our AFL tips for AFL finals week 1 off to a flyer on a -16.5 and win $1.40 result over Hawthorn and Melbourne were far too good -3.5 and win $1.80 over Geelong. We just missed on Collingwood in a cracking game against West Coast.
Richmond…now an even money flag favourite
Richmond are now a very solid $1.90 favourite for this years AFL Grand Final premiership. They looked like the only fleetingly got out of third gear Thursday night against the Hawks and certainly had another gear at least to go. Outside of a very bad day, we cannot see them being beaten. Of course that does not necessarily mean they are a betting proposition as a favourable + handicap line on an outsider might be a nice play. They are an excellent team the Tigers.
Hawks to fight back
Hawthorn were ok without being blown away in their Qualifying Final although we think the 95-64 result flattered them somewhat. They weren’t quite “rabbits in the spotlight” but not far off. However they can bounce back and Coach Clarkson has a happy knack of producing “bounce sides”. The recent results for losing Qualifying Finals sides winning the next week is only 60%. They do play Melbourne who are coming off a huge peak performance after last weeks win. Whilst a straight set loss here for the Hawks is not the end of the world in terms of the 2018 season, Clarkson will be an “angry ant” looking to get his side up.
A 12 year wait was worth it for the Demons
It was a long but pleasurable wait for all Melbourne supporters as their return to the finals resulted in a 75-46 win over a disappointing Geelong. We were very bullish Melbourne as we felt Geelong’s lead in games left them unprepared for a big final and so it was with Melbourne’s heat just too strong for the Cats. Melbourne now go onto the Hawks knock out final with their tails up and for the Cats tails between their legs and a big question mark over the mature player recruiting strategy that leaves them with little to show for and minimal top 20 draft picks in the stable.
GWS flying, where to for the Swans
GWS had a brilliant 79-30 win over Sydney to cement themselves as a legitimate player here for the rest of the finals series. Our view is GWS has the second best talent list in the AFL and this talent performing at its best can take them deep into the AFL finals. They have experience having played in the last two Prelim finals and generally travel well. However they do come up against the Magpie army at the G.
Sydney is not the same side as recent years and are at the cross roads. If we were the Swans recruiting team, we would be trading some of the senior talent they have that has market currency looking to bring in young talent or younger experienced players to take the next climb. We do not believe that the current group can do this. Watch this space.
West Coast and Collingwood in a beauty
This game was by far the best of the AFL tips week 1 AFL finals and was a beauty. It was not until very late in the game when the winner was clear and it does show that a marking forward (see Kennedy) can make all the difference in big finals. Collingwood was very brave and a repeat of this effort on the MCG will see them as tough to beat.