AFL tips betting preview round 5
AFL tips betting round 5 and 6 are chaotic with the rounds spanning the Easter and Anzac Day holidays so don’t get caught out with games on nearly every day of the week.
AFL tips betting last week 52% return, 64% win rate, 7 winners
We had excellent AFL tips results for AFL betting round 4 with 7 of 11 winners the headline number resulting in a 52% return on invested funds on a 64% win rate.
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AFL tips betting Thursday night Blockbuster
Brisbane v Collingwood The AFL tips betting Good Friday eve game shapes as a ripper. The Brisbane Lions will be chomping at the bit to get back home and defend the Gabba. They are unbeaten there this year and they will continue to take big scalps up there.
Collingwood are coming through a high intensity contested Friday night game against the Bulldogs and it was the last game in what has been a demanding month. Collingwood could be in danger of a letdown here on the back of that four weeks and with the big Anzac Day clash next week, there has been no time to breathe for them.. Brisbane on the other hand were embarrassed last week at the home of footy and Fagan noted his players were “intimidated” by the opposition crowd and the aura of the venue. The AFL betting here is tight at -8.5 the Pies.
Good Friday North v Essendon
The first of two AFL betting tips Good Friday games is the Kangaroos taking on Essendon. Both come off strong showings last weekend. The Kangaroos had big problems with centre clearance in the first 3 rounds but they were really able to clean that up against the Crows last week.
Essendon have been dominant in the last couple of weeks now that they are playing to their strengths instead of trying to mould to heavily defensively. Their uptempo fast “rip, shit, bust” style has the Bombers with outside speed advantage in this game and they are one of the sides in the AFL that has been able to transition the ball at break neck speed in the last couple of weeks.
The Kangaroos will need to try and beat them in the inside, they look a little more solid in this department but the connection going forward for the Roos has been an issue and defensively they have leaked goals. This is on the quick deck at Marvel a surface the Bombers thrive they are coming off a peak performance rating last week.
Good Friday West Coast v Port
The second AFL tips betting Good Friday game is the Eagles hosting Port Adelaide. The Eagles are getting through without really getting their game going and this was evident post match with coach Adam Simpson saying “the only area of the game we appeared to win was the scoreboard”. it was an insight to his side being outplayed but still finding a way to win.
Port Adelaide continued their inconsistent form going down to the less fancied Tigers further painting them as a side that simply fails to handle expectations. Essentially Port Adelaide play well when not expected to and invariably get beaten when they are red hot favourites and they succumbed yet again as favourite last week.
Port Adelaide cannot win the close ones
The other damning stat against Port Adelaide is their lack of ability to win close games. They have a 5 win 15 loss stat in games that are 10 points or under since 2015, it’s the sign of a brittle group. The Eagles are not a side that generally falls away after their “Derby”, in fact they are generally strong when home two weeks in a row and in the equivalent game last year they beat up on Port Adelaide winning by 40 points.
This is a game that you would expect the Eagles to win well. The irony is that these are the sort of games Port play well in and in AFL betting it’s a -27.5 West Coast.
AFL tips betting Easter Saturday
GWS v Fremantle
Easter Saturday footy takes AFL tips betting to Canberra. The Giants have been in stunning form and they are a physically brutal side and have been at a high level of performance each week. The question is can they keep producing this top level after a tough battle winning in the last few minutes against the Cats in a massive peak performance.
Fremantle were very good against the Eagles last week doing a lot right but not getting the job done on the scoreboard, and this trip to Canberra is one of the toughest in footy particularly for Fremantle who have only beaten the Giants once in their time in the AFL.
Callan Ward is a big omission for the Giants who will be looking for others to step up and fill the leadership void left by their combative co-captain. In AFL betting this is a -34.5 and short $1.15 favourite GWS.
AFL tips betting Easter Saturday Melbourne v St Kilda
The MCG is where AFL tips betting goes for Easter Saturday with the Demons taking on the Saints. It was as though the Demons went into the changerooms last week at half time and thought our season is done if we don’t get moving. They came out and delivered an excellent third quarter to get the job done and may be the spark to get their season rolling.
The Saints are a team who have shown real spirit in the opening month of footy and come here on a double peak performance line cover run. They have surpassed all expectations and there is no doubt a dip might be around the corner it may even be this weekend, but for a side who was under the biggest scrutiny off season they have responded well.
Richmond v Sydney
The Saturday night AFL tips betting game is Richmond taking on the Swans. Sydney are really a side struggling at the moment losing both their home games really lacking midfield depth and their connection going forward isn’t working well. It was evidenced again on Thursday night with Buddy trying to shoot goals from 70 metres out and they really are looking a side all at sea with their only win coming against and inaccurate Blues who probably should’ve beat them.
The Tigers look to be heading in the other direction, their win as an undermanned side was full of merit and something Damian Hardwick would be super proud of. They come off a big peak performance win over Port Adelaide and how he handles the “come down” from that win will go a long way to the result of this game.
But quite often when these two scenarios present (a team looking terrible and a team looking great) often neither of those things are 100% true, nothing is ever as good or bad as it looks.
There is only one way for Sydney to go, they are at rock bottom, the line bet may be something worth looking at particularly given this game is at Marvel Stadium a ground where Richmond generally don’t bring their highest rating performances.
AFL tips betting Easter Sunday
Bulldogs v Carlton
Easter Sunday sees two AFL tips betting matches the first of them is the Bulldogs taking on the winless Blues. The Bulldogs are coming off one of the highest “intensity rating” games of the season. It was a hard grinding contested game against the Pies and the Bulldogs have been up for the first month of footy. Their challenge will be to mentally hold that space when its possible they may see Carlton as an “easier” game.
Carlton are their own worst enemy they are going missing in patches of footy. One thing that is difficult to criticise is Carltons work rate there really hasn’t been a match this year where you walk away feeling they “had more left” they simply are just not good enough to win at the moment.
The twilight AFL tips betting Easter Sunday game is the Adelaide Crows taking on the Gold Coast Suns. Adelaide are shot at the moment and they look a mere shadow of their former 2017 selves. There is still bad stuff lingering around Adelaide and its most evident in their on ground performance. It looks like there is a big trust problem at Adelaide and there doesn’t look a quick fix anywhere soon.
One thing that could be to their advantage is that this week is Eddie Betts 300th game. It seems Eddie is loved by everyone at the club and wanting to make sure he is rewarded in the right way (with a win) may be just enough to reunite the group tp create a circuit breaker.
Gold Coast have been an extraordinary story all of their matches have been decided by less than a kick and they sit 3-1 on the ledger, its no stretch to say they could be 4-0 at the same time the reverse is also true 0-4 is also totally in the calculations.
AFL tips betting Easter Monday
The Easter Monday AFL tips betting tips blockbuster is the Hawks taking on Geelong. Hawthorn have struggled in two of their matches this year losing players for significant minutes of the game due to both contact and soft tissue injuries, they lost both of those games.
It was very interesting listening to Alistair Clarkson post match after being beaten by the Saints when quizzed about the rule changes and what they all mean. “When so many rules are altered you never know which one is going to stick and make the most change I think you will find most of the clubs are lost on what the rule changes mean and you can see that in the results”. This from a 4 time premiership coach, obviously still trying to get up to speed on the best way to attack this “new” game so to speak.
Geelong has been on the up in the opening month of footy and they were still very good despite losing in a really combative game against the Giants last week and could well bounce off the loss. These two generally play a highly competitive contest.
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