AFL Thursday night
Thursday night footy gets the AFL betting tips weekend as we head to a massive weekend of AFL tips and the season is a close one which is ideal for AFL betting opportunities as we search through our analysis using our HBM Human Behaviour Model of analysis of team sports.
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Human Behaviour Model methodology of analysis – read more
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AFL Thursday night
Thursday night kicks off AFL tips bettingwith a five Day break for the Swans who are searching to rediscover home dominance. This is something that has eluded them badly over the last 12 months and Melbourne to this point have been the most disappointing side of 2019. They keep talking about their form “will come” well in case they haven’t noticed their season has all but slipped away and this is a tight AFL bettingmarket with a -4.5 home side position.
The Swans were far from convincing getting the points over the Blues, who if they kicked straight should’ve probably snared it, but maybe that win can give the Swans some added confidence to go on with the job. There is just one big concern, the Swans midfield is not firing. If there is one area that Melbourne have got rolling it is their midfield as they are really getting it done averaging 60 inside 50’s and 17 centre clearances whereas Sydney with 52 inside 50’s and 11 centre clearances are lagging behind.
Sydney covered the line handicap in what was a peak performance last week under our modelling as Melbourne look for a bounce in form and confidence.
AFL Friday night Collingwood v Bulldogs
As discussed in our AFL betting tips season preview Collingwood had a very tough fixture this year ranked the hardest in the AFL. They have had three tough games and sit 1-2 could easily be 2-1, the key element though in our view is what we refer to as “intensity rating”. Collingwood have to this point been involved in the three highest level intensity rating games of the year, put simply this means they have been operating in the highest class games in the three rounds so far. They do have a massive class edge here against the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are 2-1, they had a great win against the Swans (who are not the Swans of yester year), they came from behind to beat the Hawks (who had two on the bench and the Dogs had 4 goals from free kicks late) and then they lost to the Suns.
Collingwood go into this game with an extra days break and with an “intensity” edge, this generally gives a hard edge to the players and the Pies get the chance to level their season up at 2-2 in possibly their “easiest” game to this point.
Geelong at home versus the GWS Giants
Saturday kicks off with our AFL betting tips match of the round its first versus fourth in a mouth watering clash at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong. The Cats have been faultless this season with their new experienced recruits finding their mojo and applying manic like pressure in the forward 50. The Defence have been as stingy as their defensive coach Matthew Scarlett was and with the youth stepping into the midfield and getting it done have allowed a luxury of Selwood to a wing and Ablett forward.
The GWS Giants are not to be discounted as they have dominated in their two wins at home (Essendon and Richmond) and although well beaten in the West it was at the hand of the defending premier. This on paper shapes to be the highest “intensity rating” game of the season so far this is a classy match that will hold very strong form going forward and the Giants may be just over the odds here as Geelong is on the triple game peak performance cover run.
Essendon take on the Lions
Saturday arvo AFL betting tips footy heads to the MCG for what promises to be an entertaining clash Essendon up against the newly confident Lions. Essendon will get a lot of confidence after a high scoring win against Melbourne, however they will need to tighten the defence up if they are to trouble the 3-0 Lions.
Brisbane really seem to have it together Lachie Neale has been devastating moving into outright second fav for the AFL tips Brownlow meldal, and the connection with this group looks solid a big tick to Chris Fagan. Brisbane also seem to have adapted to the no runner policy, possibly having a “secondary coach” like Luke Hodge on the field has helped in this area.
Brisbane have a young team and they have had a flying start to the season, a dip is coming and on the back off three game peak performance line cover games this will be a high octane game with Essendon last week reverting to their customary rip, shit or bust attacking high scoring style.
Beware the wounded Tiger or Port to bounce
The AFL betting tips twilight game heads to Adelaide and for the first time since 2010 the Tigers will be without the big 4 inCotchin, Rance, Riewoldt and Dusty.
That’s right, your four best players out! Over that time span they have had at least two of those players in the side and it’s a new look to take on the Power.
Port Adelaide need to reconsolidate, they had the game shot to bits in Brisbane and handed it up being outmuscled in the last quarter, also elementary set shot goals were costly, this is a prime opportunity for Port Adelaide to bounce or are we seeing the re-emergence of the “old” Port Adelaide.
Bristly Brad looking for a win versus Wobbly Crows
We see “Bristly Brad Scott” in action for the AFL betting tips Saturday night clash as the winless Kangaroos take on a wobbly Adelaide.
Both of these sides are bereft of confidence and have no real certainty or flow to their game, this will simply come back to who is going to have a harder edge about them, because this really is do or die for both clubs. Brad Scott will do his banana if they lose again, its very funny stuff and we wonder whether “jokes” is still the order of the day for Don “The Don” Pyke.
The Western Derby
The “Western Derby” is the other big AFL betting tips Saturday night clash, and the Dockers need a big lift to win. The Eagles have dominated the purple haze winning the last seven encounters and this is a big run of dominance in a game that means so much in the immediate community.
Generally these sorts of tribal games are a “50-50” despite ladder position however the Dockers simply haven’t been able to deliver. They will need every ounce of luck this week against a white hot Eagles and probably Freo without their skipper Nate Fyfe.
It’s the first match under premiership points heat that Gaff confronts his demons from the Brayshaw punch in the last Derby of last year that saw him miss a flag. Ross Lyon is a strong combative personality he simply wont stand for a continued patch of dominance of another club over them he will have something up his sleeve as we look to a Dockers bounce of sorts against a two game cover run of West Coast.
Sunday AFL
The first game sees the battle for what at the start of the year would’ve been seen as the battle for the wooden spoon, that looks a bit different now it’s the Gold Coast taking on Carlton. The Suns were merely 1 point away from the perfect 3-0 start to the season, at the same time they were only 8 points away from a 0-3 start to the year, it’s a game of inches as they say.
Carlton have been “better” and we are about to se how “better”. Carlton can win this match make no mistake and despite the results they don’t look far away maybe this can be the opening to their account for 2019
The final game of the AFL betting tips round is St Kilda up against Hawthorn. The Saints are travelling back from a pretty tough match in W.A. that was on the back of two wins. They are at Marvel Stadium which gives them more of a chance than if it was at the MCG.
Marvel stadium is a little hinderance for the Hawks they are a 2-3 goal worse side there compared to the MCG but if they can rediscover their Round 1 form them they should account for the Saints although no Burgoyne and Shiels their midfield drive is lacking a bit. The Saints are on a double game peak performance run and have been up for the start of the AFL season but is it sustainable?
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AFL tips and betting 2019
Every round, every game
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