AFL tips betting – round 7 winning results
It as an excellent winning weekend in AFL tips betting for AFL round 7. Some outstanding AFL tips results underpinned the weekend AFL bets for subscribers in round 7.
AFL tips betting winning Round 7 weekend included two 3 unit Best Bets as the standout plays for us. Our analysis and betting methodology using the Human Behaviour Model really kicked in as produced a nice profit for the round in our AFL tips.
You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports athttps://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
AFL tips betting – the key results
Based on $100 unit bets key return statistics on results for AFL tips betting Round 7:
120% return on our 3 unit Best Bets
55% return on invested funds
58% strike rate on all bets
58% increased unit return on all bets
Bulldogs 2 units +16.5 at $2.00 and 1 unit win $4.00
North Melbourne 1.5 unit win $1.60 and .5 unit -10.5 at $2.00
Geelong 2 units win $1.60 and 1 unit -10.5 at $2.00
Adelaide 1 unit win $1.35
Stats Analysis and Algorithmic Programmes
Over the last 20 years the proliferation of stats analysis and algorithmic programming to arrive at a number to frame a sports market has exploded. What this has done is heavily skewed the betting markets to “quantitative” formats. This means once all stats are crunched and loaded into the algorithmic program the bookies and punters arrive at a hard number and that becomes the market. At iTipsports we came to the conclusion that we couldn’t “out math” the bookies as they have teams of quants and spend many tens of million a year to attempt to stay ahead of the pack.
Human Beahviour Model HBM
However there is one area they grossly underestimate in their programming and that is the human athlete themselves. Humans are not robots they are humans and as such they are like the rest of us and have up and down days.
We have developed our proprietary “HBM Human Behaviour Model” that is based on Human Behaviour And Performance Principles. It allows us to make an educated assessment as to whether the athletes are likely to be playing to their best or maybe below their best for any number of reasons.
In a high intensity and combative sport (like AFL and also NRL, NFL, EPL) when the real difference between top and bottom is not a lot on any given day being able to predict the “arousal” level of the athletes gives us a big advantage against the market.
They pay little or no attention to the athlete as a human but treat them more as a number. What we have figured out is it’s the human that produces the number-so we like to assess the athlete as to whether he is likely to play above or below his usual “number/performance”
Peak Performances and Bounce Teams
Our two key assessment points and terminology in our AFL tips betting is ‘Peak Performance Runs” and “Bounce Teams”. These are two of our key pieces of data that we overlay with bookies odds to establish whether a team is an AFL tips bet.
A review of our AFL tips betting bounce and peak performance investments for last weekend are as follows:
* Bulldogs were a “bounce” team on the back of an extended Richmond three game peak performance run. Result – Bulldogs WIN $4.00 and +16.5
* Essendon on a powerful four game “peak performance run” versus Geelong on only a one game run. Result – Geelong win $1.60 and -10.5
* North Melbourne on a one game peak run versus Carlton on a three game peak run. Result – North win $1.60 and -10.5
* Adelaide on a two game peak run versus Fremantle on a strong three game peak performance run. Result – Adelaide win $1.35
If you are into your sports betting and are keen on AFL tips betting you can give us a try. We provide commentary on all AFL games and provide unit stakes for all bets. We strongly advise you use a starting betting bank that you are comfortable investing into the AFL tips betting market.
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AFL tips and betting 2019
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