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AFL Stats that Count Rd 8

iTipsports AFL The Stats that Count….

Straight up, Melbourne, GWS and Bulldogs are the 3 worst teams in the AFL. No great surprise here, other than it is hard to see anyone of them beating any other team except each other based on current stats. They are woeful…yes from time to time they may outperform but winning is not on the cards based on what we are looking at. This is a positive for Gold Coast looking for their 4th season this week and looks bad for Melbourne v Richmond and GWS v Hawthorn heaven forbid!

Interesting that Geelong, despite being 7-0, do not dominate the stats sheet. They are a burst team, put sides away in the most efficient manner positive and in doing so are a model of consistency, in that they do it against the best, middle ranked and bottom teams. But they are not statistically the best ranked side. This gives Collingwood, at their best, some chance v the Cats this week. But…can you get Collingwood at their best??? Seems to be a disconnect in game style at the moment, going from Micks outside channel game to Bucks more uptempo game. What this results in is under Mick, less turnover goals because the ball is wide, but now more central, the Pies  get done on the counter punch and do not have mids that work hard defensively. If Buckley can this fixed in his players they can make an impact this year, if not…trouble. They need to deliver this week v Cats and at best can.

Essendon are the highest ranked stats side on our numbers. Short kick, uncontested possession game with good levels of efficiency inside 50 and high rank contested possession all goes well for Bombers this season.

North Melbourne and West Coast are the two smokeys on our numbers and ironically they play each other this Friday night. West Coast appear to have numbers that look like break out time, low inside 50s but high percentage score and goals meaning an increase in inside 50s and goal average will mean significant difference to the Eagles performance. North do not have break out numbers but overall numbers that reflect a side better performed than a 3-4 12th ranked team. A bad start amy ultimately hurt them as they will likely have to play catch up all year, but they are consistent and if can maintain this will win more than they lose.

Hawthorns numbers look strong and after a tough draw in the from third of the season now get a chance to assert their ladder position playing GWS, Suns and Melbourne next 3 weeks.

Gold Coast has definitely improved, mid table rankings now as opposed to bottom 4 last year. Good numbers in contested possession, would like to see the uncontested numbers higher but overall is significantly up year on year, as you would hope if you were the AFL.  Port Adelaide has clearly improved, top 4 inside 50s, good conversions and high rank short kick and uncontested means Hinckley and Burgess has made the difference there and gives them a chance v Carlton this week.

The rot has not set in yet at Brisbane but is close…very close.

St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond and Carlton do not at this point have clearly defined trend paths and stats indicators, which suggests at this point these teams are fighting for 5-8 spots not 1-4. However we are watching these 5 closely for stats break out trends to emerge.

 

Good Luck and Good Punting,
The iTipsports Crew