Geelong VS Essendon
Well the Cats showed a ton of class and composure (again, 7 weeks in a row) in this game despite being 5 goal down in the 2nd qtr. At no stage did they panic in fact quite the opposite they showed great levels of maturity even to the point of calling moves themselves out on the ground to disarm the Bombers. Inaccuracy in front of goal was costly for the Bombers (1-9 3rd qtr) and certainly helped us cover the line. The Cats are absolutely the real deal and Chris Scott still tells us they are a long way off their best footy…understated and the way to Coach for sure. Bombers play Brisbane in a percentage game and Geelong v Collingwood at the G.
Port Adelaide VS Richmond
Well as we expected the Tigers were able to bring a strong level of hunger to this one after losing three in a row. We were very pleased with our update on this game (see below) and the further recommendation when the line went out to +13.5…what a gift. It is undoubtedly the most around the ball pressure Port have experienced this year. Richmond showed us the difference between a side genuinely challenging for finals and one still with some work to do. Port are not coming out switched on, yet another terrible start and they need to fix this quick. We cover and handsomely. Port play Carlton in Melbourne and Richmond looking to percentage v Melbourne.
PORT ADELAIDE VS RICHMOND – UPDATE SENT SATURDAY MORNING OF GAME
You will see below that we have referenced the 3 talls for Richmond inc Vickery, who is now out of the Richmond side. We are still of the view that Riewoldt and McGuane will trouble Port with Carlile in ave form and Trengove and Petterd. Cotchin is also out but we had factored that in. The line has moved to +13.5 Richmond and we retain them as a Strong Bet at +13.5
A really intriguing match here, leaning to the Tigers at the line for a couple of reasons. I think Port Adelaide is heavily exposed defensively without Trengove and Pittard and their defense will have their hands full with Riewoldt, Vickery and McGuane. Also I believe the Tigers will be hungry (lost last 3) and combine this with the great belief they have when coming to AAMI to play Port (won 3 of last 4 other one was a 3 pt loss) I think they can bring a very strong performance. From the Port Adelaide perspective there is no doubt that their never say die attitude and supreme fitness levels have been impressive this year, it is also important to note that their skipper Boak spoke to the players post game about “stopping the rot” referring to their inability to start games well he is becoming one great leader. No doubt this pattern of slow starts will be a huge focus for them this week, and it may produce dividends. It is going to be a great game of footy i think it is a 50/50 game and for that reason i am with the Tigers at the line.
The Professor says Richmond +8.5 Strong Bet
Brisbane VS West Coast
Well as we predicted the Lions showed a lot of fight for most of the game however i must admit that the last minute or two was a little unsettling for us with line! A few nervous moments however it did look as though the Eagles were in “look ahead” mode as they are capable of a lot better showing than that. Their recent poor travel record to Brisbane continued but they will be hard to beat next Friday night in the West. West Coast v North this week in Perth whilst Brisbane v Essendon in Melbourne with Voss under serious pressure.
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs stuck to their task a touch longer than I expected but boy did the floodgates open in the last qtr in what is a really bad sign for the Dogs. Majak Daw was absolutely brilliant and he is going to be a real drawcard for the Roos in years to come. The Bulldogs are in for a long tough year as we expected at the start of the year and there is not a lot of hope on the horizon for them. We cover the -36.5 line. North in a blockbuster v Eagles Friday night and Dogs get their chance v Gold Coast.
Hawthorn VS Sydney
Beware the beaten grand finalists and didn’t the Hawks come out to play. The Swans terrible MCG record continues (2 of last 16, does include the premiership though). The Hawks were relentless all night and one of the areas that I thought may be concerning was discipline but they were as strong as it comes in this area and really ripped it apart. No doubt pound for pound the most talented list in the comp but will not often be a betting proposition. Hawks v GWS this week in Tassie and Swans play Freo in Sydney in a tough one.
Fremantle VS Collingwood
Well you really have to praise the effort of the Dockers they really wanted to win this and it showed. Their intent and pressure from the first qtr was unbelievable and the character they showed to respond and kick away in the final term was brilliant particularly with Griffen going down with a knee earlier in the game. Collingwood players need to make a decision if they want to do something this year or waste it. Bucks knows this and I think he gave a good indication that he is handing the responsibility back to this group to deliver when he said in the presser “I don’t know what went wrong at the start, you would have to ask the players in fact I have asked them to figure it out now behind closed doors right now. So we get no answers on this until this weekend re Geelong. Fremantle off to Sydney v Swans.
GWS VS Adelaide
Well I got this totally wrong-, the GWS bought absolutely nothing to the table and the Crows bought plenty. How the heck does Tom Lynch kick 10 goals in an AFL game? Kevin Sheedy must be sticking pins in his eyes as opposed to watching the video replay…it would be less painful and these are a young group of players trying to make their way but they are really lacking strong leadership out on the ground and the physical and mental ability to apply themselves week in week and week out is simply not there. The Crows on the other hand got a nice boost of confidence here but it could be short lived, it is really up to the playing group to now take it and run with it with a key game next week VS the Saints in the context of their season. GWS v Hawthorn in Tassie…ahhhhhhh!!!!
Carlton v St Kilda
Carlton never looked like it…they did not turn up until ¾ time. Etihad is a problem for the Blues, the G is their home. Saints love Etihad and play well there. Gutsy win for the Saints even though Blues came hard late. Micks bandwagon in halt for time being, Blues ahead of themselves…it can happen.Carlton play Port in a big one as is Saints v Adelaide in Adelaide