AFL tipping and betting 2017 – Round 6 100% strike rate
5 winners from 5 bets Round 6…100% AFL tipping 2017 strike rate!
Congratulations to subscribers with a fantastic result in Round 6. We cracked the jackpot with a 100% strike rate in Round 6 with the four winners in our line bets, Melbourne winning at $1.95 win and Collingwood getting home at $3.60 win as a 0.5 unit Strong Bet.
Our bets for AFL 2017 Round 6 were as follows:
3 unit Best Bet – Western Bulldogs +20.5
0.5 unit – Western Bulldogs WIN $3.25
Bet – 1 unit St Kilda +3.5
Bet – 1 unit Gold Coast +14.5
Bet .5 unit Gold Coast win $2.85
2 unit Strong Bet – Collingwood +25.5
0.5 unit Collingwood win $3.70
Here is a look at our commentary and tips for Round 6 AFL and you can join iTipsports AFL for only $9 per week at https://itipsports.com.au/#
AFL 2017 Round 6 – Friday night game
GWS v Bulldogs
GWS Giants are on a four game win streak and cover the line. They look very strong. The Bulldogs have covered the line only once but sit 4-1, quite a remarkable stat. They have been most unimpressive but continue to win. We are putting this down to the “premiership hangover”. We have been waiting for it to finish and suspect this may be this week.
The Giants are off a four game multi peak performance. We think all the value is with the Dogs expecting a bounce and increase in intensity from recent performances and against superior opponents to recent times. The gut wrenching loss from last years Prelim will be sitting in the stomachs of the Giants players but all factors above has us with the view the value line supports the Dogs.
3 unit Best Bet – Western Bulldogs +20.5
0.5 unit – Western Bulldogs WIN $3.25
Hawthorn v St Kilda
We got the big performance bounce and the win bet at $3.15 Hawthorn last week and the +18.5 turned out to be a gift. Million dollar question is are they now on the turn? We are looking for more than one game to prove this. The Eagles away record is terrible so the Hawks may well have gotten the right oppo to get a win on the board.
St Kilda has not been overly impressive thus far, however, ironically, last weeks loss to Geelong was an improved performance against better opposition. Its like the Saints jumped to the challenge and we are anticipating this happening here against the Hawks. So we are expecting a Saints bounce here on the back of Hawthorns peak last week.
Bet – 1 unit St Kilda +3.5
Carlton v Sydney
Sydney are 0-5 here and lining up for this one and a win. Carlton is off a 90 pt hiding v Port last week. It’s a no bet game as both teams are off negative performances. The line was +40.5 Carlton but is into +29.5…interesting. The Blues were $7 win now $4.60!! Swans fans may be lining up for that and a Buddy bag. But, no bet for us. This has Spiderman senses all over it!!
Brisbane v Port
Interesting game as Brisbane has given Port some curry over time and may fancy themselves here. Lions were very good v Dogs last week and a touch more class and experience they get the win. The caveat of course is how are the Bulldogs going?
Port smashed Carlton in the second half and our view is the catalyst to that was the return of Ryder in the ruck. This allows Trengove to swing back or forward and Dixon to play only deep forward giving Port much more structure. A no bet game as Port coming off a peak performance and Lions covered the line. The money is all with Port, the line out from -26.5 to -33.5 and you can put your $1.16 Port where it belongs thanks very much.
No Bet.
North v Gold Coast
North is winless but really should be 3-2 and has covered the line three of five games and in the process lost three by under a goal. We can only wonder what that has done to the psyche of the North players. The strong argument is North finally wins one here against a semi-fragile Gold Coast side, off a smashing by the top ranked side, Adelaide. North will try and intimidate the young Suns, that’s normal routine for North…always the try on side!
The Suns at their best are pretty good with great skills and plenty of ball carrying capacity. How do you harness this every week and build experience and reliability is pretty much the question. They could implode no doubt. However North must be susceptible here and if the young Suns get it going watch out and that’s our play here with a bounce off the Crows loss. The line for the Suns is out from +12.5 to +15.5 so the value increases.
Bet – 1 unit Gold Coast +14.5
Bet .5 unit Gold Coast win $2.85
West Coast v Fremantle
West Coast off a hiding away from home v Hawks and it is now a chronic problem with this side. Freo had a quite amazing come from behind win over North at home. They were done late in the last quarter but somehow managed to win and have now won three in a row.
We have this as a no bet game. Neither side covered the line last week as North had a +12.5 start v Freo in a five point loss. The obvious play is a West Coast bounce off the hiding and Freo has been up for the last three weeks. Too many guessing games here. The line is 20.5 favouring the Eagles but we will leave this alone.
Essendon v Melbourne
The game is even money and rightly so all things considered. Melbourne was very good v Richmond but faded badly late in the game to go down and lose what looked at one point unlosable. The Dees have lots of talent but no ruckman, a massive problem for a clearance side.
The Bombers did what they had to do v Collingwood and continue to play their uptempo corridor game. We doubt they can defend so can Melbourne score? We think they can here and bounce back for a win. The value has increased, early week -7.5 Melbourne and now are even money. We will take the $1.95 win Melbourne.
Bet – 1 unit Melbourne win $1.95
Geelong v Collingwood
So Bucks position is as follows, “we aren’t far away but we are a million miles away”. I mean WTF does that even mean and what could his players possibly think about that comment? Eddie comes out and supports “our clubs greatest servant”. Player Steele Sidebottom “there is nothing else the Coach can do”. Rest assured, when players come out publicly to support their Coach you are one step away from good-bye. That said, the Pies have not been that bad, they just don’t have a mojo at present. Meanwhile Geelong were super impressive in putting away the Saints last week. Geelong are 5-0, have covered the line four of five games and are on a big three multi game high. They are due for a fall and the circumstances support a Collingwood bounce here on a Geelong comfort zone position. The line has shortened in support of Collingwood from +29.5 early week to +24.5 so there is specking for the Pies. We will take them.
2 unit Strong Bet – Collingwood +25.5
0.5 unit Collingwood win $3.70
Adelaide v Richmond
Adelaide is just in brilliant form and is clearly the No 1 ranked team in the AFL. GWS has more talent but the Crows move the ball beautifully that screams of well practised, well drilled and well coached. The great Phil Walsh legacy albeit short, has been followed by Don Pyke. This is a serious team.
Richmond is greatly improved year on year and the body language from their Coach tells a lot. He was out on the ground post the Anzac Day Eve game victory v Melbourne, smiling it up with his players. Great to see. They have added small forwards to their side that has increased forward pressure, holding the ball in the area and shots on goal. They are greatly improved and on track for a top four finish and a Dustin Martin Brownlow. What a brilliant player. No bullshit, gets the job done.
It’s a no bet game. Both teams have covered the line every game and are off five game multi peak performance streaks. Good for footy…sit back and enjoy. No bet.
