AFL Preliminary Finals 2019

RICHMOND VERSUS GEELONG – FRIDAY NIGHT MCG

Our first AFL Betting Tips Preliminary final shapes as a beauty as we see Richmond take on Geelong at the MCG.

Richmond fell short in this game last year beaten by Collingwood and they were absolutely embarrassed by Geelong before the bye earlier this year to the tune of 67 points. That result likley sat in the guts of the Tigers and it has been fuel to keep their 10 game unbeaten streak going.

Geelong really played to their optimum last week after losing 10 of 13 finals under Chris Scott. The Cats really stood up on the big stage, the question would have to be can they drag themselves again to that level emotionally after what was a tumultuous week leading into the West Coast game.

Hawkins suspension massive loss

The Tom Hawkins suspension really puts the Cats up against it here as he is a leviathan up forward for them with 50 odd goals this year and 4 goals in the big final last week. They will really need to rely on the small forwards to get it done. It was a brain fade of huge proportions for Hawkins and has hurt his team badly.

Midfield guns go head to head

The midfield battle really shapes as a “Group 1” battle, when you have Dangerfield, Kelly, Ablett and Selwood going head to head with Martin Cotchin and Prestia it really is salivating stuff. How Damian Hardwick elects to use Dusty will be crucial to this game, he kicked 6 goals going forward in the first final. That said the same goes for Dangerfield should he be forward as he will at some stage.

Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 against the Cats but no doubt the 10 goal smashing earlier this year at the MCG will be somewhere in their minds. The winner of this game is whoever gets the game played on their terms, Geelong like to control the footy a bit more whereas the Tigers like to crash and bash and scramble it forward.

AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers

Richmond is on a two game peak performance run whilst Geelong had a peak performance last week in its win over West Coast. Richmond has not lost since the mid season bye which is some sort of effort whilst Geelong has been most inconsistent since an 11-1 start pre bye.

Between 2006-2017 Richmond did not beat Geelong and it was 0-13 Geelong’s way. Of the last five head to head clashes we get the nice sample with 5 games in the last 18 months. This year it was a big Geelong win 104-37 at the MCG by 67 points. Prior that Richmond had won 3 in a row that includes a 91-40 win in a final in 2017, Richmond’s premiership year. Of the last 5 head to head the last 4 has been at the MCG with the game prior these at GMHBA Stadium Geelong which was a 80-66 Geelong win.

The average margin between the 2 teams in the last 5 head to head has been 31 points per game. 3 of these have been under 18 points margin with the closest an 85-82 Richmond win in 2018. The other two have been blowout margins with 1 win each.

Total game scores between the 2 in the last 5 games has been average 147 points per game with a tight range of 131-167 points. The bookies have 146.5 points here. Interesting is only once of the last five games has a side kicked over 100 points in a game and the lowest score is the 37 points Richmond this year. Of the last five head to heads Richmond has averaged 73 points per game and Geelong 74 points per game.

Richmond will be stinging from its Preliminary Final loss last year as a raging fav and its unbeaten post bye run is not dislike 2018. Geelong were the best side pre bye and did come home hard against Collingwood 2 weeks ago and won fairly comfortable last week. We will take Geelong here based on the slight differential of the peak runs between the two sides.
Geelong 1 unit +18.5

COLLINGWOOD VERSUS GWS GIANTS – SATURDAY AFTERNOON MCG

Our Second AFL Betting Tips Preliminary final sees Collingwood take on the GWS Giants at the MCG. It’s a case of dejavu as these two sides met in the finals last year with Collingwood disposing of the Giants who were game with the final margin sitting at just 10 points.

The Giants have been pressing in September for four years now and this is their third Preliminary final in four years. The two previous Prelims they have lost and the winners have gone on to be the Premiers (Bulldogs and Richmond).

Giants won 3 of last 4 head to head

The Giants have a good recent record against the Pies winning 3 of their last 4 (the final was the only blip) and they tore Collingwood apart earlier in the year with an 8 goal to 1 first quarter. This will be the sort of intensity they will need to bring in this big game.

Collingwood the fresher side

Collingwood have had the week off and they clearly will be the fresher side. The Brisbane/GWS final was an absolute battle of attrition and you would think it will be physically demanding for the Giants to respond. However there is a line of thinking as well that a tough physical hit out leaves you battled hardened and ready whilst the week off can leave a soft underbelly. When you couple this with the injuries Collingwood have had and the inability to get hard big time footy into those players you wonder whether there is potential for the petrol tickets to run out there as well. This would be the Collingwood risk.

One of the great battles here is going to be the ruck set up. Brodie Grundy is the premier ruckmen in the competition and will know he has played a game against the big Mummy Mumford.

Giants have scoring power

The Giants have the firepower in this game and they are a high octane side when they get rolling. Although Preliminary Finals don’t tend to allow for big time scores, without De Goey at the other end the Pies do look a touch vulnerable in the scoring department. That said the loss of Greene is massive for GWS as a lot of this sides energy and physicality comes via him.

Finals Demons for both sides

Both of these sides have some September demons to address Collingwood with their devastating last gasp loss in the grand final last year and the Giants being bundled out in their last 3 finals series including 2 Preliminary Finals and another mouth watering clash here.

AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers

GWS has won 3 of the last 5 head to head contests including this year round 18 with a 122-75 win in Sydney. Two of the last 5 have been at the MCG where we are here with both games in 2018 and 1-1 apiece. This includes the 2018 Final a 69-59 Collingwood win and both games were tight average 13 points per game.

There has been some high scores kicked between the two with average points per game 184 points with a wide range, 128 at the low end and 218 at the high. The 2 games at the MCG in 2018 averaged 151 points and the bookies have put up 146.5 so this has merit in an investment. The average points per game for each side last 5 head to heads is high, Collingwood 90 and GWS 94 points.

The loss of Whitfield and Greene hurts GWS and this is reflected in the bookies markets with GWS a drifter from +12.5 and $2.60 early week to +21.5 and $3.30. Both teams come here with big extended peak performance runs, Collingwood on a 4 game streak and GWS on a 3 game cover streak. The differential between these two streaks is marginal and as a result we will take GWS but only as a very small investment.
GWS .5 unit +21.5