AFL BETTING TIPS – GRAND FINAL 2019
Well here it is after a MASSIVE AFL Betting Tips Season it all comes down to the last Saturday in September for the AFL Grand Final. We will see who reaches the pinnacle and takes the ultimate glory the AFL Premiership Cup 2019.
Mid year these two teams were in trouble
The story we are going to see unfold on Saturday in the AFL Grand Final is something that was probably inconceivable for many particularly after the injuries Richmond had early in the year (Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt suspension Martin). The mid season collapse of the GWS Giants losing 4 of five and sliding from top 2 contention to struggling to maintain a top 8 spot also had them in trouble. We will literally see history in the making on Saturday as the AFL’s franchise team play off for their first AFL Flag and the Tigers are playing off for their second in 3 years!
Richmond – 11 game win streak since bye
Richmond come into this game with an 11 game winning streak. They are in stunning form and their second half turnaround against the Minor Premier Geelong in the Preliminary Final was an indicator that they have hit their straps. Their health is good and their bigtime recruit Tom Lynch fired when it counted most.
The Giants come into this game on the back of a different path. They almost blew a 33 point lead against the Pies conceding the last 9 scoring shots of the game and fell in scrambling the last few minutes but defending like their lives depended on it.
MCG not a happy GWS hunting ground
The MCG is not a ground that the Giants handle well. If you remove the Preliminary Final victory last weekend they had won 3 of their previous 18 matches at the venue including an embarrassing 6 goal loss to the Hawks earlier this year. They have 27 points to turn around on the Tigers with their meeting in round 17 this year at the MCG.
Key players out
Both sides have had key players ruled out Jack Graham with his dislocated shoulder will not play for Richmond. Stephen Coniglio has not been able to come up and Lachie Whitfield still under a cloud with his appendix removal although he is likely to play. Captain Phil Davis is also banged up but likely to play.
Toby Greene returns from suspension for the Giants and he is a crucial cog to their chances a real barometer of the Giants. He is their heartbeat and in a year where they have had many weeks without key members of their leadership group he has stood tall when it counted.
Tigers AFL Flag fav’s
It will be interesting to see how Richmond handle the tag of the Premiership favourite on Grand Final Day. When they dismantled the Crows in 2017 they heavily concentrated their efforts on being the “underdog” with nothing to lose. They had their “away” strip and they were comfortable being the hunter. The shoe is on the other foot here and if there is one thing the Giants are familiar with it’s the underdog tag. Note also last year Richmond falling as a hot hot Prelim Final fav.
Dusty v De Boer a key battle
Matt De Boer is such a crucial part of this game for GWS and his job on Dusty Martin earlier in the year caused Dusty to lash out and get suspended. In the last 3 weeks of finals he has held Bontempelli to 13, Neale to 17 and Pendlebury to 18. It is 3 of the great weeks of defensive finals footy you would think if he holds Martin to similar through the midfield then the Giants are a strong chance. Mind you Dusty simply goes forward and kicks goal as his “get out of jail”.
Lynch and Cameron are key forward’s
Richmond ooze class and the addition of Tom Lynch to the forward line adds another key that the Tigers can rely on in the heat of Grand Final day. A bail out kick going forward particularly with the way Richmond play in their crash and bash style can be worth its weight in gold. The same is said of Jeremy Cameron just as dangerous at the other end of the ground for GWS.
Betting Tips AFL Grand Final 2019 – the key numbers
We get the nice sample here with 5 games in the last two years head to head including the 2017 Prelim Final. Richmond has won 3 and GWS 2 of the last 5 head to head contests. This includes 2 games this year, round 17 a 94-67 Richmond win at the MCG and Rd 3 a 125-76 GWS win in Sydney. Of the last 5 head to head 3 games have been at the MCG all Richmond wins and the 2 GWS wins have been in Sydney.
The average winning margin between the 2 sides of the last 5 head to head clashes has been 27 points. The closest in 2018 a 79-77 GWS win at Spotless and the largest also a GWS win 125-76 in Sydney this year. Total game score average between the 2 sides last 5 clashes is 160 points with a range of 109 points in 2017 and 201 points this year. So a near 100 point turn differential in this range.
In the race to the Grand Final, Richmond has beaten Geelong and Brisbane in going straight through after finishing second. They also beat Brisbane in the last home and away game and finals side West Coast by 6 points in the second last home and away game. Average points for these games were 92 points and against 67 points.
In this same period GWS has played the 3 finals after finishing sixth and has beaten Collingwood and Brisbane by 4 and 3 points in nailbiters and prior big wins over Bulldogs in the first final and smashed Gold Coast in the last home and away game. They have kicked 85 points in their 3 finals and 62 points against reaffirming how strong their defense has been.
GWS comes here on a 4 game peak performance run and has used up so much emotional energy in its last two nailbiting wins. Richmond is on a 3 game peak run and we will take Richmond here as a small bet given the extra game peak run of GWS.
RICHMOND .5 UNIT WIN $1.40 AND .5 UNIT -17.5
Exotic Bets:
TOM LYNCH FIRST GOAL $7.50
JOSH KELLY NORM SMITH MEDAL $15
TOM LYNCH FIRST GOAL/JOSH KELLY NORM SMITH COMBO $113
DANIEL RIOLI FIRST GOAL SAVE BET $21
GWS 1st TEAM TO 25 POINTS $2.46