Carlton v Melbourne
It’s a real bottom of the barrel clash to get our AFL Betting Tips Sunday matches underway as Carlton take on Melbourne. It’s a clash of 16 versus 17and that is hardly a salivating contest.
Carlton will be buoyed by their come from behind win in the West last week with no Cripps and Curnow and it will give them some real belief. You just wonder if they will be able to back up the effort last week as no doubt they celebrated that win as they have been few and far between. Melbourne played 3 good quarters against Brisbane but was destroyed in 20 minutes of footy. It’s still hard to comprehend that Melbourne find themselves where they are. One thing is for sure if they lose this the burner must be turned up on the Demons.
and the numbers…
Melbourne has won the last 3 head to head after Carlton had won the 2 prior. Last year it was a whopping 159-50 Melbourne win but this is not the same Melbourne side (it may be personnel wise but not performance). All of the recent games have been at the MCG where we are here. Last years 209 point game broke the norm as recent average total game scores have been about 145 points per game. Carlton comes here on a triple peak performance run with drastic improvement since the change of coach. Melbourne comes off the average performance and loss against Brisbane last week. Given the triple game run of Carlton we will take Melbourne here looking to a bounce.
Melbourne 1.5 unit win $1.43 and .5 unit -17.5
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Our Sunday afternoon AFL Betting Tips clash sees the in form North Melbourne tackle the under pressure St Kilda.
North Melbourne was brutal in their destruction of the top two Magpies last week and under Rhyce Shaw the Kangaroos have gone 3-1. The question will be do they have the capability to back up a peak performance effort and get it done again. St Kilda on the other hand are really a side under immense pressure. The Saints have now lost 3 of their last 4 but the concerning aspect is their in and out nature of the contest.
They are regularly beaten in a quarter of footy and seem to have an inability to halt the wave when the scoring comes. The aspect to weigh up is the Roos are on a peak performance run and you wonder whether they can continue to uphold this.
And the numbers
This game is in Tasmania at Blundstone where North has been strong but this year are 0-2. The last five contests have all been at Marvel where North is 3-2 of these games. Last year it was 117-94 in a high scoring game North win and this is 1 of 2 games of the last five that has been over 200 points. St Kilda won in 2017 127-78 in another high scoring contest. Three games of the last five have had an average winning margin of 23 points with the other two games beltings. North comes here on a double game peak performance run under new Coach Shaw and we look to the St Kilda bounce here.
St Kilda 1.5 unit +23.5 and .5 unit win $3.60
GWS v Brisbane
A real match of the round game in our AFL Betting Tips Sunday twilight game sees 4th versus 5th as the GWS Giants host the Brisbane Lions.
The Giants have been a real high octane side at home and they are unbeaten at Giants Stadium this year and have averaged 125 points in the process. That’s going to mean the Lions have a real job ahead to contain this offensive juggernaut.
This becomes another test for Brisbane on the road to frank their September worthiness. They were completely dominant against the Demons but this is another step up here. The Lions have got rolling again and are looking for 3 wins in a row.
The Giants on the other hand will be smarting after their shock loss at the hands of the Bombers and will be looking for redemption. This is the sort of game they need to respond and get back to their normal tough edge if they are to get themselves into a position for a home AFL final.
and the numbers
GWS has a 6-2 win/loss record against Brisbane since entering the AFL. Both teams are 3-2 last five weeks in AFL and GWS has won the last five head to head. Two of the last five games has been at GWS whilst the other three at Gabba. Scores are contrasting from the venues with the Gabba games high scoring but the GWS games low. The two games here have been average 132 points per game whilst the Gabba has been 212 points per game. The closest margin of the last five has been 27 points so games have not been especially close.
Brisbane comes here on a double game peak performance run and GWS off the tight Essendon loss. We look to the GWS bounce here and we will take them.
GWS 1.5 unit win $1.40 and .5 unit -18.5