AFL Betting Tips – Essendon v Sydney
The early Saturday game in our AFL Betting Tips sees Essendon attempt to drag themselves closer to a September dream as they host the Sydney Swans. The Swans are on an unprecedented 7 game cover run and makes them highly vulnerable from a betting perspective. That said there form is very good.
Essendon really toughed it out against the much more fancied GWS last week. The last time these two sides met was the edition of “Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon” Rampe doing some kung fu style pole climbing!!!
Sydney have to be vulnerable on some level given the run of positive performances against expectation and at some point you would expect them to revert to the mean. That said they are a heavily structured and a well coached side. If the Bombers get the game on the outside they can blow Sydney away.
and the numbers
Sydney has dominated Essendon in recent time winning four of the last five head to head. In round 8 this year it was a tight lack lustre 77-72 Sydney win at the SCG which goes with the other recent tight game of 2017 Sydney 86-85 by a point. If you ever want to see a team throw away a game have a look at this one on You Tube! The other three recent head to head games have been one sided. Four of the last five games have been at the SCG and we turn up to the MCG where they have not met for a very long time.
Whilst both teams had strong wins last week, Sydney is on a massive peak performance run and we just have to take Essendon here as a best bet.
Essendon 2 units win $1.55 and 1 unit -11.5
Gold Coast v Richmond
It very much looks a one sided match in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday afternoon game as the Gold Coast Suns host Richmond.
The Suns are on a 10 game losing streak and after promising some real improvement in the opening month of footy they really have dropped off a cliff. It is made no easier that they are taking on Richmond in a week where Hardwick has declared “our season starts now” referring to the Tigers getting some players back.
Richmond really are able to make a late charge to September and they have been a terrific travelling side this season so there is not a lot of positives for the Suns. The argument could be made that they have been so bad and at some point they must turn things around and at home would possibly be their best opportunity to do this.
And the numbers
The Gold Coast has generally performed ok against Richmond with a 3-5 win/loss record. That said, Richmond has won the last four head to head and the last Suns win was 87-69 in 2014 at Metricon. Last year it was a 125-51 win by Richmond at Metricon where three of the last five head to head have been. Two whopping Richmond wins are flanked by an average win margin of 22 points per game of the last five versus each other. Total game scores last five has been 181 points per game and we get 148.5 here from the bookies.
We are going to take Gold Coast here as a small play looking to a performance bounce on the back of the Richmond peak last week.
Gold Coast Suns 1 unit +29.5 and .5 unit win $4.50
Adelaide v Port Adelaide
The Showdown shapes as one of the matches of the round in our AFL Betting Tips round 16.
These sides are separated by just one win on the ladder (Adelaide 6thPort Adelaide 9th) so this is a classic “8 point game” and there will be no holds barred here!!! Adelaide were good for a half last week against the Cats, but when beaten around the contest they totally lacked the leg speed to go with the Cats. The well fancied Port Adelaide were horrendous against the Western Bulldogs after only a week earlier beating the league leading Cats in comprehensive fashion (except the scoreboard). It was typical Port Adelaide as they are forever playing “yoyo” footy, one week up one week down.
The centre square is where this game will be decided as Port was disgraceful and unless they bring some hardness back they will get smacked. However if they bring the Port Adelaide that played Geelong just 2 weeks ago then the smacking could be the other way!! It’s a big game.
And the numbers…
Adelaide has dominated recent Showdowns winning 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10. All of these games of course have been at Adelaide Oval. We get the strong sample as they play each other twice a year and Rd 8 this year was 88-68 Crows. There has been one blowout of the last five head to head but the other four are tight with an average margin of 11 points per game. Last year the two games were 3 and 5 point margins, one to Port and one to Adelaide.
Given the positions on the ladder it is hard to see this not being tight. It is a no bet game for us as both teams underperformed last week neutralising each other from a betting perspective. The line is -6.5 Adelaide and the 1-39 pt margin is $2.30 Crows and $2.80 Port. It is hard to see the game blowing out so we would take 1-39 your favoured side but for us it is a no bet and watch only.
Bulldogs v Geelong
The Bulldogs host Geelong at Marvel in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday night clash. The Western Bulldogs were huge last week taking care of Port Adelaide on the road and it was just reward for some real hard work in the month prior where they were solid in being beaten. They were tough and uncompromising in atrocious conditions with Bontempelli producing one of the all time great games in the wet. However the question has to be asked can the Bulldogs reproduce another peak performance effort on the back of last week.
Geelong were able to bounce back from their shock defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide two weeks ago and comfortably account for Adelaide at the Cattery last week. On paper you would expect the Cats to account for the opposition here however the “fly in the ointment” for the Cats could be the venue if the Dogs are going to have a peak effort it will be at this ground.
And the numbers
Geelong has dominated the Bulldogs of recent times winning 4 of the last 5. This includes Rd 9 this year with a 133-89 win at GMHBA Geelong’s home ground. Two of the last five head to head has been at Marvel where we are here and its 1-1 to each side. One of these was the tightest of recent clashes which is a 103-101 high scoring 2 point win to the Dogs in 2018. The balance of the last five games has not been blowouts as such but “comfortable” Geelong wins. What we do note is that Geelong has been able to kick over 100 points in each of these games, Total game scores of the last five is a high 187 points per game and we get 166.5 here from the bookies.
Bulldogs are on a double peak performance run and Geelong a single peak and we will take Geelong here in a small investment.
Geelong 1 unit win $1.30 and .5 unit -22.5
Fremantle v West Coast
Our AFL Betting Tips game from the West is the local Derby. West Coast have had absolute dominance over their cross town rival in recent times with a 9 game winning streak against the Dockers. This will be a Dockers home crowd the first time they have had a chance to antagonise Gaff for his hit on Brayshaw late last year.
Fremantle were a shadow of their former selves beaten at home by the languishing Carlton last week. They will need a big response to stop the Derby run of the Eagles. However projecting back to the match this year Fremantle were the better team but inefficiency going forward was very costly. But it will give them true belief they can get the job done.
The Eagles were able to win ugly last week at the MCG against the Hawks but they will need more than that here in what is likely to be a highly physical encounter. The big query for the Dockers will be around their ability to get midfield ascendancy with a real lack of big man.
and the numbers
Big West Coast numbers here as earlier mentioned they have dominated recent games between the two. Of the last five head to head it is all West Coast with the wins generally comfortable. We have had two recent tight ones this year in Rd 4 a low scoring 69-55 West Coast win and last year 89-81 Eagles. The second game of 2018 was a high 142-84 Eagles win but apart from that they are generally low scoring with the other four games average 144 points per game.
Like the Adelaide Showdown this is a no bet game as both teams under performed to the line last week despite the West Coast win. No bet here but worth watching.