AFL Betting Tips – Saturday
Hawthorn v West Coast
The early Saturday game in the AFL Betting Tips sees Hawthorn take on the West Coast Eagles at the MCG. There doesn’t look to be too many tricks left for Clarko. He has axed senior players and bought them back, thrown defenders forward and vice versa. The truth will hit home now, the season is done and they are a long way off a serious challenger.
West Coast really dominated Essendon last week and kicked 14.22. It was a convincing home performance and the Eagles would be hoping that win launches the second half of the season for them. One thing is for sure in this game and that is Clarkson will come armed with something to try and conjure a result in this match.
…and the numbers
Hawthorn is 3-2 head to head in the last five years. Last year it was West Coast 75-60 in a low scoring game and the year prior the opposite, a high scoring 125-75 win at the MCG. We are at the MCG here which is where three of the last five head to heads have been. The average game scores between the two last five has been 163 points per game, take the 200 point game out brings it to 153 points. We get 144.5 total points from the bookies here and is worth a look.
The last game at Marvel was the closest of the last five with 15 point difference. Games have not been especially close and include the 2015 107-61 Hawthorn win. West Coast comes off the peak performance cover and we look for a Hawthorn bounce off last weeks poor loss.
Hawthorn 1 unit +9.5 and .5 unit win $2.30
Sydney v Gold Coast
Sydney host the Suns in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday arvo game.
The Swans are a revitalised side and are really tracking in the right direction. They tore apart the defending premiers two games back and followed up with a comprehensive win over the Hawks. After winning 3 of their first 4 games the Suns have then proceeded to go on a 9 game losing streak and there have been some blowouts in those margins as well. The Suns did cause one of the big upsets of 2018 knocking of Sydney at the SCG by 4 goals last year. Sydney lose Buddy and this is despite being on a massive 6 game peak performance run, the longest cover sequence of the 2019 AFL Betting Tips season.
…and the numbers
Of the last five head to head Gold Coast caused the bug 88-64 upset last year but it was Sydney the four games prior. They really have been very much one way margins to Sydney with large wins. The total game score average has been 157 points per game and the bookies here are 160.5. The big problem here is the Gold Coast inability to score and they have only scored 57 points per game against the Swans. That won’t be enough to win here and they rank 18 points for this year and Sydney rank 12.
The Sydney peak performance run for the Swans has extended a very long period and does make them vulnerable here and we will take the Suns as a best bet.
Gold Coast 2.5 unit +36.5 and .75 unit win $6.00
Collingwood v North
The first of our AFL Betting Tips Saturday night games sees Collingwood taking on the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos have really struggled against the Pies beaten by almost 10 goals at both the last 2 efforts. They won 3 of their 4 before the break (losing to GWS) in an improved performance. On the other side of the fence the Magpies are still trying to find their game, and that will be a big focus of this match
…and the numbers
These two have scored some very high scores with the last four head to head average 194 points per game. The winning team has kicked well north of 100+ points per game and this has shoot out written all over it. It is a no bet game given neither side covered the line last game but the total game score of over 165.5 does appeal. No bet game but consider the over total game score.
Port Adelaide v Bulldogs
Port Adelaide host the Bulldogs in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday Night game.
Port Adelaide has stormed back into the 8 with a gutsy win over the league leading Geelong last week. It was the grunt and physical pressure that was most impressive about this game, with Dixon, Wines and co in the side and Port walking a little taller. It is their second week in a row at home so that’s a plus.
The Bulldogs are one of the better 5 win 8 loss sides in the AFL. It is hard to question their effort but the execution has been the problem. This game has the potential to be a lot closer than a lot of people think, particularly given the Port Adelaide aversion to performing against expectation. We are of the view that Port had everything going right for them last week. The Bulldogs may just bring something here for Port Adelaide to think about.
…and the numbers
Port has won the last three head to head v Bulldogs of which two were in Ballarat and one at Adelaide Oval. We are at Adelaide Oval here and the closest of the last five head to head was here as well in a 100-97 Dogs win in Bulldogs 2016 premiership year. Apart from last years Ballarat game, the total game scores have been very high and an average of 177 points per game. We get 145.5 from the bookies here and this has appeal. Three of the five have been over 190 points total including a 207 points per game in 2018. Both teams come off big peak performance covers last week making this a no bet game as both void each other as a bet. One of the most interesting thing out of this game is how Port bounce off a big peak.