AFL Betting Tips – 10 bets 7 wins at 70% strike rate
AFL Betting Tipsround 14 was another strong profit round as we complete the three weeks of the AFL bye rounds. Our Expert AFL Betting Tips utilising our analysis strategy of the Human Behaviour Model was at its best on the AFL Round 14 weekend. Excellent AFL Bettingresults came out of the weekend with 10 bets and 7 winners coming home for subscribers:
AFL BETTING TIPS – ROUND 14 RESULTS:
WEST COAST 1.5 unit win $1.35 WIN
WEST COAST .5 unit -18.5 WIN
MELBOURNE 1.5 unit win $1.75 WIN
MELBOURNE .5 unit -4.5 WIN
PORT ADELAIDE .5 unit win $2.60 WIN
PORT ADELAIDE 1 unit +14.5 WIN
WESTERN BULLDOGS 1 unit +24.5 WIN
EAGLES DOMINATE AS BOMBERS BLOW IT
The Eagles have come off their bye roaring with a comprehensive smashing of the Bombers in the AFL Betting Tips opener to Round 14. It was a good start to the AFL Betting weekend with West Coast a $1.35 and -18.5 bet for us.
As we predicted the Bombers were vulnerable coming off a double peak performance and being on the road against a very hungry Eagles who were off a sub par effort.
The final margin of 35 points is in no way a reflection of the dominance the Eagles had over the Bombers with 36 scoring shots to 16. West Coast were wasteful in front of goal (14.22).
Essendon could generate no flow and they were absolutely smashed. The Eagles blew the game open in Q2 with 22 inside 50s to 4 but only managed a 3.10 return!! It was a big performance bounce for the Eagles who were destroyed by the Swans before the break. Simpson wielded the axe dropping 4 players and seemed to sting the rest of the group into action. Essendon look shot to us, they cannot score which was there major strength. They were weak and Essendon Caoch Worsfold is not getting the best from this group. Trouble looming and they showed little fight and its not the first time this year!
BUDDY DOES HAMMY BUT SWANS CONTINUE TO BLOOM
The Swans resurgence continued in our AFL Betting Tips Friday night clash against the Hawks.
It was soured though by big time Buddy doing his Hammy for the second time this season and stuck on 299 games. Sydney were switched on and ready to go after their bye they came out breathing fire with a 6 goal opening term. The 18 point Q1 margin was pretty much the end result!
Clarkson had tried one last trick with his troops recalling Jaryd Roughhead and swinging key defender Sicily forward. The Hawks haven’t kicked over 80 points since Round 6 a real issue for them going forward.
John Longmire is doing a fantastic job with this Sydney outfit and the Swans would want to be quick to increase his contracts terms as the Kangaroos are circling. Sydney have really been able to revert to some of the “bloods” style dour play and its serving them well and they continue on an unrivalled peak performance run. For Hawthorn it is early draft picks for them as the season is shot.
DEMONS SNAP 4 GAME LOSING STREAK
The Demons were back in the winners circle in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday afternoon game. We were right on the money with our Human Behaviour Model with Fremantle on the back of a two game peak performance run and Melbourne were due to bounce giving us both the win bet and the line cover. Melbourne was screaming out for the mid season break and they needed badly to reset and get a focus for the back half end of the year.
Even though the MCG was the venue of this match Optus Stadium will again come under a searching investigation for the hardness under foot. Freo had refused to train there from 11th June due to the extended lower leg injuries to their team which included Rory Lobb (foot soreness) Alex Pearce (Ankle) Matt Tebrner (foot) and then they lost Jesse Hogan (navicular) early in the game on the weekend.
These are all overuse on incorrect surface style of injuries and when you couple it with the Eagles Elliot Yeo (toe), Jamie Cripps (toe) Jack Redden (achilles) Trent Barrass (Foot) there needs to be a complete overhaul of the Perth Stadium. It would appear to be a problem and the AFL needs to fix this. How Freo function going forward with no Jesse Hogan will be crucial as they are only percentage clear in the AFL final 8. Melboure is looking for an effort in the back half of the year.
BRISBANE WIN AS SAINTS SHOW NO SOUL
Brisbane have consolidated their position inside the AFL top 8 as they go to 8-5 a game clear in sixth spot.
Brisbane turned it on against the Saints and in doing so chalked up their first win in 19 years at Marvel against St Kilda. They had lost the previous 8 clashes there by an average of 5 goals and their only win in their very first encounter there back in 2000.
St Kilda Coach Alan Richardson will further come under the pump post this game. They drifted to 6-7 win loss but it was the total lack of heart and soul that was the big concern, Saints fans leaving Marvel in droves at 3 quarter time.
This was a big win for Brisbane it was only their second win on the road (the other Nth Melb round 2). This is after leading and being run over the top in away games against Freo, Carlton and Western Bulldogs. Brisbane are on the up and St Kilda look in real trouble.
PORT IN POWERFUL WIN OVER THE LEAGUE LEADING GEELONG
Port Adelaide Coach Hinkley wielded the axe in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday Night clash. He dropped big names Ryder, Westhoff and Powell Pepper and got immediate results.
It was a big AFL Betting win for us as we took the +14.5 and $2.60 pre game on Port who duly delivered. Our Human Behaviour model correctly predicted the Cats for a lull in effort off a massive peak performance spike against the Tigers before the break and Port Adelaide to bounce off the sub par effort in the West last week
The sheer desire of the group to compete was enormous and they were back to the “blue collar” Port of old. It was tough uncompromising footy and the Cats were rattled.
The problem is we have seen this before in Port as they are prone to massive over performance against top sides. This results in being followed by a poor performance. Coach Hinkley coming out and stating “we can beat any side” does not need to be said. To us its boasting and will put the players in a position where they believe they are something they are not. That is blue chip as against blue collar.
We think simply Port got Geelong at the right time. Geelong’s record post bye is simply atrocious and all the conditions suited Port. It is Human Behaviour modelling at its best and we will see where this takes Port. But buyer beware!
PIES NOT AT BEST BUT DOWN DOGS
In the AFL Betting Sunday game Nathan Buckley declared his sides 9 point win over Western Bulldogs as one of the worst performances from his side for the year. Once again our Human Behaviour Model was to the fore correctly picking Collingwood to slide on the back of their peak performance cover versus Melbourne on Queens Birthday. We expected the Bulldogs to lift on the back of not covering against the Blues last game despite a win.
These two sides played a monster game earlier in the year at the MCG, the Dogs pushing the Pies all the way. This one was not of the same quality but the result was identical, Collingwood running out slender winners.
Collingwood move to a game and percentage behind the Cats and with North and the Hawks in the next couple of weeks. They can really start getting the momentum rolling. The Bulldogs were just more of the same, hard industrious and lacking polish.
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