AFL Betting Tips – Round 10 another profit round
AFL Betting Tips was another winning week for subscribers with excellent results. Our line bets were a win/loss strike rate of 4-2 and the win bets were 3-2. Total bets were a win/loss strike rate were 7-4 at a 64% for a profitable AFL Betting Tips Round 10. Winning AFL Bets and key results were as follows:
AFL Line Bets 4-2 strike rate at 66%
AFL Line Bets unit outlay 6.75 unit outlay for 9 unit return
AFL Win Bets 3-2 at 60% strike rate
Profit on Turnover 42%
Winning AFL Bets from round 10 were:
Collingwood .75 unit $1.50 win – WIN
Hawthorn 1 unit win $1.78 and .5 unit -3.5 line – WIN
West Coast 1.5 unit +9.5 line and .5 unit win $2.30 – WIN
Gold Coast 1 unit +33.5 line – WIN
Brisbane 1.5 unit +4.5 line – WIN
Game by game review of AFL Betting Tips Round 10 games:
COLLINGWOOD MAKE IT 7 IN A ROW
It was a dominant big man performance by Brodie Grundy in the AFL Betting Tips Friday night game Sydney versus Collingwood and we gained a result with our AFL Tip Collingwood win $1.50.
Grundy simply controlled the aerial contests and ground level dominance of the ruck position gave his mid’s a big advantage. Grundy is simply by far the best ruckman in the AFL and Collingwood will throw the cheque book to him and Adelaide will not! Hence he will remain a Magpie.
Sydney were giving their all as the young rejuvenated side had their star Buddy back. Sam Reid with a 6 goal haul was super dominant for them and the star of the game.
Collingwood has the Dockers and Demons leading into their break with two important matches to keep the gap in the AFL top two.
PORT POOR AS THE HAWKS DOMINATE IN TASSIE
The AFL Betting Tips early Saturday game from Tassie saw Port Adelaide’s terrible starts cost them again. They failed to score ANYTHING until midway through the second term.
Ken Hinkley’s almost dismissiveness of his sides starts “we were in a nil all draw almost for the rest of the game and we are like a lot of other sides just struggling with various stages of the game”. Ken you shouldn’t be worrying about what other sides are doing and focus on your own and why they aren’t starting well!!
The Hawks on the other hand under the guidance of Clarko are attempting to build some momentum. A stunning 6 goal game by Gunston was key and the Hawks kept their Tassie dominance rolling (winning 33 of past 37).
As we forecast Hawthorn were able to bounce and cover the line bet for subscribers and the win bet to boot a nice result. The reason that Clarkson is a master is because he understands what players he has at his disposal. He can then shape a game plan around them rather than creating a game plan in his mind and then trying to match the talent to it. In summary both Hawthorn and Port are classic HBM Human Behaviour Model sides in that they bounce one week then underperform the next.
KANGAS SAY GOODBYE TO SCOTT
It was a very different energy at Marvel Stadium for the Saturday AFL Betting Tips battle between the Bulldogs and North Melbourne. It appeared this was to be the last game for Kangaroos senior coach Brad Scott, describing his side as “agitated” in the pre game meeting. It certainly didn’t affect their ability to contend as they were in full control of the game early.
The Bulldogs were struggling to get their game going, mostly due to the Kangaroos getting their hands on the ball. They showed glimpses but were inconsistent.
North Melbourne in some way paying tribute to Brad Scott with this result with the man that many of these men owe their AFL careers to. He has been a decade at the club and as it turns out his future was somewhat sealed a few weeks ago when he presented to the Board and in that presentation he offered to stand down as the senior coach for North Melbourne. This allowed North to head in a more “strategic direction” and it took the Board another month to make the call. On Friday he was summoned and the deal was done it was described as “mutual”. All pretty shabby amateur hour if you ask us. Brad Scott will be somewhere coaching in 2020.
WHAT TO MAKE OF THE ADELAIDE CROWS
The AFL Betting Tips Saturday twilight match between Adelaide and West Coast was arguably the match of the round on paper. It was 6th vs 7th and a big game in the context of both clubs seasons.
We really liked the Eagles to bring a peak performance effort off their no line cover the previous week and they were an AFL Betting Tips 1 unit bet at +9.5 and $2.30 win for subscribers. Adelaide who had had a previous two peak line cover and some injuries/illness further reinforced our position.
Adelaide Crows disaster game
Early in the third quarter it looked like game over. Adelaide led by 33 points and were travelling beautifully. Then the disaster hit and before we knew it a run of West Coast goals made it a 9 point three quarter time game.
West Coast 10 goal to 2 goals from early Q3
West Coast kicked an amazing 10 goals to Adelaide 2 goals from early in the third quarter. This is a run of goals not often seen in the AFL. Certainly it brings into question the recent defensive prowess of Adelaide Crows and its abilities to defend. They went out the window here and the critics are coming down hard on Adelaide.
Where was the Crows run with tagger
When an opposition player gets a run on, the best defensive sides send a run with player to him to slow them down. Andrew Gaff’s 3rdquarter was stuff of legend as he carved up at will with 14 disposals and amazingly Adelaide at no time ran closely with him.
With everything to play for Adelaide wilted and yet again Gaff was able to run free. Shuey joined the party and Kennedy was dead eye dick as the Eagles put the Crows away with 5 goal to 1 last quarter leaving big issues for Adelaide who are now 5-5 and right back in the ruck.
The $1 million men on the boundary
It depends who you talk to, Bryce Gibbs and Josh Jenkins are on a $1 million plus per season between them. And where are Gibbs and Jenkins playing…you guessed it the SANFL. Whilst neither of these two are necessarily the reason that this game was won or lost, it is symptomatic of the confusing status of this side under Don Pyke. How two such talented players can be wallowing week and week in the SANFL is both confusing and fascinating. How much you want to lay that they are picked this week in an about face?
West Coast 7-3 and on the up, Adelaide 5-5 going where??
The concern for Adelaide in the last couple of weeks is they have leaked defensively at key moments in the game very much a departure from the defensive grind that gave them a 4-0 run. The Eagles on the other hand really hit their straps and were good for 3 of the 4 quarters. The top line performance of West Coast came to fruition here and at 7-3 they are contenders about to challenge Geelong and Collingwood.
as for Adelaide at 5-5 and with Melbourne at the MCG this week comes as a crunch game. The AFL football world is watching the Crows and the heat is on Pyke, Tex Walker and his players and they know it!
CATS TAKE CARE OF THE SUNS
Saturday night AFL Betting Tips game was from the Gold Coast with Geelong taking on the Gold Coast Suns.
As we predicted to subscribers the Gold Coast were able to have enough of a “bounce” to cover the 33.5 point line margin. In the end the class of Geelong took them home for their 9th win of the season.
Yet again the Suns were able to be competitive as they were last week for 3 quarters but as last week they were again held goal less in the final term. You have to admire and admonish them at the same time. They are obviously a young team in transition but they will not want to make the mistake of “close enough is good enough”.
They appear well coached with Dew and Francou at the helm “admirable losses” will not be accepted.
Tim Kelly really stood up again with 35 touches and the big key forward the “Tomahawk” had 7 shots at goal for a 4-3 return. Kelly is a star and the Cats will be anxious to retain this young star, just as the Eagles and Dockers will want him back in Perth. Geelong does look very strong however Chris Scott is not letting the cart get before the horse. ”My old coach Leigh Matthews used to say this is the qualification stage and if you get too happy where you at after round 10 you can get a rude shock when it really counts”.
The other big story out of the game is that Gary Ablett will come under scrutiny with the Match Review Officer. For the 3rd time in a month after punch to the jaw of a competitor, Gazza gets a month. Now there is the week break the Cats were looking for their 35 year old star.
TIGERS ROAR ESSENDON CAN’T RESPOND
The AFL Betting Tips “Dreamtime at the G” was a picture of Richmond belting Essendon. It was a wet night for the big clash, and the Tigers were clearly the best to adapt to conditions. Most impressive was their dominant opening to the game was the pace of their sweeping ball movement. The ferocious small forwards (Rioli, Bolton, Baker, Castagnga, Higgins) are jets. Their ability to be evasive and competitive in the wet saw them hit the scoreboard with 7 goals and amassed 21 tackles between them.
The Bombers looked top heavy for the conditions, and really struggled for scoring power. They now sit 4-6 and for a season that was full of promise on the back of their storming run home in 2018. They would want to take care of the Blues next week before their bye or it will be looking sick. A loss to them will see the Bombers coaching job become fair game and Woosha looking for another job or retirement.
The Tigers are at the other end of the spectrum as they have won 6 of their last 7 and are playing such team cohesion footy.
DEMONS TERRIBLE AS GIANTS OUTGUN THEM
The Demons season if it had any heart beat left was totally on the line in our AFL Betting Tips early Sunday game and they couldn’t have put on a worse display. The margin ended up at only 26 points as the Demons had a 7 goal to 1 run in the last part of the game.
But when the game was on the line the Demons could no have been any more impotent. It was a big tick for the Giants who were looking to rectify their 2-14 record at the MCG.
It was interesting to hear the tone of both coaches post game and perhaps its partly the reason both sides are where they are after the win Leon Cameron was more worried about giving up a 50 odd point lead to get home by 26 points and he was pressing the point there is more to do-remember this was the winning side, on the flip of this instead of labelling his sides effort as unacceptable when they were sub AFL level in the first almost 3 quarters Simon Goodwin elected to focus on the sides ability to “stay connected and to fight back”.
Go figure Goody!! GWS headed for a top 4 finish and Melbourne to miss the 8.
38 LOSSES AND 4 WINS FOR CARLTON…BOLTON ON KNIFE EDGE
It wasn’t one for the highlights reel but the Saints were able to do enough to get themselves over the line against the lacklustre Carlton. The Blues have now lost 9 of their last 10 and only won 4 of their last 42 under Bolton. Surely the numbers are too far stacked against him for him to be continuing in a senior coach capacity.
This Carlton effort was on the back of an embarrassing 93 point thumping at the hands of the GWS the week prior. The players and coaching staff are so far down the hole they actually don’t know which way is out. This will not continue for much longer as Bolton is sure to be gone soon.
The Saints were able to snap a 4 game losing streak and after a great start to the year and then some real injury concerns they have enabled themselves to keep contact with the top 8 (percentage out). The Saints travel to China to take on Port next week and it will be an all new experience for this team and Ports third season travelling there. Surely this is a 50/50 contest.
DOCKERS SCRAMBLE HOME AFTER SIREN
Scores level siren sounds and Walters has it 45 out on a 45 degree angle. He launches a long ball and hits the post for a Dockers win.
The Lions had a question mark next to their travelling form this year and despite the loss this effort was a big tick in that department. We predicted the Lions were able to bring an effort and energy to cover the betting line and a 1.5 unit +4.5 AFL Betting Tips result for subscribers.
Lachie Neale was solid returning against his old side although was probably outpointed by the Docker skipper Nat Fyfe. One area Brisbane will continue to work on is set shot goalkicking as for the 3rdweek in a row it was an issue missing easy crucial shots. Fremantle will need to bring there A game with Collingwood next week before their bye. Brisbane will look to the immediate bounce over Hawthorn at home.
You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
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