AFL Betting Tips – Line Bets Round 7 and 8 at 100% strike rate
It has been a superb fortnight in AFL Betting Tips for subscribers in all betting forms at iTipsports. In particular our Expert AFL Betting Tips with our Human Behaviour Model has been in great form with our line bets. We have taken advantage of some excellent AFL Betting options to deliver 10 Line Bets and 10 Winners in the last fortnight in AFL Betting Tips Round’s 7 and 8 and here are our results.
AFL Betting Tips Line last fortnight -10 bets and 10 wins
AFL Betting Tips – Round 7 Line Bets
* Richmond 2 units +8.5 – WIN
* Hawthorn 1 unit +12.5 – WIN
* North Melbourne 1 unit +24.5 – WIN
* Bulldogs .5 unit -4.5 – WIN
* Carlton 1 unit +39.5 – WIN
AFL Betting Tips – Round 8 Line Bets
* Melbourne .75 unit +22.5 – WIN
* Port Adelaide 1 unit -37.5 – WIN
* GWS .5 unit -37.5 – WIN
* Geelong .5 unit -33.5 – WIN
* Sydney .75 unit +14.5 – WIN
What is the Human Behaviour Model?
You can read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model that we apply to team sports athttps://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
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AFL Betting Tips – the history of Line Betting
Called “Spread Betting” in the United States, Line betting has become a very popular method for punters to invest in Australia. Line betting was the brainchild of a Maths professor Charles K McNiel who was a Masters Professor who taught at Riverdale Country School in Conneticut. Counting John F Kennedy as a student, he also gambled on the side and he opened his own bookmaking firm in the 1940s. With his line betting theory he changed the way people bet.
Line betting is when the Market Makers allocate a numerical “points” advantage. This is sometimes referred to as a “handicap” in order to level the sides up in a two horse race to make the proposed outcome a 50/50 bet.
The reason for this is to generate betting volume and McNeil knew that it is “opinion” that drives the gambler to invest. They want to back their judgement, he just gave them a more compelling way to attack matches and to back their judgement and more importantly he created something that was unheard of.
AFL Betting Tips – Back the Loser and WIN!!!
You could now back the loser AND win. Betting volumes went through the roof as bookies took up this new style and was popular for two reasons:
a. Firstly you could now back roughies with confidence because with the “handicap” it all of a sudden became a 50/50 bet.
b. People could also back favourites now for a much better return by conceding the “handicap” once again making it a 50/50 play allowing them to extract bigger profits
if they were right.
Fair to say that McNeil was a maths and Human Behaviour genius!
AFL Betting Tips – Line Betting example
To give you an example the line bet of Collingwood -18.5 and Carlton +18.5 is telling us that the market makers believe Collingwood to be a 19 point better side than Carlton. We know this because when you make a “line bet” you must add (if plus team) or Subtract (if you’re the minus team) the numerical line (handicap) from the final score to see if you have won the bet.
If it was a final score Collingwood 100 def Carlton 80 then the Collingwood -18.5 option would be the winner because the final score minus the “handicap” becomes the adjusted score for betting purposes.
AFL Human Behaviour Model and Line Betting
One of the real reasons that Line betting is so profitable using our Human Behaviour Model is that teams in competitive sport are playing to win and not playing to win by big margins. The arousal level of a side can wane when they “have the game in the bag”. The intensity can drop away and all of a sudden the losing side kick a quick couple of goals and cover the “line”.
Reverse to this can also be true. If a team that is well behind may just turn it up totally allowing for a massive blowout as they are already focussing on next week’s game and their energy level is through the floor. Our Human Behaviour Model is able to detect when a side is likely to be on the “up” or on the “down” when it comes to their intensity as you can see by the results giving us a fantastic edge.
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