Crows to win AFL Grand Final 2016??

The AFL Grand Final 2016 script is far from written. Whilst Adelaides shock loss to West Coast in the last h and a game threw markets into turmoil, we think at current pricing they are the value play. This is despite the fact we know history says no from outside the T4.
The starting point is unless the Crows absolutely choked in the last round, their form is more solid than any other teams.
Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn in our view have shown greater form lapses during the year than Adelaide. GWS on our ratings are the second most consistent side.
West Coast performances away from home make them difficult to push as a proposition. The loss of Nic Nat is just too big, talk Giles and Lycett up all you want but Nic Nat is their most valuable player.
We like GWS and think they are nicely placed going ahead but the big move from outside 8 to top 4 and premiers is just too large. Prelim final perhaps but not premiers.
So outside the Crows that leaves us with Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong.
So we will discount the Hawks straight away, in fact we think they might be straight sets out. Either way it is no 4 peat! They look to just be travelling and tired. Cyril is clearly their best player and what a magnificent player at that. But time is up for Hawks and generational change looming. Four in a row just does not happen in world sport.
So we are down to the top 2, Sydney and Geelong. Geelong are dynamic and exciting, Dangerfield and Selwpod beauties. Much revolves around Hawkins but he is dodgy, the backline is solid but gettable. The Cats may powerhouse through but the jury is out Prelim final day for us!
Sydney appear to be the best team in it. Best midfield in AFL, Buddy is back, Tippett a smokey, backline solid so they tick all the boxes and probably win it.
So to Adelaide, how do they win it and why is $13 overs?
This week –
Adelaide beat North
Sydney beat GWS
West Coast beat Bulldogs (just)
Geelong beat Hawthorn
Next week –
GWS v Adelaide – Adelaide win
Hawthorn v West Coast – Hawks win
Prelim Final –
Sydney v Hawthorn – Sydney win
Geelong v Adelaide  – Adelaide win
Grand Final MCG –
Sydney v Adelaide – Adelaide win
So there it is, $13 Adelaide premiership so get on now!