Oak Door wins the Monash Stakes at $51

Melbourne Racing Tips – $51 winner last Saturday

Our Melbourne Racing Tips had an excellent result for subscribers last Saturday when Oak Door got home and won at $51. Many subscribers had a nice winning result from our Expert Melbourne Racing Tips analyst Pete Brinky and the selection of Oak Door. Oak Door was rated at $16 in our Saturday Racing Tips and got out to $51 on race day to win the Sir John Monash Stakes.

Backing 5 horses in a race

We had some great feedback from those that backed Oak Door in our Melbourne Racing Tips at Caulfield but also had a very fair question around us tipping five in a race. The question was how as a punter can you extract value from backing 5 horses in a race, so lets investigate a bit further. Of course there are circumstances where it is not possible to back 5 in a race and win however the value prices of our selections added appeal to this scenario.

Here are the numbers and scenario

Our recommendations from the Melbourne Racing Tips Monash Stakes are below lets see how this could have produced some value. Lets use a betting unit as $10 for our recommendations along with our rated prices:

N2 Malibu Style 1 unit value $6.50
N4 Kens Dream 1 unit value $12
N6 Oak Door 1 unit value $16
N7 Hard Empire 1 unit value $19
N11 Miss Norway 1 unit value $16

Now lets see how this plays out in the reality of investing in that market:

N 2 Malibu Style $10 Win @ $3.80 (possible return $38)
N 4 Kens Dream $10 WIN @  $21 (possible return $210)
N 6 Oak Door $10 WIN @ $51 (possible return $510)
N 7 Hard Empire $10 Win @ $19 (possible return $190)
N 11 Miss Norway $10 Win @ $61 (possible return $610)

So as you can see for a $10/unit investment we have invested $50 in the race and we have a positive expectation on 4 of those horses and a small loss on the other

N 2 Malibu style (-$12)
N 4 Kens Dream (+$160)
N 6 Oak Door (+$460)
N 7 Hard Empire (+$140)
N 11 Miss Norway (+$560)

Multiple betting options in a race

Backing more than one horse in a race can be hard to get your mind around as a lot of us have grown up with the idea that you back one horse only in a race. This is great but if you are looking to profit long term you have to cover as many bases as you can in a race whilst still giving yourself a good chance at a positive expectation return against the market.

The fair question to ask here is why would we back a horse that would produce a $12 loss (Malibu Style). The simple answer is that although it’s not value in the market it still ticks enough boxes for us to want to not lose our money if it wins. So to lose 20% of our money is a price we are willing to pay if it wins. This is rather than lose the lot by not backing it! This is often referred to as a “saver” bet and we often apply this to our weekly Melbourne Racing Tips selections. As a rule this is when a horse ticks enough boxes as a selection but the market price is under our rated price.

Essentially we back more than one horse to cover as many “bases” as we can on those horses we believe are value in the market and genuine winning hopes. The reason is there are so many variables at play during a race. We cant 100% predict all of these variables in advance so we have to assimilate the variables we believe to be important and allocate our betting bank across the horses we believe are value.

Melbourne Spring Carnival Racing and Sydney not far away

We hope you find this article valuable in your Saturday Racing tips assessments and betting utilising our form sheets. May there be many more Oak Door results as we head into the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnivals and the Sydney Spring Racing Carnivals kicking off in August 2019

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