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Bulldogs v Swans preview

AFL ROUND 3 Thursday night game

Bulldogs v Swans Thursday night AFL action

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS SYDNEY (MARVEL)

The 0-2 Bulldogs take on the 2-0 Swans in Thursday night AFL action. Last years Grand Finalists the Bulldogs have been meek in the opening to their start of the season. They have lost to the defending premiers then dropping their bundle against the rejuvenated Carlton. Sydney on the other hand have really come out firing taking care of their cross town rival the Giants in Round 1 then an emphatic display at home with a win over the Cats culminating in the highly emotion charged 1000th goal for Buddy.  

Sydney’s midfield has been on a rampage but they will surely encounter a Dogs midfield full of fire. At 0-2 now must be the time the Dogs respond. Historically there have been 63 teams that have started 0-2 since the AFL started and only 8 have made the finals. The Dogs (2020) were one to do it and last year 3 teams did it (Giants, Brisbane, Essendon) so all is not lost.

Whilst Sydney defeated the Bulldogs in round 17 last year the Dogs hold a 2-1 advantage in last 3 games. It’s 3-3 in the last 6 games with average margins in this time in the 20 point range. So not exactly close but not blowouts either. The interesting stat is the low total game scores between the two, average 137 points in the last 5 games in a range of 106-165 points. The highest winning score is 88 points and the lowest losing 39 points so scores have generally been hard to come by. 

Our modelling shows that the Bulldogs off two trough efforts are due to bounce and conversely Sydney off a two peak run are due to revert to the mean.

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Western Bulldogs 1.5 unit WIN $1.90 and .5 unit -1.5
Total game score .5 unit UNDER 174.5