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AFL tips and betting Season 2018 Team Preview –
Today we start our countdown to the team by team analysis for AFL tips and betting season 2018. Here is the first half of the AFL tips and betting preview for AFL season 2018 as we preview in alphabetical order half the AFL teams.
Adelaide Crows – it’s all about redemption!
2017 – 2
2016 – 5
2015 – 7
The 2017 AFL Grand Final was stated perfectly by Crows CEO Fagan “a bad day to have a bad day”. After having had a stellar year, the Crows fell badly at the final hurdle. Redemption can only be winning it and that is going to be one mighty challenge. History does not bear well for favourites who badly lose Grand Finals.
The Crows have lost Brodie Smith for the year, Chad Lever to Melbourne and Charlie Cameron to Brisbane. Smith and Lever are massive losses. Lever positions himself perfectly to support Talia in the backline and his loss now exposes the backline. Smith provides the defensive drive and will not be replaced. The forward line was dysfunctional Grand Final day after leading points for in the year. Tex, JJ, Eddie and Co can only make up for this with a Grand Final win. So these are stumbling blocks.
You wonder about the morale around the exodus of talent from the Crows over the years. Players are pretty resilient but the year on walk out of key players to other clubs must have an effect and now the same publicity around Rory Sloane will maintain this rage until his signed…if! Another unneeded diversion to the main cause.
They do get Gibbs who is a big in. At Adelaide Oval they are very tough to beat but kicking 100 points every home game is not going to cut the mustard this year. There is too much talent for Adelaide not to make the 8 and enough talent to make the Grand Final again. Do they have the grit and fight? We are about to find out but there is an argument for a drop down the table.
Prediction – 5 – 8
Brisbane – it’s all about slow growth!
2017 – 18
2016 – 17
2015 – 17
When GM of Football David Noble was recruited to Brisbane he had one brief only. Rebuild a broken club and broken they were/are? They haven’t made a profit in 10 years and have accrued $18 million of losses in that time.
Young talent has come in and could not get out of their quick enough. So in that respect the ship has been steadied but now the job is to win games and climb the table. This will not happen quick as for a club to climb someone has to fall and we cannot see too many falling under Brisbane. Winning home games will be the key to their improvement up the table and they will be like gold.
Coach Chris Fagan is out of the Hawthorn factory and has made all the right noises but he would want to see improvement this year. The do have young talent emerging and who knows Hawthorn great Luke Hodge may be able to wave his finger about, tell everyone what to do and beat a few up in the backline that might allow the young Lions to stand tall. Expect good performances at home but some beatings along the way.
Prediction – 15-18
Carlton – it’s all about the early draft picks!
2017 – 16
2016 – 14
2015 – 18
It’s been a long climb for the once mighty Blues from those crippling days of million dollar fines and loss of early draft picks as they look to emerge from the bottom of the table.
Alistair Clarkson disciple and former ex Hawks Assistant Coach Brendan Bolton is the man deemed to be the one to lead the Blues up the ladder and has started reasonably well and certainly talks the values, behavior ethos and has all the football “buzz’ words down pact.
It will amount to little without talent and the Blues have traded in a host of ex-GWS talent under the watchful eye of ex champ and List Manager Steve The SOS Silvagni. 5 top 10 draft picks in the last 3 years is the story and watch for the names Dow, O’Brien, Petrovski-Seton, Weitering and McKay to be the emerging talent.
Kreuzer, Cripps, Murphy and Simpson make a strong midfield although the injury to Sam Docherty hurts and Gibbs leaves to Adelaide. Expect some stirling performances in Melbourne but struggle-street away from home and we think a meaningful climb up the ladder is at least a year away.
Prediction – 15-18
Collingwood – it’s all about Bucks and Eddie!
2017 – 13
2016 – 12
2015 – 12
So if Clarko and Jeff are Batman and Robin who do we call Bucks and Eddie? These two are joined at the hip and unfortunately for Bucks he has overseen the destruction of a senior premiership list to an at best middle of the table mediocre side. Really there needed to be a coaching change. The side has so dramatically underperformed that a senior Coach was required to come in and steady the ship. As nice a bloke as Bucks is, given it’s a 2 year deal doesn’t really provide great comfort for the path ahead.
Collingwood has enough good players to challenge for a top 8 spot. Its midfield is very strong but the Achilles heel is up forward, they just cannot buy a goal. It is hard to see that changing again this year. A contrarian might argue for a reversal and climb up the ladder for a favourite son of the club but we just cannot argue for it.
There needed to be change and wasn’t. They probably should have stuck with Mick, sent Bucks off to North for an apprenticeship and seen if he was up to it and then bought him home if he was. Hindsight is a great thing!
Prediction – 9-13
Essendon – it’s all about rip, shit and bust!
2017 – 8
2016 – 18
2015 – 15
Two years ago Essendon’s team was decimated with the loss of most of its side due to the drug scandal. Enter ex West Coast hardman and premiership Coach John Worsfold. A man up for a fight, it was an excellent appointment for the time as Worsfold is a steady player under pressure.
In 2017 Essendon bounced straight into the finals with a season of what was a up tempo, fast, corridor attacking football. It was exciting and fans and commentators alike loved it. We call it rip, shit or bust football. When it worked, especially at Etihad, it was dazzling. When it didn’t, like in the 2017 Elimination final v Sydney it was woeful.
The Bombers have plenty of talent and have recruited well. They have set themselves up in the belief there is another immediate kick up the ladder. We are not sure. Our view is unless the Bombers can improve their defensive mindset it will go against them, teams will work them out and the route to goal may be more difficult. If you want to see the inability to handle pressure have a look at last years final v Sydney. A climb up the ladder is possible but unlikely in our view.
Predicton – 9-13
Fremantle – it’s all about Ross!
2017 – 14
2016 – 16
2015 – 3
In 2015 Fremantle finished the home and away season top on 17-5. Four weeks later they had won a final, lost the Prelim to eventual premier Hawthorn and it emerged that Nat Fyfe had a broken leg and record breaking Captain Matt Pavlich announced 2016 would be his last year.
So emerged the rebuild of Fremantle under astute Coach Ross Lyon. Ross has a reputation of taking an experienced list and getting them to a Grand Final but less known is his ability to rebuild a squad and that is what we are about to see.
Superstar Fyfe looks to be back to his best in a major benefit to the club but we cannot really see the added improvement although Lachie Neale is a super player on the back of a break out 2017. Ballantyne, Walters, Mundy and Sandilands are all just about done. Bennell continues to give the Dockers grief off the field and McCarthy up forward has talent but is inconsistent.
The other issue is scoring and Freo long rank down the bottom in points for. We cannot see the personnel changes that will improve points for so unless there is a change in ball movement we cannot see too many 100 point plus games. So unless you can continually keep teams under 70 points, wins will be tight and tough at best.
We are about to see Coach Lyon in rebuild and there will be strong wins at home but some big doubts away and the jury is out on the rebuild and by association Ross Lyon.
Prediction 9-13
Geelong – it’s all about Gazz!
2017 – 3
2016 – 4
2015 – 10
Ablett, Dangerfield, Selwood…arguably the most talented trio of midfielders ever to play in the same team. Is it enough to take the Cats the next step to the flag?
We think a top four spot beckons for the Cats. After from the above trio Menegola and Menzel add to the touch of class and with Henderson, Touhy, Taylor, Duncan and Hawkins, enough experience to steady the ship both ends of the ground.
Some experience has left the side to fit Dangerfield and Gazz into the side and to evolve the team off the 10th place in 2015. Scoring should not be a problem for a side that is generally attacking but if they are to be got it is there defence.
“The Cattery” at Geelong remains a fortress and difficult for opposition sides to win at. Last years knock out final v Sydney shows there is courage in the group and we see Geelong challenging this year.
Prediction 1-4
GWS – it’s all about it’s time!
2017 – 4
2016 – 3
2015 – 11
Most pundits believe that GWS has the most talented list in the AFL. It oozes class and we have seen that with the side making the last two Preliminary Finals and losing by close margins.
So the time is now for this team to make a Grand Final. The question is not over talent but the intestinal fortitude of this talent. Can boys become men and make the “Big Dance” let alone win it.
GWS has lost a heap of its talent from the early draft picks but has recruited some solid experience around the ones that have committed to the cause. They are well coached, have a cracking midfield, two big units up forward and Toby Greene and a solid backline.
As Bob Hawke once stated It’s Time! as it is for GWS.
Prediction 1-4
Gold Coast – it’s all about Dewy!
2017 – 17
2016 – 15
2015 – 16
A new Coach always brings new hope and enthusiasm for a Club and boy is this club in need of this. Coach Dew is well background having learnt off master Clarkson and then a solid period under the Swans. So expect Gold Coast to be more grunt and less “on the fly” as they have been known for.
That said there have been some sterling performances on the Coast. Problem this year is because of the Comm Games they play out of a suitcase for the first half of year and don’t get all those games back home in the second half.
We find it really hard to provide meaningful guidance on the Gold Coast. The squad is ok at best and we feel 2019 may be a better guide. As an expansion team for the AFL, the investment on field has been miserable and off field not much better. Yes the AFL get the extra game for TV rights but it just is not a good look, especially when you have Brisbane down the bottom as well.
It looks a tough year.
Prediction 14-18
