AFL Round 1 Tips and betting
There are no firm bets in AFL Tips and betting Round 1 as we require at least a week of form to put into play our analysis via our Human Behaviour Model. However we will provide brief analysis and overview.
Richmond v Carlton
Richmond has won the last 6 head to head in the season opener night games and over the course of the games dating back to about 2006 are 50/50 split on all games of season openers. So from a betting perspective based on the all games scenario it would be even money which would make Carlton overs but from recent games the Richmond short priced favourite price is about right. Richmond unfurl the premiership flag and you suspect the Tigers may be up for this. The Carlton argument would be the Tigers underdone and Carlton fitter and more advanced given the longer pre season. Either way its impossible to know and the line is -29.5 Richmond as strong favourites.
Result: Richmond did what they had to do in an entertaining 121-95 win over Carlton last night in front of 90,000 at the G.
Essendon v Adelaide
This could well be titled the “Shooutout at Etihad”. Both teams play an attacking up tempo game style and it is most likely to be high scoring with a total game score over 193.5, we favour the +193.5. Both teams are coming off demoralizing losses in their final games of 2017, Adelaide in the loss in the GF and Essendon in a Elimination Final loss to Sydney. As a rule, both of these types of losses would make this season problematic and open to going backwards and we may get some indication of this. At the same time given we are promoting a total game score of over +193.5, that would indicate both teams can kick +100 points. Adelaide has won the last 5 head to head and kicked over 100 points each game in doing so. It is a no bet game as are all Round 1 games but have a little look at total game score +193.5, Adelaide to kick +14.5 goals and Essendon to kick +13.5 goals.
St Kilda v Brisbane
Really if the Saints are looking at finals this year, they would want to get off to a flyer here and there is no real reason they won’t. They have kicked 100+ points in winning the last 3 games head to head. Brisbane will be looking for a competitive game and the Saints, whilst short at $1.30 should be able to cover a -24.5 line.
Port v Fremantle
Port should win and relatively comfortably but unfortunately unless Freo is greatly improved this year (which we wont really know for sometime) this game will not tell us much about Port because soft wins at home against average sides has become the norm. Of course a win is a win but we need wins against quality sides to rate Port higher. Freo would be looking for a competitive result and an increase in score output. Port has won last two at home v Freo kicking ave 134 points in the process and should cover a -23.5 line.
Hawthorn v Collingwood
This could really go either way and it’s a guess and we watch with bated breath win anticipation! Hawthorn has won the last four but its team looks a distant memory from its halcyon days. Bucks needs a win but he is damned if he does or doesn’t as a win then builds unrealistic expectation that only Collingwood supporters can dream up. That said the Pies may have improvement in them and with the game even money we would rather take the Pies than Hawks. Collingwoods route to goal and forward coversions are the keys.
Gold Coast v North
Gold Coast has won 3 of last 5 head to head and and last year 118-99 at Metricon and the three wins have kicked 100+ points. They would want a win here in Cairns and should get new Coach Stewy Dew off to a winning start. We fear for North and think there is every chance they will finish bottom. Bookies have the game even money and we see some value here Gold Coast.
GWS v Bulldogs
Last time these two played in Canberra was a 75-73 Giants win and the game before that was the epic 89-83 Bulldogs win in Sydney on the way to the 2016 premiership. Hard to see a Bulldog win but it may be close given recent history between the two. The line is -17.5 the Giants.
Melbourne v Geelong – GAME OF THE ROUND
This looks a beauty with the expected improvement of Melbourne eyeing off a finals, if not top 4 appearance and the consistent top four finishers Geelong. Interesting that Geelong have the wood over Melbourne winning 4 of last 5 and kicking big scores to boot whilst keeping Melbourne to miserable scores. Geelong ave score last 4 wins is 120 points per game whilst the Demons has scored 52 points. You would expect that to change here and the bookies have the two teams even money. Watch this is should be a pearler. Gazz is in, no Patty D.
West Coast v Sydney
The opening of the new 60,000 seat stadium should be a beauty and really have West Coast fired up, albeit against the ultra professional Sydney Swans. You get a +17.5 start West Coast at home seems good value and if you fancy a win $3.50 1-39 points the Eagles. Naitanui in for the Eagles.