AFL SUNDAY ROUND 1 GAMES
NORTH MELBOURNE VS PORT ADELAIDE (MARVEL)
Another game with two sides at differing ends of their premiership window. North Melbourne are at rock bottom. They have a new coach in place with David Noble but he’s the 3rd coach effectively in 3 years. Port Adelaide are coming off arguably one of their best home and away seasons coming up 1 kick short in the Prelim. The big question is can they replicate their 2020. Port Adelaide have improved there list and should be improved.
North Melbourne will be unrecognisable as they moved on 7-8 starters in last years cull so they have some serious work ahead. Port Adelaide were dominant in their Community series win over the Crows and the Kangaroos were seriously touched up by the Hawks (not a great advertisement).
Port has won 5 of the last 6 head to head and in doing so have kicked north of 100+ points on 3 occasions. 4 of the last 6 games have been total game points of ave 180 points per game so also high scoring via the winning side. Two years ago North kicked 144 points in its win so the winning side generally kicks a high score. Port is a $1.13 fav here and the line has shortened Port -26.5 to -33.5.
GWS GIANTS VS ST KILDA (GIANTS STADIUM)
Along with the Collingwood/Bulldogs game this is arguably the match of the round. St Kilda off a big jump last season and with some close losses the season could’ve been much better. They won a final and are looking to go again in 2021. The Giants are one of the BIG query sides of 2021. The Grand Finalists of 2019 were terrible in 2020 and will be under the pump if they struggle early.
St Kilda absolutely torched the Giants late last year by almost 10 goals and it was a massive win in a low scoring season. It will be interesting to see how Ratten can improve them, they really seemed one of the sides that thrived in isolation and made genuine bonds while away. The Giants have lost Jeremy Cameron, their absolute number 1 important player and how they cover for him will be something to watch.
After this game we will have more insight into who of these (or maybe both) are contenders or pretenders. It is 2-2 apiece plus a draw of the last 5 head to head games. Games between the two have generally been lower scoring with 3 of the last 5 ave 135 points per game. The line has been steady -7.5 GWS for the week anticipating a close game.
WEST COAST VS GOLD COAST (OPTUS STADIUM)
It’s a big ask for the Suns to travel West and take on one of the top few hopes in the premiership race. But the last 2 years they have shown early form so now may be in fact the best time for them to make the toughest trip in footy.
There is no doubt the Eagles failed to handle the hubs of the COVID interrupted 2020 season. That said when they returned home they made amends and steamrolled into the finals before a very disappointing loss to the Pies at Optus. That will burn in the guts of the Eagles.
The Suns young brigade are looking the goods, Rowell was leading the Brownlow after 4 games last year and he is the most exciting prospect in footy over the next few years. They are not to be totally dismissed here. It is wort noting the Suns have beaten the Eagles in two of the last 4 encounters including by 44 points in round 2 last year.
Of the last 6 head to head contests, West Coast is 3-2 and a 73-73 draw. 4 of the 6 games have been low scoring ave 146 points per game. The other two has been big West Coast wins kicking ave 135 points, both of these games in Perth. It is a -28.5 line West Coast, Gold Coast at their best can likely cover this, at their worst it’s an Eagles blow out.