AFL Round 1 Wrap
AFL ROUND 1 REVIEW
AFL Betting Tips season 2021 Round 1 last weekend provided us a snapshot of what AFL 2021 may provide. There was the predictability of games such as Port Adelaide winning an easy game against likely cellar dweller North Melbourne. Carlton challenged but went down to a Richmond win and the “one way AFL football of Hawthorn and Essendon. Some things just never change. Other predictable AFL Betting round 1 results was Gold Coast starting a season well, Melbourne teasing us with a win and the Bulldogs appear on track for a good season.
The there was the unpredictable AFL results of Adelaide and Sydney in particular. Adelaide “got” Geelong on the right day and stunned them in 30 degrees heat kicking over 100 points for the first time in 2 years in their 12 point win. Sydney kicked 125 points and the highest score for AFL Round 1 in beating highly fancied Brisbane in Brisbane. The Gabbatoir has been a fortress for the Lions in recent times so it is a poor loss and possibly problematic for the Lions season as it may be for the Cats.
AFL Round 1 – careful on early judgement calls
Round 1 has always been a “talk point” for pundits and supporters who want to ride the fortunes of their season on the first game of the year. Our view is you really need 4-6 games to be able to gauge where your team is at, so we temper our view however at the same time happy to put forward thoughts for comments. We would love to hear your views. email us at sport@itips.com.au message us on Facebook @iTipsports or Twitter Itips_crew
* Melbourne are once again a tease, may finish eight but if they do just
* Hawthorn and Essendon are down hill skiers, cannot defend, will not make the 8
* Port Adelaide will beat most teams but question the game plan to win a Grand Final
* North Melbourne to finish bottom 2
* Collingwood cannot score
* Richmond look top 4
* Gold Coast are well coached and will win games
AFL Betting – HBM Human Behaviour Model
Let’s see how these themes play out over the next few weeks. Of course on a week to basis these themes do not affect our betting methodology the HBM Human Behaviour Model. It is based on the peaks and troughs of team performance and successfully applied in recent years and overlayed with the bookies markets. Team’s ability or otherwise to cover line handicaps is then applied to our methodology. AFL Betting opportunities kick in this week as games data is applied.
AFL Round 1 game by game reviews
GROUND HOG DAY FOR TIGERS AND BLUES
Well the season opened totally to script, the Richmond Carlton game was and absolute carbon copy of what we normally see. Richmond win by their 4-5 goal margin, Carlton show glimpses and for a moment you think they are in for a good year and then you realise you have been tricked again and it’s the same old Carlton!! In all seriousness it was a great start to the year and a big sign to the AFL the Tigers will be thereabouts again. The Blues did show something, they played a very attacking style of game but they will need to tighten up the defensive side as conceding 75 inside 50s wont get it done.
DOGS WIN ARM WRESTLE OVER PIES AT “G”
It was a dour struggle between these two sides but the Dogs did more right for longer to get over the top of one of their bogey sides. The Bulldogs got off to a great start and they held the Pies at arms length all night with Collingwood not getting back to a single figure deficit. The Dogs midfield is top line they had 60 inside 50’s. Collingwood were always reactionary and they really are struggling to find an avenue to goal.
DEMONS WIN UGLY BUT AT LEAST IT’S A WIN OVER FREO
The last 2 years the Demons have had terrible starts losing the season opener then capitulating. In many ways it was a very important game and whilst not convincing they took the 4 points from the Dockers at the G. Melbourne need to get rid of overusing the ball they were their worst enemy again with too many handballs through the middle of the ground where they turned it over. It’s hard to judge the Dockers on that game it was scrappy and probably reserve judgment until we see them at home.
ADELAIDE DO THE UNTHINKABLE TO GEELONG
For the first time in 40 years a wooden spooner has been a Grand Final team. It last occurred in 1971 a long time before any of the Crows players were born but they played with a courage and togetherness like we have net seen from them for a long time. Adelaide led from start to finish and got out to a 43 point lead midway through the 3rd term before the Cats woke up and started to play like they should’ve from the start kicking 4 goals in a row.
The game very much looked like a side that was going to turn up and play bruise free footy (Geelong) against a cellar dweller (Adelaide) and walk away with the 4 points. Nothing was further from the truth the success starved Crows were hungry and ambushed the unsuspecting Cats led by Tex Walker with 5 goals! It was as poor as a performance as we have seen from a Chris Scott coached side and although he will be hoping it’s a “one off” this can’t be brushed under the carpet. Adelaide were brave losing 2 players early and others injured they pushed hard in a deserved win the question will be can they back it time will tell
HAWKS AND BOMBERS…BRUISE FREE ONE WAY FOOTBALL
The long held but unspoken truth about the AFL hierarchy is that a close high scoring offensive game is the template for what they want. That may be true but it will never win you an AFL premiership and this is true of Essendon and Hawthorn.
It was one of the more remarkable games of footy. Essendon were out with a 39 point lead at half time after scoring 8 goals to 1 in the second term. Hawthorn then ambushed who came out with their own 8 goal to 1 run in the third term to drag it back in. The game seesawed in the final term with the Hawks getting over the line by a single point. One for the ages would say the AFL hierarchy, for us, good luck not being able to defend to these two teams.
PLUCKY SWANS UPSET FLAG FAV BRISBANE
It was very similar to the Geelong vs Adelaide game earlier in the day. The Heavyweights (Brisbane) were looking to play some bruise free footy on their home deck against a side on the rebuild with 3 first gamers (Sydney). It turned out to be anything but. Brisbane kicked the first 3 goals and it looked to be going to script but Sydney kicked 15 of the next 22 goals to carry a huge 41 point lead into the final change.
Sydney’s leg speed was a big part of the game, so often they made position for uncontested footy and were hot on transition. Brisbane were a fair way off the pace and have some real soul searching to do. They play the Cats next week and one of the two Prelim finalists from last year will be 0-2.
PORT IN A WALK BUT DOES THE GAME PLAN STAND UP?
Port will likely do this year what they have done for a long time and that is beat up on teams that are no good. This is because their style of football suits this purpose. Against teams like this Port can play their offensive attacking game without fear and score heavily but at the same time are open to being scored against. At stoppage and defensive transition they will position for the counter punch and away they go. You cannot play like this against the better sides but you will win most of your games because of their undoubted talent. But does it stack up enough to win a GF only time will tell for Confident Ken.
Last years minor premier got off to a sluggish start and it looked possible that the third huge upset for the opening round was in the offing when the Kangaroos showed some real energy and took a lead into Q1. Port Adelaide however regrouped and came out breathing fire basically putting the Kangaroos to the sword in a quarter of footy piling on 8 goals to 1 in the 2nd term. For North it is likely a long year as part of a reset.
SAINTS TOUGH IT OUT AGAINST GIANTS
This was a crucial game to give us an insight to the fortunes of these two sides for 2021 and the truth is there is not much between them. Both will vye for the AFL finals but doubt they can be top 4 sides. It was a wet scrappy game and the Saints were tougher in the end coming from a 2 goal deficit in the last quarter to kick 4 of the last 5 goals for a good win. The alarm bells will be ringing at the Giants, this really is a game they should have won at home, with a lead in the final term and the Saints without 8 first choice players. The Giants failed when it counted and it will be a theme they need fix quickly. The Saints on the other hand can really build from a win like this.
ROWELL OUT AS SUNS PUSH EAGLES
Footy can be a cruel game as star youngster Matt Rowell found out from the Suns. After leading the Brownlow after 4 games last season he succumbed to a season ending shoulder injury only to look to end his 2021 season with a nasty looking knee injury in the opening quarter of his return. The Suns bought the heat and they looked well drilled for over 3 quarters in the toughest trip in footy.
The Eagles however are experienced and their trio of tall timber up forward got going when it counted. The Suns opened a 7 point lead early in the final term however the Eagles got going kicking the last 5 goals of the game to end up running out 25 point winners. The Eagles are likely finals bound and can challenge top 4. The Suns are well coached and we can expect improvement in 2021 but the loss of Rowell does hurt. The Suns will be teams, especially at home.
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