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AFL Round 1 Saturday games

There are no firm bets for AFL Betting Tips Round 1 as our HBM Human Behaviour Model method of assessing team performance to result in bets requires at least 1 week of data. So we provide overviews of each game and may apply an assessment that is not a firm bet as such. We will release the games overviews on the morning of each game, however from week 2 all overviews and tips will be provided on Thursday prior the weekend of games.

AFL – SATURDAY MARCH 20th

MELBOURNE VS FREMANTLE (MCG)

Melbourne need to actually start a season well. The last two opening round matches have been shocking and the long starved Melbourne faithful will not take kindly to another poor year and senior coach Simon Goodwin is under pressure. It seems Fremantle are poised to improve after a year under their new coach Justin Longmuir. They were very strong in defence and it gives them something strong to build on.

The Demons turned in a terrible pre-season effort against the highly rated Dogs. The normally reliable Dees midfield didn’t give a yelp, this needs to be rectified quickly because midfield drive was exactly their bread and butter last year. Fremantle were solid in their Community series game against the Eagles going down by 10 points. The Dockers may be undermanned up forward with injuries out of that game.

Melbourne and Fremantle are 3-3 the last 6 head to head contests with a 47-33 win to Freo last year in Cairns. Interesting is the last 3 contests at the MCG between the two have all been won by Fremantle. Total game points between the two has been in the 150-160 point range and we see much the same happening here. The line has been steady all week at -12.5 Melbourne.

ADELAIDE VS GEELONG (ADELAIDE OVAL)

This game has disaster written all over it for Adelaide. The wooden spooners take on the Grand finalists from last year and going on their pre-season efforts it doesn’t seem Adelaide have made much headway. The Crows have been comprehensively smashed by Port Adelaide in their “scratch match” and Community series game. Adelaide were pedestrian and for a side that finished bottom and has had an entire pre-season devoted to improving their total lack of energy and pressure in their pre season games is a dire sign.

Geelong is on the precipice, a side that has been thereabouts the last few years and took one extra step last year to make the Grand Final. However once again they came up short. There off season recruiting of Jeremy Cameron and Shaun Higgins has added some nice depth to the list and added a secondary forward target. Geelong look to have the ingredients to go all of the way and for a side with flag hopes this should be easy pickings.

Adelaide has actually performed quite well against Geelong including last years 37-65 pt loss in the midst of a big losing run. Geelong has won the last 3 head to head games and the average margin was about 25 points. We anticipate Adelaide putting up an effort here and the recent 25 point margin is likely the mark and the bookies have the game at -23.5.

ESSENDON VS HAWTHORN (MARVEL)

Really interesting game with two sides at a pivotal point with the Bombers a new coach and the Hawks looking to build off a terrible season. These are two bitter rivals and it really has shades of two teams MUST stand up in.

No Saad, Daniher or Fantasia gives the Bombers a very different look and we really wonder whether new coach Ben Rutten can install a little more “two way footy” in this slingshot side. Clarkson is looking to find his next crop that can take them to the trophy and it will be interesting to see if he has the stamina for the rebuild. Both sides produced nice Community Series efforts, Essendon pushing the Grand Finalist Cats all the way to the wire in a 7 point loss and the Hawks kicking a big score (120) against the lowly Kangaroos.

Essendon have won the last 2 matchups and hold a 3 from last 5 advantage. Games have generally been on the higher scoring side in total game points. The line here is -2.5 Hawthorn and they started the week -7.5 so it has tightened up in Essendon’s favour. Not much between the two and one of those must win games.

BRISBANE VS SYDNEY (GABBA)

Brisbane at home will want to avenge some bad memories, a ground where they were ripped apart by the rampaging Geelong in a Prelim Final. This was on the back of an embarrassing straight sets exit in 2019. That said, the home and away season at the Gabba has seen some dominant Brisbane performances. Sydney are at the other end of the spectrum after over a decade playing finals they have been missing the last couple of years while they rebuild. Buddy is on the road back but Sydney really need a new breed of midfielders to put their hand up.

Sydney were probably as good as they could have been the 5 goal margin in the Community series game. Brisbane had a nice win over the cross town rivals the Suns.

Brisbane have won the last 2 contests between these sides finally stopping an 11 game winning streak the Swans had that spanned almost a decade! 3 of the last 5 games has been 180+ total game score so high scoring affairs. There has been one blowout of 55 points in the last five head to heads but the other 4 games has seen an average margin of about 20 points per game. The bookies odds reflect that here with the line -24.5 Brisbane.