FRIDAY 3 JULY- COLLINGWOOD VS ESSENDON (MCG)
Two classic rivals meet as Collingwood look to get back into the winners list and the Bombers try to get a feel as to where they sit. Essendon had a brave win against the Swans then they had the McKenna COVID affair that left them with a 2 week break between games and the loss of two players. We thought this would focus their resolve however it worked they other way. They looked disjointed at times during the Carlton game.
Collingwood lost to GWS last week in a game that swung in lead various times. They now lose one of their best players Sidebottom for 4 weeks in a COVID breach and Lyndon Dunn also for a week to a breach. Jeremy Howe goes out with injury to add further wounds to the Magpies.
Collingwood has won 4 of the last 5 head to head and we get the nice sample as they play twice a year. The last 3 have been tight average 10 points per game. The total game score last 4 has been low average 144 points per game. The low scores and tight games is in some part to the Anzac Day games, much like a final. Both teams come off negative performances making it a no bet game but is likely tight. Total game score market is 116.5 points per game which equates to 58 points per side. No bet.
THURSDAY JULY 2 – CARLTON VS ST KILDA (MARVEL)
These two sides have seemingly made a strong improvement in 2020. The Blues admittedly have fallen in last two weeks but it cant be underestimated. They were 7 goals clear of Geelong in Geelong and that’s solid form. They can fall asleep in parts of matches and that the big concern for them. Another win last week, this time 1 point over Essendon when they game was seemingly lost. This puts Carlton on a bi 3 game peak performance run to the handicap line in a powerful run.
The Saints steamrolled the Tigers last week with their recruits standing up and delivering in a big peak performance. Ratten would be stoked with the improved effort off a low performance versus Collingwood. Two sides going well and the winner get’s some nice upside.
The last 5 head to head is 4-1 to St Kilda with Carlton winning the last contest 78-68. The last 2 have been close average 11 points per game. The last 4 games have been typically low scoring with an average 152 points per game. Carlton has especially struggled to score with an average score only 61 points per game. The average margin last 5 head to head is 31 points per game.
The line has tightened to Carlton late week and the triple peak run of Carlton has St Kilda as a bet.
St Kilda 1 unit win $1.80 and 1 unit -3.5