Saturday Racing Tips review – $11 BEST BET WINNER!
It was a terrific day for our Saturday Racing Tips Best Bets and Adelaide Racing Tips subscribers around the country last Saturday. Saturday Racing Tips comes from our stable of Racing Tips analysts providing Expert Racing Tips for Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane Racing. Saturday Racing Tips from iTipsports Racing comes out Friday afternoon so you can get the best odds prior race day. We then confirm with a Saturday Late Mail update that accounts for any race changes. And Adelaide Racing Tips come from our Expert Adelaide Racing Tips Value Victor.
Adelaide Best Bet $4.50 rated pays $11
And Racing Best Bet winner it was last Saturday with the win of Adelaide race 7 no 4 Irish Mint at $11. The result was even more meritorious for subscribers as our Expert Adelaide Racing Tips analyst Value Victor rated Irish Mint a $4.50 chance.
Racing Tips Best Bet winner – sorting out the best pricing
They don’t come along all the time but its important to make the most of these “money days” especially when the odds are in your favour. You only get best bets at this price level and above when there are two main factors in play:
-The favourite (ie the horse taking up the major percentage in the market) is what we term a “false favourite” meaning its price is way unders in relation to its winning chances. In short, it is showing terrible value.
– The second factor that conspires to a nice value best bet is when the opposite of the above also presents. This means when a horse who should be fav or close to is at a remarkably larger price than its chances to win. So, whenever these two factors combine together its always worth a 3 unit Best Bet play.
Betting Tips – False Favourites
In analysing our 3 unit Best Bet $11 Racing Tips winner of Irish Mint on the weekend lets look at these two bove areas. This is critical to our form analysis and rated prices for iTipsports Racing.
THE “FALSE” FAVOURITE
AR7 N9 FLOSTAR
Starting the $2.90 favourite we saw it a big risk or a “false fav” if you like. The market clearly rated its nearly 5 length win very highly at its previous start. But there were a lot of other factors that appeared not factored as strongly. Here we had a 3 year old filly (always a risk particularly the females at 3 taking on the older horses). She was also now not racing against her own sex (she won in fillies and mares last start). She was down in weight but significantly up in class, with some chinks in her armour.
When she won 2 ago she layed out badly the last 200m. This can be a sign of a horse who isn’t genuine or still green and can be vulnerable in a close finish. And as we saw this again on Saturday when the pressure was on she did exactly the same thing and threw the race away.
She had also only had one run on a slow track where went terribly (beaten 9 lengths) all her other form was on top of ground and she clearly produced a career best run last start and that can take a lot out of a horse, she actually had to go to another career best again to win here very hard to put 2 new career bests back to back and on top of all this it was her first interstate trip-never easy- so there were question marks everywhere you looked with her, so as you can see when you dig a bit deeper than “won her last two starts” you uncover all sorts of holes in her ability to win this race!
RACING TIPS – OUR BEST BET
N4 IRISH MINT
How this horse was $11 (best offered was $14) is beyond us. This horse was having its 3rd run back this prep, first up was swamped on a bog track by nice talent. Then second up (fitter) won at the same track, trip and grade that it did on Saturday and was only $8.
So how could it be that 3rd up (peak fitness now) after being challenged and responding last run (shows courage) was only carrying 0.5kg more than its win last start drawn to either box seat or lead on a track that was biased to this racing pattern and proven (as recently as last start) on the soft ground.
How could it go around in the same class, the same conditions, basically carry the same weight be fitter and yet be a bigger price? It makes no sense when you look at it this way. However the market got caught up “winning margin fever” as Flostar the fav won by nearly 5 lengths running away last start. And whilst these wins are “visually exciting” you need to dig a little deeper for the facts.
So as you can see from the above there were all sorts of variables that disadvantaged the fav whereas Irish Mint had been proven at pretty much all variables only 3 weeks earlier!
Value Best Bet Tips
The takeaway from this is that iTipsports Saturday Best Bets don’t always have to be the $2.50 pops on occasions there is such a set taken against great winning chances without much supporting data that they get out to a ridiculous price, this is clearly what happened here. Sure these opportunities don’t come along all the time however make hay while the sun shines we say!
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