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AFL Football Mid Season Line Review

I thought i would share a quick overview of an area we will be able to gain an advantage in for the last part of the AFL Season. Below i have posted a “LINE LADDER” basically it is a ladder in order of teams who cover the lines most down to those who don’t. Now the reason that this is important is when there are some big “COVER” “NON COVER” discrepancies history will show that these tend to “even up” a bit over the last part of the year-meaning that generally speaking they get a bit closer to the “50/50” rate., so teams who have a high cover percentage tend to have that percentage drop(don’t cover) and the teams with a low cover percentage tend to increase it a bit(cover more games). Anyway here is the ladder:

 

CoverNot Cover
Essendon

10

4

Port Adelaide

10

4

Richmond

9

5

Gold Coast

9

5

Geelong

8

6

Fremantle

8

6

North Melb

7

7

Collingwood

7

7

Adelaide

7

7

Melbourne

7

7

Hawthorn

6

8

Sydney

6

8

St Kilda

6

8

West Bulldogs

6

8

GWS

6

8

West Coast

5

9

Brisbane

5

9

Carlton

4

10

 

 

So as you can see Essendon, Port Adelaide, Richmond and the Gold Coast have covered at a high rate so far this year(60%or greater)-pure market dynamics(and mathematics) say to me that they will be MORE of a chance to NOT cover in their remaining games this year-and the reverse is true for Carlton, Brisbane and West Coast (covered 40% or less) they will be More of a chane to COVER than not in their remaining matches. I have also noticed in the past that this becomes an even stronger proposition when these teams play each other (ie Essendon play Carlton or Brisbane play Port Adelaide) because you have the power of this mathematical dynamic working simultaneously.

 

Then of course you have those middle of the road teams who cover between 45-55% of their matches  and i dont believe we can find ourselves an edge in these teams. Anyway i just thought i would point out this opportunity for us in the coming weeks as i continue to share my thoughts and give you an insight into how i do things.

 

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