AFL BETTING TIPS – FINALS OVERVIEW
Last week we suggested to our subscribers that saving the West Coast Eagles at $10 to win the AFL Grand Final was a viable option, that proved handy as they have now tightened into $7.50 for the AFL Premiership.
We also suggested to wait post the Brisbane game to take the Grand Final Quinella Brisbane/Richmond this to has proved correct (drifting from $5 to $6) despite our reasoning being Richmond would lose. The market obviously didn’t like what they saw with Brisbane and it has eased accordingly. Not surprisingly the Richmond/Collingwood Grand Final Quinella is the $2.10 fav and we are willing to risk this play as we just do not see value at even money.
AFL Betting Tips – GWS Giants are value
We feel that the Giants at $13 for the flag and $7 to make the Grand Final represents some value. The Giants have beaten Brisbane in 6 of the last 7 matches (they lost the last one by 20 points) and have beaten Brisbane the last 4 times at the Gabba. Sure this is a different version of the Brisbane Lions but they are now vulnerable and under pressure in unchartered waters losing their first final. It would be no surprise to see an experienced finals side get the better of them for the second week in a row. Not that we are tipping the Giants to win necessarily but they look over the odds in the futures markets.
With the above statements we obviously believe Collingwood to be some sort of risk. They are injury riddled and to us whilst it can be an “upside” to having fresh players, their injured players are not seasoned and hardened enough and with another week off we feel it will leave them with a soft underbelly leading into the Preliminary Final and they may get found out. We like the Brisbane/Richmond ($6) and GWS/Richmond Grand Final quinella’s as the value plays
GEELONG versus WEST COAST EAGLES – Friday night MCG
Without wanting to bang on about it we cannot for the life of us understand why this game is not at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong’s home ground. They finish top, they get the right to a home final. It is as simple as that and the AFL has really stuffed this up.
Geelong have massive pressure
There is massive pressure on the Cats in our first AFL Betting Tips Semi Final as they head yet again to the MCG after suffering a first round finals defeat for the 3rd year in a row. West Coast showed some really nice bounce in performance after a horror end to their home and away year. The defending premier certainly found form at the right time but as Geelong coach Chris Scott pointed out “we all have short memories they didn’t seem that good two weeks ago” firing the first barb after his side lost to Collingwood. Chris Scott needs to focus more on his side and less on what others are doing. Geelong are in danger of being the first side since 1994 when the AFL finals top 8 was introduced to be bundled out in straight sets after finishing the minor premier. Not something the Cats want on the mantle piece.
West Coast strong away from home
West Coast will like their chances and they have really made the MCG their home away from home winning 5 of their last 6 at the home of footy. The loss was only by a goal late this season to the rampaging Tigers.
Geelong embarrassed the Eagles at GMHBA Stadium earlier this year leading Simpson to label his sides efforts not “AFL Standard” so that will be fresh in the Eagles players minds. Geelong need to get things right at selection, they erred last week dropping Stanley and they have another leviathan ruckman to counter this week in the big Nic Nat!! We will really see what Geelong is made of here, they need to stand up and be counted or it will be 3 straight years of underachieving.
Does the Willie Rioli factor play a role
Well this is very difficult to answer but it does put an undue pressure that you simply do not need at this point. Coach Simpson would be spewing and asking himself the question “WTF” has happened? This is a club that has had controversial issues around player behaviour and here we go again (possibly). It does West Coast no favours at all and eases pressure on Geelong.
AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers
This year it was Geelong 104-46 at GMHBA in Geelong as it was 123-79 at the same ground 2016. West Coast has won 3 of the last 5 in Perth so the last five have all gone to home ground status. Only two of the last five head to head has been close average margin of these two 14 points per game. Geelong has been able to kick over 100 points in each of its home game wins versus West Coast with the Eagles only doing it once at home. The head to head games Geelong average 88 points per game whilst West Coast is 85 points per game.
Of the last five games in the AFL Geelong has gone 2-3 with a +16 points differential. They have scored average 77 points for and have had only 61 points against. They will need to be at their defensive best here. West Coast is 3-2 in the AFL the last five weeks with a +9 points differential. They can score high average 92 points per game but get scored against average 82 points per game.
West Coast had the big peak performance last week and Geelong went into the Collingwood game with a big three game peak cover but missed the line. They got home hard nearly rolling Collingwood after giving it away early and we expect Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood and Co to bounce hard here.
