AFL FINALS RACE 2019

AFL BETTING TIPS – VALUE BETS FUTURES MARKETS AFL PREMIERSHIP 

The AFL Betting Tips season is about to embark on the AFL Finals series 2019. The race for the AFL Grand Final and the AFL Premiership is on.  We delve into the AFL Betting Futures market as we take a look at how we think it all may play out.

Note this scenario is NOT based on our Human Behaviour Model that we use to analyse and predict betting options on a weekly basis. This is simply an opportunity to forward look at what play out in the AFL Finals series in the chase to the AFL Grand Final and AFL Premiership. It looks for AFL Betting opportunities in the AFL Futures market.

AFL BETTING TIPS – WEEK 1 AFL FINALS

GEELONG vs COLLINGWOOD MCG
The cats are vulnerable, they were dominant in the opening half of the year (winning 11 of 12) but they have ben exposed in the second half of the year going win loss win loss their last 10 games. Yes they finished minor premiers but lose the “home ground” advantage by playing Collingwood at the MCG. Chris Scott bristling at this which is an interesting public stance from a senior coach prior to the AFL Finals series. He is basically conceding his side would be better at GMBHA Stadium rather than the MCG. Whilst this might be fact it’s not a message you want to be sending to your playing group, you need to be an anywhere anytime team. The Pies themselves haven’t lit the world on fire. But key players coming back they look the value and no question they get some nice uplift in chances by having it played at their home ground

Collingwood win and go into a home Prelim Final at the MCG.
Geelong lose play winner of West Coast vs Essendon at GMBHA Stadium/MCG

BRISBANE vs RICHMOND GABBA
It is déjà vu here as these two sides meet again after playing in the final round of the AFL Betting Tips Season. Richmond got it done on that occasion and they are on a phenomenal run of 9 wins in a row since the mid season break. The Gabba will be a very different proposition to the last time the Tigers played there (Round 4 2017). Brisbane have made the Gabba their own losing only 1 game their this year, and although beaten by the Tigers they were right in the game. At home the Lions can get it done, they have handled themselves well with expectation since the Collingwood Game.

Brisbane win into a home Prelim Final at the Gabba.
Richmond lose and play the winner of GWS/Bulldogs at MCG.
AFL BETTING OPPORTUNITY: The value play is to back Brisbane to win the Premiership before this game (currently $6.50) we also advise backing the Brisbane/Richmond Grand Final Qulnella after this game, as a Richmond loss would increase the odds (currently $5)

WEST COAST vs ESSENDON OPTUS STADIUM
The Eagles were badly stung in the final round of the AFL Betting Tips smacked at home by a rampaging Hawthorn. This meant they fell outside the AFL Top 4. How they have dealt with the fallout of that will go a long way to determine the outcome here. Essendon are too in and out to trust but no doubt when they get their game going are difficult to stop. Essendon were embarrassed earlier in the year in the West and look tested in this game.
West Coast win and head to GMBHA Stadium or MCG versus Geelong
Essendon season finished.
AFL BETTING OPPORTUNITY:
West Coast currently $10 for the AFL Flag may be a worth a small save play prior to this game.

GWS vs WESTERN BULLDOGS GIANTS STADIUM
The Giants have been one of the big disappointing teams of the AFL Betting Tips home and away season. They were slaughtered by the Bulldogs here only a few weeks ago. The Western Bulldogs have become a scoring powerhouse with an average of 126 points over the last 3 weeks. This will be difficult to maintain in AFL Finals which are typically high pressure and lower scoring. But they are one of the form teams in the comp winning 7 of their last 9 games and storming into the finals. They have some real momentum and there is a bit of a 2016 feel about the Dogs.
Western Bulldogs to win and take on Richmond at the MCG next final
GWS eliminated (and we predict looking for a new Coach).

AFL BETTING TIPS – WEEK 2 AFL FINALS

GEELONG vs WEST COAST  – GMBHA/MCG
The venue for this clash is SUPER important, given it looks like the other final could be Richmond at the MCG. Geelong may get the chance to host this at GMBHA Stadium given its against a lower drawing interstate team. This will be a BIG plus if they host in Geelong. Earlier in the AFL Betting Tips season the Cats smashed the Eagles by 10 goals in Geelong and although this was when the Cats were up and rolling it still gives some guide to this game. The Eagles would need to have put in a really strong effort against Essendon to show they are back on track, make no mistake they can win the flag, they can beat anyone on any given day, if this game is at the MCG it evens things right up.
Geelong win they head to Brisbane to play a Prelim final
West Coast are eliminated

RICHMOND vs WESTERN BULLDOGS  – MCG
These two sides have really strung together some solid footy in the back half of the year. Given that its played at the MCG the Tigers are the fancied play, but if they faulter to stop the midfield drive of the Dogs they have shown how lethal they can be scoring quickly. A big part pf this game will come down to Richmond’s ability to stop the Bulldogs transition from half back, as the Tigers are the one of the leading forward 50 pressure sides in the comp this should see them get through to the Prelim.
Richmond on their home deck win and advance to the Prelim Final
Bulldogs are eliminated

AFL BETTING TIPS – PRELIMINARY FINALS

BRISBANE vs GEELONG – GABBA
The last time Brisbane hosted a prelim final was in 2002 when they beat Port Adelaide and went on to win the 2nd of their 3 premierships in a row. This will be the biggest test this side will have faced. How they handle the pressure will be key. They would have been sitting on the sidelines for 2 weeks watching the others fight it out. This will be another “first for this young group and they did perform superbly off a break earlier in the year a 10 goal win over the Saints in Melbourne after their bye. Geelong will have the momentum of playing, and they can draw great confidence from their blockbuster clash only a few weeks ago in Brisbane. They had control of the game they simply ran out of puff on a 28 degree day having travelled across the country in 3 of the 4 weeks leading up. This shapes to be a cracker but we think the Lions can continue the fairy tale story
Brisbane win advance to the Grand Final
Geelong are eliminated

COLLINGWOOD vs RICHMOND
This really shapes to be a beauty a replay of the big Prelim final from last year that saw the Pies take Richmond apart who were a bit banged up especially their star Dusty Martin, the shoe looks to be on the other foot here as the Tigers really have their side up and firing after a terrible first half of the year with injuries where as Collingwood will either be taking in players to this game under a cloud or fit players of slightly less talent. If Collingwood can put it all together than yes they can win the more likely scenario is that Richmond continue with their second half of the year dominance and get through to the big one
Richmond win advance to the Grand Final
Collingwood are eliminated.

AFL BETTING TIPS – GRAND FINAL

BRISBANE vs RICHMOND
This is such a unique situation as it will be the third time these sides have met in the last 5 games so we should really have a true form line and a good handle on the pluses and minuses for each group.

No doubt the tall timber on AFL Grand final day for the Tigers up forward can pose some headaches, not only will they be key targets but they can bring the ball to ground for the dangerous small forwards, this is one negative of Brisbane they are very good tall defenders but lack some small defender pace.

Brisbane will be on the big stage for the first time that is sure to play some part in this game but they arguable have been the physically toughest side of this season which is a big tick for a young side. Either way this shapes to be a ripper Richmond probably start favourite but its one that could go either way as is always the case on AFL Grand Final day.
Richmond to be Premiers

AFL BETTING TIPS – BETTING SUMMARY

There are some obvious value plays sitting in the market place at the moment the AFL Quinella currently has the Richmond/Brisbane option as the $5 favourite yet quite remarkably Brisbane are rated a $6.50 4th favourite to win the flag. This makes no sense from a betting percentage if they are in the favoured Grand final quinella it stands to reason they should be the fav/second fav for the flag, Brisbane at $6.50 represents some value.

We would also like to back the Richmond/Brisbane Grand Final Quinellabut we believe some slightly better value may be available for that should Richmond lose that first final in Brisbane. So our play is to back the Richmond/Brisbane Quinella AFTER the first final should the result go the way we predict.

The other value/save play could be the $10 for the AFL Premiership West Coast Eagles. On the back of one result (loss to Hawthorn) they blew out from $3.50 equal flag fav to $10 hope, yes they lost the double chance but they didn’t lose their ability, they are a side capable of getting it done with a big few weeks of finals, the radical market drift signals them as a save play at the very minimum

Whilst we have predicted Richmond to win the flag we see no value in backing them at $3 they will likely drift should they lose the first final. This would be the time to invest in Richmond to win AFL Premiership.