AFL Betting Tips 2020 – the first 4 weeks

Finally, AFL Betting Tips 2020 is with us after a long wait because of COVID-19. We have written this piece especially in the context of the Gold Coast hub for S.A. and W.A. teams. Now the Gold Coast is hardly the worst place on the planet to be spending a few weeks. But AFL players are creatures of habit and there is no place like home! There are other teams who benefit from rounds 2-5, namely Victorian sides where most travel once in 4 weeks and two sides not at all.

Importantly, the below comments are simply background and do not directly affect our AFL Tips 2020. Our HBM Human Behaviour Model of assessing team performance is applied only to the games that are played, the results and the bookmakers markets. It does not forecast the likely results in advance of the week to week games. Principal to our HBM betting model is bookmakers head to head odds and week to week results allow us to determine peak and trough performances and take advantage of bookies incorrectly pricing markets.

However early wins will be a premium so to those who utilise AFL Betting Tips in the AFL Betting Futures markets the first few rounds are likely to be crucial. The AFL Betting Futures Markets are areas like Top 8 Finals, Top 4 and Grand Finalists and the below comments may be useful to those who venture to those markets.

Read more about our HBM Human Behaviour Model
https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/

AFL BETTING TIPS – SEASON 2020

AFL Betting Tips Season 2020 $199 JOIN NOW
https://itipsports.com.au/join/

NRL Betting Tips Season 2020 $99 JOIN NOW
https://itipsports.com.au/join/

BUY AFL RECEIVE NRL FREE

AFL Betting Tips Season 2020 – Rounds 2-5

The AFL has released the next 4 rounds, rounds 2-5. With the current restrictions in place, namely South Australia and West Australia, it offers a good opportunity for some sides to get a key jump on their opposition with seeming advantages due to the AFL Draw.

GEELONG

Geelong has campaigned for years for home finals along with games versus big ticket sides at GMHBA Stadium. Selling some home games to the MCG allowes the AFL to have the big crowds for the big clubs and Geelong has played the likes of Hawthorn, Collingwood etc. at the G.

With no crowds, it seems Geelong’s years of fighting AFL house has paid off. They play 3 of their next 4 games at GMHBA Stadium, most notably Hawthorn the blockbuster normally reserved for the MCG. The AFL is also on record suggesting that marquee teams like Collingwood and Essendon will venture down the Geelong Highway for the first time in 25 years. While there will be no “home crowd” advantage for the Cats the shape of the ground and the wintery weather has often been a difficult obstacle for teams to overcome.

GWS GIANTS

The Giants are on a season of redemption after the terrible embarrassment in last years Grand Final. They had a good win in round 1 against the Cats and are advantaged with 3 of their next 4 at their home deck Giants Stadium.

This side normally travels to Canberra to play home games early in the season, however the luxury of playing in Western Sydney gives them every hope to have a great start to the year.

BRISBANE/GOLD COAST

As far as the “premiership window” is concerned Brisbane are best placed in this regard however with the hubs being set up in Qld the Suns do get 3 of the next 4 games on their home deck. Brisbane will not know themselves playing their next month of footy at the Gabba. As importantly all 4 opponents are the hub travelling teams, so its fair to suggest they may be a bit “off kilter” with the strange preparation.

The Suns are in a similar boat playing 3 of their first 4 on their home deck, however they will be the first side to leave the hub playing the Cats in round 5 in Geelong.

SYDNEY SWANS 

The Swans are another side who look to get an advantage of getting a good start with 3 of their next 4 games at the SCG. That said, in recent times it hasn’t been a happy hunting ground. Days gone by, the Swans at home are a scary proposition, they travel away to meet the Kangaroos who they have a decent recent record against and they also won their opening round of the season. If they are right it could be a 5-0 or 4-1 scenario.

footnote: Buddy Franklin strained a hamstring today and this shows the frailties in this interrupted season. Franklin at 32 years of age, missed 4 weeks with a hammy early in 2019 then 7 weeks second half of year. Older players are at great risk with this shortened 3 weeks of training in prep for June 11 start. Players like Buddy, as good as they have been will find this season awfully difficult to be prepared. No Franklin for the Swans will make life difficult for them and does compromise the home ground advantage and possible strong start.

ADELAIDE/PORT ADELAIDE/WEST COAST/FREMANTLE

No question the “hub teams” are at a disadvantage, away for a few weeks locked away in hotels in relative isolation wont be the best prep for these teams. Added to this these sides are also “burning” a home game playing it up in Brisbane.

In defence the AFL have done it in the fairest possible way ensuring the “home game” is not to be played against one of the Queensland sides (ie they will play each other on a 50-50 venue). If these sides are to have a decent crack at the season they will need the travel restrictions to be overturned in their states. Reverting to a hub post this 4 week span would be the death knell. Now you may argue that living and training on the Gold Coast, well, there are worst things on the planet to do. However our view is that human behaviour is humans are creatures of habit and there is no place like home. Thanks to the S.A. and W.A. Governments, these four teams do not have that luxury.

MELBOURNE BASED SIDES (EX-GEELONG)

In short they are the least impacted in a positive or negative way. Some may say of course the AFL IS the VFL so why would they! However these are exceptional times. The Bulldogs may be the exception here travelling to Sydney twice (in their first 4 games). North Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood Melbourne, Richmond and Hawthorn all travel once with their remaining 3 games all played in Melbourne. Carlton and St Kilda are not required to jump on a plane in the first 4 rounds with all games played in Victoria. So in essence the Victorian teams have the least influence as there is essentially no departure from their norm.