AFL TIPS BETTING – BIG PROFIT RESULTS ROUND 8
It was a superb profitable weekend in AFL Tips Betting with our Human Behaviour Model. Our forecasting model to assess and deliver value in our AFL Betting Tips investments is reaping reward for subscribers.
It has delivered some outstanding results for subscribers in our AFL Betting Tips and here are our results from Round 8 AFL tips games.
* 5 from 5 winning line handicap bets at 100% strike rate
* 100% profit on turnover on line handicap bets
* 8 from 10 winning bets at 80% strike win rate
* 3 from 5 Win bets at 60% strike rate
* 76% profit on turnover from win bets
Our AFL Betting Tips round 8 winning AFL Bets were as follows:
* Richmond 3 unit Best Bet win $2.30 and +8.5 line handicap
* Hawthorn 1.5 unit win $2.50 and +12.5 line handicap
* North Melbourne 1 unit +24.5 line handicap
* Bulldogs 1.5 unit win $1.72 and -4.5 line handicap
* Carlton 1 unit +39.5
You can read more about our Human Behaviour Model strategy for forecasting AFL Betting Tips investments here at https://itipsports.com.au/sports-betting-tips-human-behavior-model/
SWANS STAND TALL AS RAMPE STANDS TALLER!!!
It was one of the more bizzare things we have seen on an AFL field with Dane Rampe jumping and clinging onto the goalpost. He was crouching tiger hidden dragon style endeavouring to get himself in to a higher position to stop a game winning kick from Essendon. Ironically it’s this very thing that could’ve lost the Swans the game. When you put it all into perspective what Rampe did arguably had zero result on Myers long range attempt. However under the strict interpretation of no player deliberately shaking a post before, during or after a players shot on goal he could easily have given away a match winning free kick with that brain fade.
Sydney snapped a four game losing streak and there were some signs for Swans fans to get a bit excited about. Essendon will be concerned at their ability to turn the game their way when plan A (run and gun) doesn’t work and in reality they will be lucky to make the top eight with queries around the game style stacking up. Sydney really slowed the transition of Essendon which was an important aspect to the game on the small SCG, Essendon have now lost 3 in a row and are right back in the scramble with 3 wins 5 losses, and the Dockers next week.
SCRAPPY DOGS GET HOME OVER WASTEFUL LIONS
Really nice profit result here for subscribers as our modelling had the Bulldogs here -4.5 and $1.72 win for a profit result as the Dogs got home 92-76.
The Bulldogs went to their adopted second home in Ballarat and pulled off back to back wins to level up their season at 4-4. Brisbane began the game well but failed to convert with majors (Hipwood 0.5 for the game) and with eight scoring shots to four in the opening quarter they could’ve really made things tough for the Dogs.
The Dogs have put together 8 consistent quarters of footy in the last 2 weeks and Coach Beveridge was quick to point out they have only “now discovered consistency”. There is no doubt the Lions have improved but on the road away from home still remains a big query!
DEMONS GREAT ESCAPE! OVER SUNS!!
The Suns looked home in yet another thriller Holman dobbed a goal from 50 the Suns went a goal clear and there was 50 seconds left. Surely they couldn’t lose it from here…but they did. It took a 6 gamer to kick his first goal of AFL footy Marty Hore and the Demons drew level. With 18 seconds left on the clock a scramble from the final centre clearance sent Melbourne forward and Tom McDonald managed to fumble his way to kick it into the post and put the Demons in front to win the game.
The Demons ticked a lot of boxes in game as they have all year 66 inside 50’s (42 suns) and won the contested count by 15 and the clearances by 14. However they cannot score and this is a big issue for them.
The Suns had yet another game decided by under a kick and they have shown up North they are going to really be a tough proposition. The question will be how long Dew can keep them up throughout a tough AFL year.
EAGLES “SPLUTTER “ TO 5-3 BUT TRACKING UPWARDS
It was still far from convincing but the Eagles managed to grind out a win on the road against a plucky Saints who are now right back in the ruck at 4-4. The Eagles have been playing below their capacity, yet still winning. Adam Simpson pointed out the longer things go the better they will get.
St Kilda tried hard but they are really feeling the pains of their injury list. Having lost three in a row really have the task ahead in the back half of the year to keep their September hopes alive. Alan Richardson the St Kilda coach could ask no more of his troops, they gave supreme effort but lacked the polish.
CROWS FOUR STRAIGHT AS POWER GO DOWN IN SHOWDOWN
Adelaide made it four in a row and got their season ahead of the ledger for the first time this year now sitting 5-3 in the top 4.
The most impressive part to Adelaide’s game this year has been their ability to adapt. They have had somewhat of an identity change from the high octane free flowing masters, to developing some real grunt and defensive nature to their game. This is best reflected by the last four weeks with average points against of only 54 points per game.
Port Adelaide on the other hand are still searching. Yes they had key players out and their effort was hard to question but they just have no structure going forward. It is a real problem that a side has 69 inside 50’s for 9 goals. Yet they were still in the game with 10 minutes to go so they will be upset and happy at the same time!! Port have an important three weeks ahead with the Suns into the Hawks (Melb) and then the Saints (China).
BLUES BRAVE BUT PIES TAKE POINTS
This was a classic AFL Betting Tips “human behaviour” game under our modelling and we were delivered with an excellent +39.5 line handicap in our AFL tips for subscribers. It was oh so close to the big $6.50 win at one point.
With under siege Carlton taking the cruising Collingwood, one team doing not much right the other doing not much wrong. However human pride and grudge match games can even the ledger and Carlton looked like pulling of the most improbable of wins. They had nearly a two goal buffer nearly midway into the final quarter and our AFL Betting Tips $6.50 win bet was looking good.
But the sleeping giant Collingwood awoke and went bang, bang, bang and quickly turned an 11 point deficit into a 19 point victory.
Carlton coach Bolton had been under siege all week with even Collingwood President Eddie Maguire calling for his head and expressing Alistair Clarkson was a better option. How conflicted can you get…the high profile media commentator AND Collingwood President suggesting the team his club are playing should consider changing coach!! Talk about giving the opposition free aim at you!! Collingwood Coach Nathan Buckley would have been filthy and we cannot conceive that words would not have been had behind closed doors. It is hard enough to win without your main Administrator throwing curve balls in favour of your opposition. It is the oldes tactic in the book to use this ammunition and we are sure Eddies rear would have been squirming in the last quarter!!
The resolve Carlton showed and the way the players produced an effort for their coach may indicate that Bolton is around for a while yet despite his terrible record. Buckley will take the points and move on and this was as nice wake up call for Collingwood. Carlton on the other hand need to treat this loss as unacceptable and despite the good things in the game they need to stop accepting the honourable losses.
CATS ARE TOP OF THE POPS
We just got our AFL Betting Tips line handicap bet home here with a +24.5 line North Melbourne home in a 24 point loss for North 80-104 to Geelong.
In the battle of the Scott twins (Geelong and North coaches) it was Chris who prevailed over Brad and little wonder. Geelong is full of class, they are versatile and their team play elevates them to an even higher level. They were not at their crushing best, yet still managed to crush the Roos. They are an exciting team to watch and with Ablett running rampant up forward they are hard to stop.
Its hard to be critical of the Kangaroos they worked very hard and despite being nearly 7 goals down in the third term they rallied to get the margin back to 10 points. The challenge for the Kangaroos is going to be to bring the heat and that style of play regardless of who they play.
Gazza likely in trouble
Ablett has been on fire for Geelong and delivered four goals again but will find himself in hot water. Another late high hit very similar to the one he got off on last weekend has occurred and he is walking a fine line at the moment. True the contact did not appear extremely forcefully but it will still be looked at. Gazz may be getting that week off the Cats want to give him in in a forced way. This is a shame as the champ is on fire and must be racking up Brownlow votes. At 35 years of age, the move to playing him more forward is a masterstroke and he is simply too good for whoever he plays on. Surely Gazza is close to the best ever AFL player!
HAWTHORN’S CLARKSON TOUGH MESSAGE GETS RESPONSE
Really nice AFL tips betting result for subscribers here as our modelling had a Hawthorn bounce here and they duly delivered in a +11.5 line handicap and $2.75 win over GWS.
The guile of Alistair Clarkson was there for all to see as was the reason he has been the most successful coach in the game in the modern era. Clarkson made waves by dropping his former skipper Jaryd Roughhead made it became a real eye opener with the ruthlessness he delivered. His next comment “Roughy may have played his final game for this club, its not about Roughy its not about Clarkson its about what’s best for the Hawthorn footy club”.
Not many coaches, if any (Ross Lyon apart, maybe now Hardwick) could actually get away with saying that. But the thing is, Clarkson and Lyon can because they actually mean it. It is this ruthlessness that sets them apart as clearly the best two coaches in the AFL.
Clarkson makes the tough calls, always has and always will and in the process sends the strongest message imaginable to his side. If he can do that to former captain and four time premiership player then what can he do to me is what the players are thinking!!!
And so it was, the response was swift and strong from the Hawks and they continued the GWS nightmare run at the MCG (lost 14 of 16). The Hawks ability to lock down on the GWS and stop their creative run into space was a big part of their success.
GWS Giants Coach Leon Cameron was seething post game with his side lacking “AFL standard effort” and questioning the mental application of his team. There are now big question marks over a side who had made so many strides forward yet on the weekend kicked their third lowest score in their history. They are talented but results like this do set them back.
Of course the million dollar question is does Clarkson bring back Roughead? We say yes he will and the mystique and legend of Clarkson continues.
DOCKERS AMBUSHED, TIGERS HUNT A BEST BET WIN
This was another classic AFL Betting Tips Human Behaviour game and we were able to produce an excellent result for subscribers. Our modelling had Richmond in the bounce on the back of the four game peak run of Fremantle. Richmond duly delivered in a Best Bet +8.5 and $2.30 win for subscribers.
After a soul destroying loss to the Bulldogs last week it would’ve seemed like a long week waiting for redemption at Tigerland. When the chance came the Tigers exploded like a cork out of the champagne bottle in a blistering opening in the West. AFL footy is all about momentum and the Tigers made sure it was with them kicking the opening four goals of the game in the first 10 minutes and the Dockers looked half asleep.
Fremantle responded but the Tigers balanced and went again blowing the game apart with a 44 point lead. Richmond have been very good, injury ravaged yet in a majority of cases have still found a way. The Dockers cling to eighth spot after the loss in a group of five teams sitting 4-4. Lyon will be disappointed with the lack of early intensity and Nat Fyfe looks in trouble for an elbow to Tom Lynch. They really need to regroup as they have a tough assignment up next in the Bombers at Marvel stadium.
Once again accuracy in front of goal was a telling stat with the same amount of shots, one side 12-14 (Dockers) the other 17-9 (Tigers). This continues to be a telling stat in the AFL.
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