AFL Betting Tips – Rd 22 Saturday Carlton versus St Kilda
T-Train in the Drivers Seat
So David Teague gets the Carlton coaching gig. Bizarre timing really as they could have waited until season end and seen what unfolds from other teams not making the ALF Finals. It is not like Teague was going anywhere! Anyway, another Blues coach and lets see how he goes in a history not recent kind in Carlton land.
Is Ratten the next to get an AFL coaching gig?
Carlton take on St Kilda in our early AFL Betting Tips Saturday game. Once again not a game to get you salivating but at least a good contest should be had. Both of these sides are having a good trot under their “caretaker” coaches (now permanent for Carlton). The Saints have won 3 of 4 under Ratten and a win here would likely see the Saints hierarchy follow suite behind North and Carlton.
St Kilda had a last gasp win last week against the Dockers and it was evident how much they have missed Jack Steven as he jagged 3 goals and 23 possessions from a small forward. Carlton weren’t blown off the park against the Tigers who are steaming toward September so it shapes to be a good arm wrestle.
AFL Betting Tips – key numbers
Carlton has not beaten St Kilda since Rd 4 2015. Since then, St Kilda has won the last five head to head with the closest of those games this year in Round 10 with a low scoring 68-55 Saints win. Apart from a 19 point results St Kilda has won recent game comfortably. We are at Marvel here where 4 of the last 5 head to head games have been. Despite St Kilda winning last week, neither team covered the line voiding each other from a betting proposition making this a no bet game.
Brisbane versus Geelong – AFL Game of the Round
Now we get serious in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday as possibly the match of the year takes shape at the Gabba in Brisbane. This game could possibly decide the Minor premiership and whoever wins this match will be in top spot with one game to play in the AFL home and away season. They would possibly assume favouritism in the AFL Betting Premiership race by securing an AFL home final.
Brisbane – AFL team of the year thus far
Brisbane have been a remarkable story in 2019 and have been basically unstoppable at home (1 loss to Collingwood) and they have won 9 of 10. This is also their 3rd week in a row at home due to a real anomaly in the draw but its sure to have them cherry ripe with no travel for a month. It’s hard to comprehend that this side could go from 15th to the AFL Grand Final the next season.
Geelong – frequent flyer points soaring
Geelong on the other hand has been to Sydney and Perth in two of the last three weeks and now on the plane to Brisbane! Geelong got back to more the way they want to play and were manic defensively holding North Melbourne to 1 goal last week. It was a powerful performance by the Cats and their defense versus the Lions attacking style will be a real key here. Sit back and watch the story unfold!
Key numbers for Lions and Cats
It was back in 2013 since Brisbane last beat Geelong and it was by a solitary point. The last five head to clashes has seen convincing Geelong victories by an average of 61 points per game. Two of those five have been at the Gabba where we are here and they were large Geelong wins as well. The games have been high scoring and Geelong has kicked well north of 100+ points in each of these games of recent times. Brisbane has been unable to kick over 78 points.
This Brisbane side that is so much stronger than days gone by. They rank 1 in the AFL for points for and have been a scoring machine of recent times. Geelong rank 2 in the AFL points for and 1 points against. We will find out much about the Lions here as they take on the top ranked side in the AFL. Both sides come off big peak performances last week so once again it’s a no bet game as they void each other as a bettng option.
Adelaide versus Collingwood – Rd 22 Saturday twilight
Another huge game in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday twilight as Adelaide take on Collingwood at the Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide is percentage outside of the AFL Top 8 and Collingwood are a game outside of the AFL Top 4. So there is so much on the line in this contest to see where these two sides end up in the AFL Finals 2019. Adelaide haven’t played Collingwood since round 4 2018 on a very wet night in Adelaide that heralded the arrival of the “new” Pies. This also consolidated their solid travel record and prior to that was the draw that had halted a 4-0 run Adelaide had against Collingwood.
Collingwood – heavy injury list
Collingwood have a heavy injury toll, and did all they needed to do against the Demons last week. But you would think they will need to bring more here to take care of Adelaide. The Crows were brave in the West last week going down narrowly against a genuine contender in the Eagles. If they bring that sort of effort they will go a long way to winning this game, Adelaide simply have to win their last 2 games to give themselves a chance at playing AFL Finals, this is one they are certainly capable of taking. Collingwood need a win to keep a top 4 spot alive.
AFL Betting Tips – key numbers
Collingwood has won the last two head to head but Adelaide had won the three prior of the last five. Round 18 last year was the last time they played and that was a 106-58 Collingwood win at Adelaide Oval where we are here. In 2017 it was a 103-103 draw at the MCG and in 2016 a 16 point Adelaide win but the other recent games have been larger margins.
Total points game average has been a high of 206 in the drawn game and a low of 153 points giving an average of 174 points per game. Both teams come off double peak performances line cover the last two weeks and once again they void each other as a betting prospect. The odds started even money early in week and the money support has been for the Crows who are now -8.5. No bet and a sit and watch in a crucial finals aspiration game.
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
It’s a big AFL Betting Tips Saturday night game as North Melbourne face Port Adelaide. With the AFL Finals beckoning for Port Adelaide they simply need to keep winning to secure September action.
Human Behaviour Model – looking for the bounce off the peak
This is a key game that stands up very well under our Human Behaviour model given the disparity in performance of these two sides last week. North Melbourne have to be stung off a disgraceful effort last week recording the lowest score ever in the clubs history (1.8). It is going to be very important to see how North respond under newly appointed coach Rhyce Shaw and they need a big bounce of that shocker!!
Port Adelaide – peak performances
Port Adelaide on the other hand need to prove themselves, they have finally won back to back matches for the first time since Round 6. They now have a level of expectation on them as they are currently in the AFL Finals Top 8. The history has been that when Port Adelaide have expectation they crumble and the reverse is also true. Coach Ken Hinkley has made some key selections recently and the tall timber of Port Adelaide has really been performing. This has enabled them a seismic shift in scoring over the last fortnight averaging 115 points in that time.
AFL key numbers –
Round 3 of 2014 is the last time North has beaten Port Adelaide. Of the last five head to head there has been two close games of which one was this year in Round 6 an 88-72 Port win. The other three games have all been convincing Port wins both in Adelaide and Marvel where we are here. Last year it was Port 102-69 at Marvel. Four of the last five Port has kicked well in excess of 100+ points per game and North has not kicked over 100 points against Port since 2015. Total game score average last five has been 183 points per game and we get 166.5 from the bookies here.
Port is off a big double peak performance line cover here with high scores and wins the last fortnight. We look to North to bounce off last weeks poor loss and will take them here coupled with Ports peak run.
North Melbourne 1.5 unit +4.5 and .5 unit win $2.10
Fremantle versus Essendon – Saturday night AFL
Our AFL Betting Tips Saturday night game sees Fremantle take on the free falling Essendon.
The Bombers are in struggle town and in serious danger of missing the AFL Finals despite sitting in 7th spot a game clear going into this. Essendon were disgraceful last week conceding a near record 21 unanswered goals. It’s difficult to comprehend in this day and age that something like that could occur, but to be honest its Essendon’s achilles heel. If they don’t get the game their way, their ability to defend is non existent and it was putrid on the weekend. Worsfold though is a level headed experienced campaigner and does have a history of pulling a result when needed so the message is beware the wounded Bomber.
Fremantle cost themselves a late charge at the AFL Finals last week conceding a 9 point lead late in the game to go down. It’s the 4th straight year in a row under Ross Lyon they have missed the AFL Finals so questions must be asked and answered about his future there. This is a must win game for Essendon but they have not won in Perth against the Dockers since 2013 losing their last 5 in the West against the purple haze.
AFL Betting Tips – The key numbers
Essendon has won three of the last five head to head clashes including round 9 this year by 7 points in a low scoring 60-53 win at Marvel. We get the nice sample here as they have played each other five times in the last two years. The games have been relatively tight with an average margin of 21 points per game, the closest being this years 7 point result. Fremantle has been strong at home this year winning 7 games whilst the Bombers have won 2 on the road.
Total game score average the last five varies from the low 113 points this year to 199 points at Marvel in 2017 giving us an average of 175 points against the bookies 157.5. Fremantle comes off a tight line cover last week in its narrow loss but a peak performance all the same. We will take Essendon here to bounce off last weeks extremely poor performance.
Essendon 1 unit +11.5 and .5 unit win $2.35