AFL Betting Tips – Friday night from Canberra
Friday night AFL Betting Tips footy heads to the nations capital as the GWS Giants take on Hawthorn at UNSW Oval Canberra.
This is a massive game for the Giants who need to keep winning to give themselves an AFL Top 4 chance as they currently sit a game outside the Top 4. The Giants were absolutely embarrassed by the Hawks earlier in the year at the MCG being held to their lowest score for the year (38 points). Coach Leon Cameron called his sides efforts “non AFL” standard and they will be looking to avenge this embarrassment.
Hawthorn was pedestrian after quarter time last week. They kicked four goals in the opening term only to add another five for the game, and they conceded 11 goals after quarter time. Canberra can be a tough venue to combat. Clarkson and his men will need to bring their best to make sure they don’t get mauled by a Giants outfit who need to make a statement.
AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers
Three of the last five head to head between the two has resulted in margins under 10 points including a draw. Round 8 this years was a 71-38 Hawthorn win at the MCG. We are in Canberra here and this adds a new dimension to the game. Both teams are 3-2 in the AFL last five weeks with GWS winning three in a row and Hawks losing their last two. Total game scores last five head to head ranges from a low 109 points this year to 241 points in 2016 with a 158-83 Giants win. The other four head to heads recently has resulted in a very high average 205 points per game. We get 145.5 from the bookies so the over is worth a look however the weather is forecast rain in Canberra. A no bet game here as despite GWS winning last week neither side covered the line voiding each other of a bet. No bet.
AFL Betting Tips – Melbourne v Collingwood
Saturday afternoon AFL Betting Tips footy heads to the MCG in what looks on paper to be a big mismatch with Collingwood playing Melbourne.
Collingwood are looking to recapture some strong form before the AFL Finals and their win last week over the lowly Gold Coast Suns was nothing to give any confidence that they are “back”. They will need to dispose of Melbourne in similar fashion to suggest they are on the right path. Collingwood easily accounted for the Demons in the Queens Birthday game and it’s fair to say the Demons have not gone forward since that encounter. The margin was flattering for the Demons last week as Richmond were bad in front of goal, but there is some hope the Demons can galvanise against the “old foe”.
And the key stats
Collingwood has won the last three head to head including this year round 12 with a 98-57 win at the MCG. All recent games are at the G and we go back to 2017 for the last Melbourne win 104-100 in a tight one. Two of the last five have been tight average margin 10 points per game but the other three margin in the mid 40 point range. Total average game scores last five head to head is a high 186 points per game with the recent low the last clash this year. The bookies have it a 145.5 so is worth a look despite likely wet conditions at the G. Collingwood does come off the peak win last week and Melbourne has lost its last four and we will take Melbourne in a small investment looking for the bounce performance.
Melbourne 1 unit +15.5 and .5 unit win $2.70
Port Adelaide versus Sydney
Port Adelaide take on the Sydney Swans in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday afternoon clash as the Power look to keep their AFL Finals hopes alive.
They are a game outside the AFL Top 8 and simply need to keep winning to keep their 2019 AFL Finals hopes alive. These two sides have not played at Adelaide Oval since 2015 when Sydney destroyed Port Adelaide by 48 points. In fact they have only played once in the last 62 games, quite an anomaly of the AFL Draw. However Port Adelaide has won the last 2 contests both at the SCG.
Sydney are a young revitalised group who are clearly in a development phase however they have shown they can put together strong patches of footy. Port Adelaide need to be wary here. This is a chance for Port Adelaide to break their pattern as they actually need to win a game they are expected to win or 2019 will be dust.
AFL Betting Tips – the numbers
Port has won the last two head to head after Sydney had won the three prior. The last five head to head games have been at the SCG and we go back to 2015 since they played in Adelaide where we are here. In the AFL Sydney has lost its last five games whilst Port has bookend win in between three losses. There has only been one tight game of the last five head to head, 10 points in 2015. The other recent games has been an average margin of 42 points per game. Average total game score average last five head to head is 160 points per game and we get 146.5 from the bookmakers. Both teams come off peak performances last week with Ports big win and Swans 2 point loss but line cover. This game becomes a no bet game and the line is steady -16.5 Port.
Q Clash – Brisbane v Gold Coast
The Saturday AFL Betting Tips Twilight match heads to the Gabba where the all conquering Brisbane Lions take on the all losing Gold Coast Suns.
These sides could not be further apart in their form lines as Gold Coast have lost 15 in a row and Brisbane have won their last 7 on the trot. Brisbane flogged the Suns earlier this season when Gold Coast were actually going ok. This has 10 goals plus written all over it. The question has to be how does Stewart Dew get his side to commit everything they have when clearly there is nothing on the end of it? The only danger here is that Brisbane treat this as an “easy” game and fail to bring the competitive combative nature that has got them to this point. This is possible as they have the league leading Geelong next week and this could be a classic “look ahead” game.
The key numbers
The above comment about Brisbane looking ahead to next week does have merit however neither Gold Coast or Brisbane covered the line last week. Had Brisbane have covered this would have fit beautifully into the Human Behaviour Model. So it becomes a no bet game as both teams void each other.
Three of the last five head to heads have been tight with an average margin of 4 points per game. We get the nice sample here as they play each other twice a year and the last five games go back to only late 2017. Brisbane has won four of the last five head to head. The Gold Coast win was 2018 with a 5 point win at the Gabba where we are here. This years game at Metricon on the Coast was a 111-62 Brisbane win. The total game score average between the two is average 179 points per game. Brisbane rank 1 points for and will be looking for a field day here with Gold Coast rank 18 points for. A no bet game as we have stated above.
Essendon versus Bulldogs
Our Saturday night AFL Betting Tips match heads to Marvel stadium as Essendon take on the Western Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are possibly done for 2019 after their loss last week and this is the first time these two sides play each other this year. Western Bulldogs have won their last four matches against Essendon averaging a score of 112 points, so they will fancy their chances against the Bombers outfit who were exposed badly by Port Adelaide last week.
Essendon are a game behind Collingwood and sit in 7th spot on the AFL Premiership ladder. They need to keep winning to try and get themselves an AFL Finals home game in week 1 or they risk having to go to Giants Stadium in the first week of the AFL Finals series. Essendon had some key illness/injury issues last week that offered some reason for their sub par effort. They can quickly get back to their best and bounce back to their previous peak run where they had won 5 in a row.
AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers
Bulldogs have won the last four head to head and by a healthy margin of 45 points per game. This includes a high of 87 points in the 2015 premiership year. The Bulldogs have managed to kick close on 100+ points in each of those wins and the last five head to head average total game score is a high 184 points per game. The high was 2017 with 224 points for the game. The closest of the last five was Essendon’s 7 point win in 2015. All recent games have been at Etihad. The Bulldogs come here off a two game peak performance run. We are going to take Essendon here looking for a bounce off last week’s loss on the back of the Bulldogs peak run.
Essendon 2 units +1.5
Geelong v North Melbourne
Geelong takes on North Melbourne in a crucial AFL Saturday night Betting Tips game at GMHBA Stadium.
Geelong are under the microscope in the AFL Betting Tips season which is quite remarkable for a side that is a game clear on top of the AFL Premiership ladder. They have lost 4 of their last 7 games and the air of invincibility they had winning 11 of the first 12 games has diminished rapidly.
They take on the rejuvenated North Melbourne who have been on a successful run since the “caretaker coach” Rhyce Shaw has been in charge. Geelong certainly have the wood on the Kangaroos winning their last 4 games but they will be happy to get back to GMHBA Stadium as they had played some home games against North Melbourne in recent times at Marvel.
The key numbers
Geelong has won the last four head to head games including 104-80 win at Marvel. There has only bee on tight game which was the high scoring 112-111 Geelong 1 point win in 2017. The other four of last five has an average win margin of 27 points per game. The most recent game at GMHBA Stadium last year was a 96-59 Geelong win. Total game scores of last five games has a range of 154-223 points per game with an average of 188 points per game. The bookies are putting up 146.5 because the game is at GMHBA rather than indoors at Marvel. North comes off the big peak performance win over Hawthorn last week and we will take Geelong looking for the bounce at home.
Geelong 1 unit win $1.35 and .5 unit -22.5
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