AFL Betting Tips – a look at Round 2
In AFL Betting Tips round We had 4 line handicap bets for AFL Round 2 with 2 winning bets. They were both close ones with Eagles a 1 point loss but covering the +7.5 line we recommended. Hawthorn just covered the line of +32.5 as recommended in a 19 point loss to Richmond. Essendon and North both were big lines but could not cover in poor losses. Their losses exacerbate what appears to be a divergence between the good and not so good for AFL 2021.
This does not necessarily affect us from an AFL Betting perspective. However as the game has become quicker so has it become tougher for teams to defend. That said large unbeaten goal runs is a clear indicator that the game is more attacking on the back of the rule changes to the man on the mark and less interchange rotations. Here is our review of AFL Betting Tips round 2 as we move to AFL Tips round 3 out this Thursday.
Collingwood one up on struggling Carlton
The big question was where were the Pies goals going to come from against Carlton. Buckley made a very shrewd move playing his important mid/forward Jordan De Goey in a permanent forward role and reaped immediate dividends with 4 first half goals. This no doubt won them the game. The jury is still out on the Pies as twice they allowed the Blues to come back from 5 goals down to within a kick. Carlton once again showed good signs but until they play 4 quarters of footy they will forever struggle. Carlton still has some work ahead and Collingwood got the win they desperately needed. Jury is still out on these two sides with Collingwood playing Brisbane and Carlton versus GWS.
Geelong Cats in great escape over Brisbane Lions
Whichever way you look at it Geelong escaped out of jail. That said it is a bit rich blaming an umpire for an error when players continually make skill errors and miss goals straight in front. But it was a real howler the last seconds from kick not giving to the Lions and it would have been certain victory.
For a lot of the night Geelong were the better side however in just one quarter of footy they were comprehensively outplayed and but for inaccuracy (a common Brisbane theme for the last 3 years) and the howler non decision by an umpire the Lions should’ve taken the points. The normally composed Chris Scott was notably ruffled when he tried to attack the Lions huddle at quarter time. Some may see it as a “fly the flag” moment for his players but it looked a little more like a man under pressure trying to exert some influence over the game. Brisbane now is 0-2 and with only 5 of the last 58 sides to go 0-2 to play finals they have the job ahead. Brisbane plays Collingwood in what was the Easter Thursday home game but now is in Melbourne. Geelong fronts up to Hawthorn on Easter Monday.
Buddy Franklin back as Sydney Swans go 2-0 as Crows lose
It has been 18 months in the making but Buddy is BACK and it would appear so are the Sydney Swans. The big shift here for the Swans is their scores for in 2 games this year. They rank #1 in the AFL for points for in kicking over 100+ points in both games. The Swans are well coached and have recruited and developed talent will through their Swans Academy. The teach their players how to defend and then talent comes to the fore as they expand that into an attacking game style. They may well be the big improver in 2021.
The Crows began well and had a two goal lead in the first term before the Swans went on a rampage kicking 10 of the next 11 goals. This is both a big worry for Adelaide and continues the theme of teams getting big momentum runs with the rule changes. The Crows had heir chances but kicked poorly and Sydney was able to capitalise and run out strong winners in the end. Tex has really wound back the clock he kicked 6 goals here after 5 goals last week that’s 11 goals in 2 weeks. He only kicked 15 for the whole year in 2020! Sydney a real test next week versus Richmond and Adelaide are in a must win Good Friday game versus the Suns.
Essendon Bombers pulverised by powerful Port Adelaide
Essendon still don’t know how to defend after many years of one way running and then surrendering a 39 point lead last week. It was more of the same from the Bombers again on Saturday and whatever it is new coach Rutten is trying to teach is going to take time. Year after year Essendon talk themselves up and year after year they let their supporters down. They are a shell of a club from days gone by and the numbers support this.
Port Adelaide are at anther level and play full of run and energy, attacked hard and kicked goals scoring 119 points for the game. They have a telling fortnight ahead West Coast in Perth and Richmond in Adelaide will tell them a bit about where they are. Ben Rutten promised a more “blue collar” Essendon and we haven’t seen it and they need to learn to defend. Port travel to West Coast whilst Essendon play St Kilda.
Melbourne Demons 2-0 start as St Kilda struggle in “Spuds” game
It was a game dedicated to one of the St Kilda greats Danny “Spud” Frawley. The pre game speech by Garry Lyon, Stewart Loewe and to have Tony Lockett stand right there with them was something to see. Melbourne were the big query team of 2021 but the Demons appear to be on the right track after two below par years. It was a scratchy win in round 1 but this game against the Saints was a lot more convincing. St Kilda will rue poor disposal and its not totally outlandish to suggest with better skills they would have created a lot more opportunities. But at the end of the day 31 shots on goal by Melbourne versus 18 for the Saints shows the true gap. St Kilda need to get back on track quickly with Essendon this week but then it’s the Eagles and Tigers! Big opportunity for the Demons as they face the GWS Giants for a 3-0 start.
Gold Coast Suns smash low level Kangaroos
After a promising opening term (again) the Kangaroos simply hoisted the white flag forcing coach David Noble to say “what was delivered tonight is not on”. Its all good and well to say that but the fix is not so clear. Time is one thing North has on their side with everyone expecting them to be down the bottom. But you want to see effort and some semblance of how they want to play, we are not seeing this yet.
It was a big win for the Suns coming off a big effort in the West in round 1. A stunning 6 goal second term and they put the game to bed. The scoring power the Suns have is strong and they appear to be well coached and buying into a game plan. They play Adelaide in Adelaide this week and have a strong chance here whilst North plays the in form Bulldogs.
Richmond Tigers do it with plenty in reserve over Hawks
Its not often you can say at the top level in sport that you did it on your ear but that was the case with the Tigers on Sunday. Richmond got out to a good start and held nearly a 4 goal lead from this point. It was like the older brother holding the younger brother at arms lengths while he was swinging punches!! The Tigers have been at the top of the tree for 5 years and this game was very much them playing at half rat power. But such is their strength they have the ability to swift momentum as they choose against lesser sides.
The Hawks were scrambly and bought some effort but there was a clear class differential between these two sides. The big line in a potential low scoring game we saw as an opportunity for Hawthorn but class won the day here. Richmond fronts to young Sydney Swans side that is alive and Hawthorn looking for a bounce play Geelong on Easter Monday.
Western Bulldogs Dogs win over Eagles in high quality match
The Dogs have got their season if to a 2-0 start and their win over a possible contender in the Eagles was full of merit. It was a high quality game that showed us the rule changes working at their best and it was a nice line handicap bet for us Eagles and oh so close to the win bet.
The Bulldogs looked gone for all money 14 points down in the last quarter and one Eagles goal away from defeat before the Bulldogs steeled themselves kicking 5 goals to 2 in the last quarter to get home in a classic. In truth the Eagles had too many passengers through the midfield and if it wasn’t for a Nic Nat charge in the second half (he had 40 hit outs and 11 clearances!!!) the game would’ve been toasted. For the Dogs “The Bont” was the star and looks in Brownlow Medal winning for in the early season. The Eagles have a big week of soul searching after an unconvincing win against the Gold Coast and a loss to the Dogs they take on Port Adelaide. Western Bulldogs are on a double peak run and can go 3-0 with a Good Friday win over the lowly Kangaroos.
Dockers deliver giant blow to GWS
Things are starting to look very gloomy over at Western Sydney. Their lack of competitive effort would be screaming alarm bells after they went 0-2 for the first time in a season since 2013. The Dockers had this one under control from the start with a real lift in skill execution seeing them a class above the Giants. Fyfe was subbed out with concussion so will miss a game but that made the win all that more meritorious. The Dockers have promised a bit and now have set a new benchmark. As for the Giants Leon Cameron has some real issues. The lack of hardness from a formerly hard side smells of something off at the club. They have a must win clash against an undefeated Melbourne whilst Fremantle play Carlton and will give themselves a chance here.
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